SnowMan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Model trends are actually intensifying gradually, lower heights on RGEM for example at 48h. If this storm followed an ECM track with the RGEM upper trend superimposed 50 miles west, it would max out amounts all over western New England, Long Island and NYC, n NJ, so this may be why NWS has set the bar so high. There will be interesting details and variations, but basically a huge storm for the entire region with very few likely to see less than two feet. Local maxima could be 40-45 inches before drifting. Expect frequent thunder-snow Tuesday 15z to Wed 03z. Wind gusts may overperform gradient due to the rapid deepening expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. T-shirt weather here, perhaps almost as unlikely as this storm. Results to rival 1888? Possibly. x rated material right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NYC should be fine...but I would feel a bit nervous going for 24" minimum there. That could easily end up over LI instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 They're not. They look realistic. agree. i was shocked at Upton and Box being so widespread 2-3 ft. In the special weather statement issues just after 3 they had merrimack and belknap as getting 12-16 inches. I assume that was a mistake as we are in the 18-24 zone on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Think about how in 48 hours we went from models showing flurries to a crippling blizzard. We have a long way to go in the model world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Ryan's station going 15-30" for the entire state. That's a little bit punting IMO but I guess it's still early. I disagree. We simply aren't going to have a handle on where the best banding sets up until we're underway with the storm. Those under the best banding can hit 30" pretty easy. Those who miss out will be at the low end. Either way it's a lot of snow and high impact. But they could very easily put out a forecast of 12-20" for WCT and 20-30" for ECT and it verify the exact opposite. I think the big range conveys the uncertainty to the public but still emphasizes some places are gonna get slammed. If it was a forecast of 1.5-2.5" of rain for the state, would you feel the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Think about how in 48 hours we went from models showing flurries to a crippling blizzard. We have a long way to go in the model world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Just what comprises Eastern Mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NYC should be fine...but I would feel a bit nervous going for 24" minimum there. That could easily end up over LI instead. 10-20" NYC. 24-36" is off the rocker. That 24-36" Will Be LI-CT-ORH hills. N Shore to Canal in eastern mass has the secondary jackpot. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Think about how in 48 hours we went from models showing flurries to a crippling blizzard. We have a long way to go in the model world. Think about how in 48 hours we went from models showing flurries to a crippling blizzard. We have a long way to go in the model world. Long way to go in the forum world too because this is painful. It happens every single winter. Maybe one of these years it'll be fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 If it was a forecast of 1.5-2.5" of rain for the state, would you feel the same? Impacts would not even be close. Like I said, it's still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Ob thread meltdown climo usually runs from Tip-dom-ray I'll be in Haverhill, MA for this one. I think it helps my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Won't lie, it would be frustrating to end up "between" the band and coastal front, in what looks like a dead zone on a few models. I will sacrifice the necessary number of virgins this evening to guard against this. And scabies. It's kind of a multi-purpose spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Patience people.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Impacts would not even be close. Like I said, it's still early. The NWS had me in 1 to 3 ft in the zones for the superstorm of 93. 15-30" is fine. The ranges should increase as the totals get higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Don't forget after hr 48 there is a other band backing in. Doesn't show up there. Boston would catch up verbatim. Catch up? Even if not its still a pounding snowstorm with over 1" of QPF. They will be fine, but either way it's still a complete beast of a storm. I feel the stakes have been put so high, some are going to freak out if they *only* get 1-1.5" of QPF or something. The 24-36" forecasts are sort of over a ridiculous aerial coverage, setting expectations very high for this storm. That's a bigger forecast than February 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Which guidance is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I don't think the GYX totals are conservative at all really I meant in relation to every other WFO. I think they're pretty spot on. Might be a spot 24" here and there, but not enough to warrant its own contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Is this the whole storm? 8-12 in Boston seems rather low, based on any guidance I've seen. I see the tight gradient you have west but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Ob thread meltdown climo usually runs from Tip-dom-ray If there is subsidence, I think it's around 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 TWC still doesn't have live coverage of this. What a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This is insane........that is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 TWC still doesn't have live coverage of this. What a joke. They'll start tomorrow. But yes, they're turrable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Which guidance is this? It's sv for the euro which obviously is different from other vendor depictions whch show more widespread 2 feet+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Ugh...such a tough forecast here. I hate being on the western fringe of these coastals all the time. It's basically our version of trying to forecast the rain/snow line on the coast. The 12z Euro clobbers W MA, W CT, down to NYC with a deformation band that basically sets up and rots over us, while the 18z GFS and NAM are a hair east and keeps us out of the best of it. So, will this be a 12/26/10, 1/12/11 or 10/29/11 redux or will this be like Nemo and the firehose storms in 2013 where I got robbed? The former 3 were all great storms here, but the latter 2 were classic screw jobs. Nemo was especially painful watching the death band pivot northwest to a point and then stopping just short of here before beginning its collapse to the SE. I'm already feeling a bit like MPM and having my share of QPF worries. I may need get myself and as many people as I can to go outside and blow as hard as they can toward the west. It might just work, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 They're not. They look realistic. Seen how this can go many times before, You can always go up and the masses end up happy, Or things take the wrong turn and we are left with a bag of deflated footballs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Mystery Model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It's sv for the euro which obviously is different from other vendor depictions whch show more widespread 2 feet+. Looks low for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Just what comprises Eastern Mass? Not Worcester probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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