HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Kevin to ORH is going to just get absolutely crushed I think.. East over by TAN/BOX/Bob and Foxboro is my thinking for highest totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah. Some seem to be like 'wtf it's a historic storm just enjoy it, don't worry about jackpotting' - I disagree. I think of course I would like to be in a jackpot. Everyone does at heart. But my true interest lies in trying to find out where the banding and localized jacks will occur. These massive storms don't happen often. This is an opportunity to study many different things right now. Trying to nail down the heavier jacks is extremely tough and I'm very much mesmerized by the situation. This is alarmingly similar to 78' in some ways. The winds will be high, snow totals will be off the charts, there will be coastal flooding. I actually think the snowfall total map from that storm will not be far off from the impending blizzard coming tomorrow. I was naturally not even close to being alive for 78'. How does the impacts compare from that storm to this one? Well, for one thing the Blizzard of 78 had 4 astronomical high tides, this one supposed to have 2. City of Boston was shut down for days. RTE 128 was clogged with vehicles after a tractor trailer jackknifed. We did get to meet a lot of neighbors since walking was the only form or transportation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Ugh...such a tough forecast here. I hate being on the western fringe of these coastals all the time. It's basically our version of trying to forecast the rain/snow line on the coast. The 12z Euro clobbers W MA, W CT, down to NYC with a deformation band that basically sets up and rots over us, while the 18z GFS and NAM are a hair east and keeps us out of the best of it. So, will this be a 12/26/10, 1/12/11 or 10/29/11 redux or will this be like Nemo and the firehose storms in 2013 where I got robbed? The former 3 were all great storms here, but the latter 2 were classic screw jobs. Nemo was especially painful watching the death band pivot northwest to a point and then stopping just short of here before beginning its collapse to the SE. I'm already feeling a bit like MPM and having my share of QPF worries. I may need get myself and as many people as I can to go outside and blow as hard as they can toward the west. It might just work, lol. You must ride the Euro until it's track gives you less than 3' of snow. In that case it must be wrong so embrace the GFS. Good luck to all. I'm hoping my flight gets canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Agreed. I think there's a relative -- emphasis on relative -- screw zone between there and a coastal front which may be where snows also linger strongest and longest. A little nervous, but whatever. Looks like a fun storm.The damn thing does a loop dee loop south of us. Gonna be a ton of nowcasting. Be happy we aren't in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Eric fisher is the most aggressive on air met I've seen so far. 20-30 with isolated 36 from Boston to SE mass through Rhode island eastern conn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 . East over by TAN/BOX/Bob and Foxboro is my thinking for highest totals Some of those locals will push for 40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The damn thing does a loop dee loop south of us. Gonna be a ton of nowcasting. Be happy we aren't in NYC. Like I said, relative. Generally speaking, I'm thrilled about what looks like its about to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Man people are in good moods. Everyone loves blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 First call for me will be 22" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 . East over by TAN/BOX/Bob and Foxboro is my thinking for highest totalsI think draw a box Boston > Canal > New Bedford > Providence > Boston... it's similar to the jack region of 78 in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This is insane........that is all. chartreuse, that is all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Well, for one thing the Blizzard of 78 had 4 astronomical high tides, this one supposed to have 2. City of Boston was shut down for days. RTE 128 was clogged with vehicles after a tractor trailer jackknifed. We did get to meet a lot of neighbors since walking was the only form or transportation... Also, wasn't there a forecast bust shortly beforehand which deteriorated confidence at a time when forecasting capability was far less than today's still far-less-than-perfect world? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Eric fisher is the most aggressive on air met I've seen so far. 20-30 with isolated 36 from Boston to SE mass through Rhode island eastern conn. He's actually tamer than NWS... In fact, most I'm talking to think that 24-36" is overdone. 00z should be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Go big, you can always adjust downward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Sbos can u scientifically explain why your thinking NYC bust, euro has shown 3 straight consistent runs of 30+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 He's actually tamer than NWS... In fact, most I'm talking to think that 24-36" is overdone. 00z should be interesting... Thats a hell of a lot of snow to be forecasting, thats for sure. Especially when it was still easy to go up at a later time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Sbos can u scientifically explain why your thinking NYC bust, euro has shown 3 straight consistent runs of 30+ How much more consistent can it get.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Good luck up there, guys. Stay safe, and don't get in-grass, in-drift, slant-stick measurements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 18-30 everywhere and adjust if necessary for everyone except for perhaps MPM, Mitch, Hippy where I might start 14-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Like I said, relative. Generally speaking, I'm thrilled about what looks like its about to happen. OES saves us I think. This is why I'll be riding it out in Southie, not Andover. That and there is food in the fridge at my parents and not at school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Old school stuff but the gathering cirrus I. The sw sky at sunset warmed my heart like pre storm times of my boyhood. It's coming!All day Jerry everytime I went outside it was obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Kevin to ORH is going to just get absolutely crushed I think.Yea, I'm worried about being in between...like Dec 03, PD II, and Boxing day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Any ideas on how intense flooding will be? Any storms to compare to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Way too soon to worry about jacks or issue congrats. Everyone here gets at least 16-18. Nothing wrong with that. We'll see what areas get under the bands . Just too much hand wringing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think draw a box Boston > Canal > New Bedford > Providence > Boston... it's similar to the jack region of 78 in the end.Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Sbos can u scientifically explain why your thinking NYC bust, euro has shown 3 straight consistent runs of 30+ I'm looking at the mid level rh/omega etc. Euro has the westward path of the storm. All the other models are further east with the stall. Euro is damned good but I think a little too far west. It's all about the path and the track. I think 24-36" was absolutely ridiculous of a guess for that area, especially with the model question marks and lack of a consensus for such a high amount in that area. The slight ticks SE in all other modeling today leads me to believe that the euro will correct itself east. I thought earlier today it might be the other way around; with the other modeling ticking west toward the euro. It seems as if naturally the only thing for the euro to do is to make a slight change to the east. NYC will still have a very good snowstorm, but 24-36" seems high. I could see that over LI up into E CT and up into ORH. That is the edge of the extent of the mid level dry slot on the majority of modeling. Usually there is a very intense mid level fronto band right on the edge of the dry slot. I just don't think there is enough time for that much snow to fall near NYC. 2-3 feet? A track like that historically favors any amounts to that extreme in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 You must ride the Euro until it's track gives you less than 3' of snow. In that case it must be wrong so embrace the GFS. Good luck to all. I'm hoping my flight gets canceled. You flying out of BDL on Tuesday? If so, I'd say you'll more than likely get cancelled. BDL stands to be a somewhat better position than us. I have higher confidence of 18"+ totals east of the CT River in MA and south of the CT/MA border than I do west or north of those points. The 00z suite should hopefully help to pin down the position of the low better. Is it south of ACK or MTK? Makes a big difference in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Congrats on the storm guys. Make sure to take lots of video for me during the most intense stuff! Let it rain dendrites! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yea, I'm worried about being in between...like Dec 03, PD II, and Boxing day I think you have reason to be a little bit worried if you wanted a jackpot. I still think you see 15-25" without a problem. It isn't 24-36" but we can go years without having a 15-25" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 My guess is somewhat north and west of the 1978 maximum axis. NW RI, NE CT, ORH, to LWM 25-30 miles either side. But all depends on where bands set up. Maybe secondary max on Eastern slopes of Berks, if the storm is slightly west or does loup de loups. Ain't no one gonna get under a foot in this NWS region except maybe the outer Cape and Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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