CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Don't forget after hr 48 there is a other band backing in. Doesn't show up there. Boston would catch up verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm with Mr. Windcredible. Don't think NYC verifies those amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Don't forget after hr 48 there is a other band backing in. Doesn't show up there. Boston would catch up verbatim. Yeah the backlash signal for E MA is strong...so even if they get some subsidence in the heart of it, they will get a lot of snow that drags on into Tues afternoon and Tues night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 12z / 18z RGEM with sharp subsidence zone depicted over North Shore / Boston, ~12" flanked by 20-30" in southeast MA and central MA... all of this subtle bouncing around won't be sorted out before 0z tonight imo, and might even be a nowcast similar to Feb 2013 given difficulty in handling multiple intense pieces of vorticity That subsidence zone sure is amplified on meso's and somewhat consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I see too many gfs/rgem forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Man the RGEM is a CT Blizz wet dream... definite cut-back on the RGEM and GFS to the west though on these runs. That precip cutoff is too drastic. That's like 1" qpf differential over 40 mi. from NW to SE. I can't see that happening with the storm this big and juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 For posterity: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GYX going conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Don't forget after hr 48 there is a other band backing in. Doesn't show up there. Boston would catch up verbatim. Too late, Ray already jumped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Usually the subsidence sets up a bit further north but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 That subsidence zone sure is amplified on meso's and somewhat consistent Keep in mind what Will and Scoot are saying about the depiction not actually showing the whole storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Wow, NWS ALB right there with BOX going big or goin' home. Hope that works out for W MA but nowcast will be what counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GYX more conservative than BOX's widespread 24-36. That stops right at the Mass NH border and becomes 18-24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Why does my blizzard warning tell me I am getting 20-30 but box's map shows 16-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Wow, NWS ALB right there with BOX going big or goin' home. Hope that works out for W MA but nowcast will be what counts. I agree HUGE bust potential for us all the way back to nyc... qpf for spfd has been 1 to 1.8 or so inches depending on the run etc....account for virga, being a little too wet etc could easily be more like a foot....banking on big ratios in a windy storm is dangerous ....50 mile shift east and it could be six inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Wow, NWS ALB right there with BOX going big or goin' home. Hope that works out for W MA but nowcast will be what counts. That precip cutoff is too drastic. That's like 1" qpf differential over 40 mi. from NW to SE. I can't see that happening with the storm this big and juiced. There's your gradient. Its going to be there and it'll be real. Just where does it set-up on the western side. That's like a 1-2 foot forecast drop over 2-3 counties in width. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Don't be concerned with amounts. Not sure I would go that widespread 24-36 like they did anyways. Those maps don't always jive anyways carver dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Why does my blizzard warning tell me I am getting 20-30 but box's map shows 16-24 Prob just them messing with you again Not everything can be coordinated equally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This site is awful. One event all winter and it doesn't f'ing work. I like the ticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Those 24 to 36 inch maps are incredible to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I see too many gfs/rgem forecasts. The rgem and gfs should not even be in the same sentance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Usually the subsidence sets up a bit further north but who knows Ob thread meltdown climo usually runs from Tip-dom-ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I don't think the GYX totals are conservative at all really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Model trends are actually intensifying gradually, lower heights on RGEM for example at 48h. If this storm followed an ECM track with the RGEM upper trend superimposed 50 miles west, it would max out amounts all over western New England, Long Island and NYC, n NJ, so this may be why NWS has set the bar so high. There will be interesting details and variations, but basically a huge storm for the entire region with very few likely to see less than two feet. Local maxima could be 40-45 inches before drifting. Expect frequent thunder-snow Tuesday 15z to Wed 03z. Wind gusts may overperform gradient due to the rapid deepening expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. T-shirt weather here, perhaps almost as unlikely as this storm. Results to rival 1888? Possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GFS move east places the deformation zone right over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Ryan's station going 15-30" for the entire state. That's a little bit punting IMO but I guess it's still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I don't buy such a widespread swatch of 24"+. No doubt those places places that get into the best banding are going to get hit hard...but huge bust potential, especially back toward NYC. Kinda surprised Upton went ballz to the wall back that way. Seems like they're setting themselves up for some backlash should NYC only get 12. For CT I'm thinking 16-24", with 24-30" east of the river. Certainly some 30"+ amounts a very real possibility, but I don't think it's wise to try to nail those down until things really get underway. I'm going 15-20 here right now, I don't want to go crazy without support beyond the UKMET/Euro so I'm just pumping amounts above most of the other guidance. I don't like the RGEM not wanting to bring the heavy snows back into NYC, its track is not necessarily east of the Euro by a ton but it seems to think the heavy bands will be mostly confined to CT/RI/MA and there will be some sort of subsidence on the SW portion of the band...of course it still drops almost 15 inches anyway and its out of range. I'm not sure I'd have gone 24-36 either without the support or in range of the high res models yet, 12-18 scares everyone effectively 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Why are so many of you doubting NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I don't think the GYX totals are conservative at all really They're not. They look realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The rgem and gfs should not even be in the same sentance they both show similar solutions. It does make me nervous a bit but im sticking with my calls. DXR: 26" BDR: 30" HVN: 32" BDL: 22" IJD: 25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.