Jenkins Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Monday NightSnow with areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. Windy, with a northeast wind 20 to 25 mph increasing to 26 to 31 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible. TuesdaySnow with areas of blowing snow before 4pm, then snow likely with areas of blowing snow after 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 25. Windy, with a north wind 24 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. The P & C forecasts are wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I disagree, this is a all timer so go balls to the wall and let the public know what they are in for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Those 24 to 36 inch maps are incredible to see I don't think they are very realistic, honestly... I think 18 to 24" might even be a tad high, but I would stop there, and then say "maybe" 30" in some isolated areas. It's really hard to get that much storm output over that much geographical area, and as these 18z runs are coming in ...or shall we say, panicky looking (ha), there's obviously enough uncertainty here to go shy of those exotic numbers over such a large area ... and strongly word if you need to bias it more. Now, 50, 000,000 people are dusting off their yardsticks and it's just going to give fuel to Meteorological mockery that pervades culture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Not Worcester probably. Southborough and east is probably the most generous definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I meant in relation to every other WFO. I think they're pretty spot on. Might be a spot 24" here and there, but not enough to warrant its own contour. I would rather see them have to bump up then go down, But if 0z models hold or shift the deformation band higher qpf further north then, Sure, Bump them up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 TWC still doesn't have live coverage of this. What a joke.Your best bet is to change the channel and never go back for anything to do with forecasts. So many other places to get better quality information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Praying my wife doesn't go in to labor at the height of the storm. Her due date was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I don't think they are very realistic, honestly... I think 18 to 24" might even be a tad high, but I would stop there, and then say "maybe" 30" in some isolated areas. It's really hard to get that much storm output over that much geographical area, and as these 18z runs are coming in ...or shall we say, panicky looking (ha), there's obviously enough uncertainty here to go shy of those exotic numbers of such a large area. Yeah, agreed. It's tough to get 24"+ over suhc a large area. I'd want to see almost uniform 2.5-3"+ qpf over the whole region. The storm does stall in a great spot for SNE which helps but I'm not confident enough to forecast those amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Ugh. What a year to go to college in Oklahoma. 60's every day this week... I feel like BOX isn't quite on the banding bandwagon (so to speak) quite yet, which makes sense due to the bouncing about. The widespread 24-36 must be them guessing at that screw zone. But remembering Nemo, someone is going to pull 40+ out of this, with such banding and moisture. I'd bet good money its somewhere on a line from ORH to Nashua, down to the CT coast. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 TWC still doesn't have live coverage of this. What a joke. 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The euro is certainly the king of models but it seems to be the western outlier right now compared to all other guidance. I think it ticks back e/se tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah, agreed. It's tough to get 24"+ over suhc a large area. I'd want to see almost uniform 2.5-3"+ qpf over the whole region. The storm does stall in a great spot for SNE which helps but I'm not confident enough to forecast those amounts. There's exactly 0% chance of those widespread 2-3 ft maps verifying, but it makes sense because there will surely be pockets of those amounts in there. Wouldn't be wise to try and pin those down yet so might as well broad brush and prepare the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah, agreed. It's tough to get 24"+ over suhc a large area. I'd want to see almost uniform 2.5-3"+ qpf over the whole region. The storm does stall in a great spot for SNE which helps but I'm not confident enough to forecast those amounts. Most people dont know the difference between 18" and 30" anyway...they just see alot of snow. Get the word out this could be multiple feet and let it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The NWS had me in 1 to 3 ft in the zones for the superstorm of 93. 75 years ago, they said it might rain sometime that week or it might not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Praying my wife doesn't go in to labor at the height of the storm. Her due date was yesterday.. Good luck. We had our daughter the day after PDII. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I don't think they are very realistic, honestly... I think 18 to 24" might even be a tad high, but I would stop there, and then say "maybe" 30" in some isolated areas. It's really hard to get that much storm output over that much geographical area, and as these 18z runs are coming in ...or shall we say, panicky looking (ha), there's obviously enough uncertainty here to go shy of those exotic numbers of such a large area. If you didn't clear a snowboard every 6 hours what do you think the reading would be if 24" fell with 10-12/1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Praying my wife doesn't go in to labor at the height of the storm. Her due date was yesterday. Wow - that is rough. Is it possible to rent a hotel room near the hospital? Also - congrats! First one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The euro is certainly the king of models but it seems to be the western outlier right now compared to all other guidance. I think it ticks back e/se tonight.. For some non-scientific reason I agree jay. The Ensm were east of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The euro is certainly the king of models but it seems to be the western outlier right now compared to all other guidance. I think it ticks back e/se tonight. Some of us thought that at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I thought this was interesting. Tiny ribbons of 25 degree celcius (77 Farenheit) in the Gulf Stream just east of North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Most people dont know the difference between 18" and 30" anyway...they just see alot of snow. Get the word out this could be a few feet and let it play out. Does it even make any sense to have such massive margins? I mean, 1-3 or 3-6 versus 24-36... I feel like one of these is not like the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Praying my wife doesn't go in to labor at the height of the storm. Her due date was yesterday. Many times these strong low air pressure storms induce labor. Happened to us with my oldest daughter during Hurricane Isabel in 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Wow - that is rough. Is it possible to rent a hotel room near the hospital? Also - congrats! First one? #4. my third boy. the ironic thing is when my wife told me she was pregnant and what the due date was, the first words out of my mouth were "great now we can have a blizzard baby". I was conceived during the blizzard of 1978 I always thought that was really cool but it's a lot easier to conceive then give birth during a blizzard lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Praying my wife doesn't go in to labor at the height of the storm. Her due date was yesterday. Go to the hospital and stay there. No sense in tempting fate with such an important event. Also, congrats! Here's to many great storms with your new child!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Some of us thought that at 12z Yeah, it punches a dryslot well into the eastern half of sne at 7h. Not a preferred solution. It may be the best model but it certainly can get small details incorrect. rgem/nam/gfs/gem are all east of euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Praying my wife doesn't go in to labor at the height of the storm. Her due date was yesterday. It's going to be a memorable experience, be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm pretty confident BOS does really well. Not worried about all these maps and model runs. At this point it's just semantics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Many times these strong low air pressure storms induce labor. Happened to us with my oldest daughter during Hurricane Isabel in 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Your best bet is to change the channel and never go back for anything to do with forecasts. So many other places to get better quality information. Oh believe me, I don't go to them for forecasts. But I feel like many people do, which is why this is just sad and potentially dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah, it punches a dryslot well into the eastern half of sne at 7h. Not a preferred solution. It may be the best model but it certainly can get small details incorrect. rgem/nam/gfs/gem are all east of euro. nam is actually similar to euro. its gfs/rgem vs euro/nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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