weathafella Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Attleboro, Sharon, interior SE MA NW of TAN will jack IMO. '78 style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 My expectation here is 22-25 inches. Completely doable.You can always inflategate too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 My expectation here is 22-25 inches. Completely doable. 16-22'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 First guess for SE mass..... 16-20" isolated 22-24 16 inches down by the canal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Classic DT: "Undoubtedly because we live in the age of DISinformation as opposed to the age of science and information... some brain dead subhuman in the mainstream media is going to declare that this 'eye" is actually a "winter hurricane". It's nothing like that but you can rest assured that anyone giving you that information simply has no idea what they are talking about." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 No one is going to figure out the mins vs the maxes until it actually happens. Except I can tell you that from here to Pittsburgh, NH to Jackman, ME will be the New England minimum, but that's how these systems go. No biggie. Once south of like a Rutland to Laconia line, it's anyone's game. I think the dual jackpots makes sense from a climo standpoint, but where will those be? But climo usually says one jack near the best low level forcing (often on the coast) closer to the low, then another where the ML forcing lingers the longest. It makes sense. But where those exact spots are you won't know until game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Happy with anything over 12" out here although much more is certainly possible but all gravy after a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 A CF doesnt have to mean it's rain on the other side...sometimes it does, but in this case it isn't. Same deal in Boxing Day and Jan 2011 and many other storms...Feb '78 too. IT just meas that is the spot where the sfc temps are tightly packed in a gradient. Very true... and in this case, it's probably more like aggregate types that delineate. You're parachuting on the seaward side, ...maybe mixing or even flipping once in awhile on the actual arm of the Cape, but west of the boundary it's sand and small shattered aggregates going sideways, with street lamps reduced to ailing orbs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattm4242 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm not exactly an expert, but from what i've seen and read i feel like Lynn is a great spot for this, or any of the north shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Very true... and in this case, it's probably more like aggregate types that delineate. You're parachuting on the seaward side, ...maybe mixing or even flipping once in awhile on the actual arm of the Cape, but west of the boundary it's sand and small shattered aggregates going sideways, with street lamps reduced to ailing orbs... I don't think that's true. I think right at the cf and immediately west (<5 miles) you're parachuting in heaven while east your doing ok but struggling with ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Classic DT: "Undoubtedly because we live in the age of DISinformation as opposed to the age of science and information... some brain dead subhuman in the mainstream media is going to declare that this 'eye" is actually a "winter hurricane". It's nothing like that but you can rest assured that anyone giving you that information simply has no idea what they are talking about." He's actually entirely correct with that cynicism, because it's true -- it is waay too easy for media, press, the twit sphere ...what-have-you, to broadcast than it is for them to broadcast AFTER they've vetted the veracity of what they are saying. We live in an age of conviction and/or convicted by public opinion because of that too, which is unfortunate... But it does extend into the Meteorological field, because let's face it: As this storm will demonstrate, everyone living is affect (...if not effected) by weather events, so it's going to blaze up the media circuits with quite the fervor over the next 24 hours, and it's going to be downright amusing at times what we hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I don't think that's true. I think right at the cf and immediately west (<5 miles) you're parachuting in heaven while east your doing ok but struggling with ratios. Not always though...remember Jan 2011? BOS was on the eastward side of the CF for much of the storm and got walloped with 15" of paste and plenty of qpf. But you are right that sometimes it can be crappier snowfall rates on the seaward side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I don't think that's true. I think right at the cf and immediately west (<5 miles) you're parachuting in heaven while east your doing ok but struggling with ratios. My point was "aggregate delineating" -- not what actually happens. That was an afterthought. But we'll see... I think it could, looking at the soundings, be parachuting on the E side. This is some very arctic air (only delayed/offset by timing) moving in, and when this storm backs NW, the wind will be anomalously N relative to on-going heavier precipitation. The salted air and minimal oceanic warmth input can get those babies to clump rather efficiently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 No one is going to figure out the mins vs the maxes until it actually happens. Except I can tell you that from here to Pittsburgh, NH to Jackman, ME will be the New England minimum, but that's how these systems go. No biggie. Once south of like a Rutland to Laconia line, it's anyone's game. I think the dual jackpots makes sense from a climo standpoint, but where will those be? But climo usually says one jack near the best low level forcing (often on the coast) closer to the low, then another where the ML forcing lingers the longest. It makes sense. But where those exact spots are you won't know until game time. To re-iterate ... how could anyone when this... THE 12Z ECMWF, 12Z NAM, AND 12Z GFS HAVE WHAT APPEAR TO BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYES CONTAMINATING THEIR SOLUTIONS -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 '78 style.That's what I'm thinking I just hate to overuse that analogy. But man... it's 78-esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I understand 18ZNAM was initially weaker but then the phasing in vort was stronger and gave a great result. This from Gary Gray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Euro ens are east and not as tucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyMaN600 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Blizzard Warnings hoisted for S CT counties, NYC, lower Hudson valley, NE NJ and LI already, 20-30"+, 50+ mph winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I guess I can't attach images at the moment...but the State of CT going with what I would consider the worst (or best) case scenario for Emergency planning...18-24" western 1/4 of the state, 2-3' for the middle 1/2 of the state, and 3'+ in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Blizz Warning NYC zones and DE Maine. Will every coastal zone from NE Jersey to DE Maine be under a BW? Has that ever happened. Don't let us down Chris! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Euro ens are east and not as tucked You want that ML deform band bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Blizz Warning NYC zones and DE Maine. Will every coastal zone from NE Jersey to DE Maine be under a BW? Has that ever happened. Don't let us down Chris! Blizzard warnings granted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 OKX has 24-36" for all of CT, NYC, LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Expect your phones' emergency alerts to be buzzing when the blizzard warning is issued at 4 in E MA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 You want that ML deform band bad. I'll throw the weens a bone once we put image attachments back up. 1"+ is basically ALB-RUT-BML-MLT/BGR 1.5"+ CEF-MHT-SFM 2" jack just east of TAN Looks about 0.75"ish for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 OKX seems a bit aggressive with the Blizzard Warnings NW of NYC. BOX has yet to update but given the neighboring zones I expect them to convert all Blizzard watch areas to Blizzard Warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 OKX seems a bit aggressive with the Blizzard Warnings NW of NYC. BOX has yet to update but given the neighboring zones I expect them to convert all Blizzard watch areas to Blizzard Warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Wow at upton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 MEZ018>028-NHZ010-013-014-260500- /O.UPG.KGYX.WS.A.0004.150127T0300Z-150128T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KGYX.BZ.W.0001.150127T0300Z-150128T0900Z/ INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC- INTERIOR WALDO-COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN- KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM- COASTAL ROCKINGHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SANFORD...BERWICK...NORTH WINDHAM... GORHAM...BRIDGTON...LEWISTON-AUBURN...LIVERMORE FALLS...AUGUSTA... WATERVILLE...WINTERPORT...UNITY...BIDDEFORD...SACO... OLD ORCHARD BEACH...KITTERY...PORTLAND...SOUTH PORTLAND... WESTBROOK...BATH...TOPSHAM...BOOTHBAY HARBOR...WISCASSET... WALDOBORO...CAMDEN...ROCKLAND...THOMASTON...BELFAST... LINCOLNVILLE...ROCHESTER...DOVER...SALEM...DERRY...EXETER... PORTSMOUTH...HAMPTON 346 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND BY EARLY TUESDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS INTO CENTRAL MAINE. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SNOW WILL WIND DOWN LATE TUESDAY...BUT LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...8 TO 21 ABOVE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.