ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Thanks. Still appears to be snow for those areas though A CF doesnt have to mean it's rain on the other side...sometimes it does, but in this case it isn't. Same deal in Boxing Day and Jan 2011 and many other storms...Feb '78 too. IT just meas that is the spot where the sfc temps are tightly packed in a gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Jesus, that is fine....some of the descriptions threw me off. Sounded worse than it is. i'm fine with that. Yeah but it's still worthy of :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 They didn't jackpot though...that was less than BOS/ORH/Ray and of course CTI guess. I kinda lump CON in with the jackpots since they're all on the higher end.PWM 31.9" ORH 28.7" BOS 24.9" CON 24.0" BDL 22.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Question ... If this storm wound up just 10-15", but then the one at the end of the week upped to 10-15" ... would anyone be disappointed...? I'm ok with that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Folks ... even as near as 48-60 hours from max impact across SNE, I would caution you use the QPF/ and/or snow totals with a degree incredulity from all guidance. I discussed this yesterday and now NCEP is also latching on ... THE 12Z ECMWF, 12Z NAM, AND 12Z GFS HAVE WHAT APPEAR TO BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYES CONTAMINATING THEIR SOLUTIONS -- This system is a particular challenge even to the higher res, favorable scoring tools, due to it's anomalous characteristics. There are going to be details and nuances and idiosyncrasies endemic to big bombs/monster ilk going on, and the models will bicker and argue over what details emerge or don't. The convective scheming as this thing loops over the Gulf Stream for one ... heh, good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 A CF doesnt have to mean it's rain on the other side...sometimes it does, but in this case it isn't. Same deal in Boxing Day and Jan 2011 and many other storms...Feb '78 too. IT just meas that is the spot where the sfc temps are tightly packed in a gradient. Thanks, appreciate the explanation. Would expect some decent enhancement on the west side of the front. Could be around here potentially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Ncep still insists the euro and all models are suffering from feedback. Hard to believe http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I guess. I kinda lump CON in with the jackpots since they're all on the higher end. PWM 31.9" ORH 28.7" BOS 24.9" CON 24.0" BDL 22.3" Yeah i know they did well..but Ray was talking about the deform ML fronto jackpot I think which was clearly that CT band from Tolland to HVN and BDR in Feb 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Ncep still insists the euro and all models are suffering from feedback. Hard to believe http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html A couple of us discussed this yesterday and it's not really that hard to believe. Big systems with large mechanical processes inward their internal evolution are particularly difficult for the models to process ...certainly less than 100%. Adding into that, the models parameterize their convection schemes differently. I am not certain very many of us are privy to what convective schemes are more appropriate for an extratropical bomb feeding off a fresh arctic airmass that's been advected out over one of the hottest warm water conveyors on the planet, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah i know they did well..but Ray was talking about the deform ML fronto jackpot I think which was clearly that CT band from Tolland to HVN and BDR in Feb 2013. Yeah the ML front is the place the jackpot fetish freaks want to be. If you want 3 feet + from this..you want the meat of that. Otherwise it's "only" 18-22 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Not sure we went an east tic on that.....we aren't getting the mid level deform band, so why run the risk of getting in that relative "lull" in forcing in the middle... looking at Multiple models and VV's , I think this is a very legit threat, and I know you already know that. CF is likely setting up Well SE of even me. You can begin to see this storm take shape. SE mass (parts of W cape) perhaps over thru E CT /RI get crushed with fronto...add some enhancement up in the RI hills. NJ up thru NYC (maybe E NY) (W 1/2 of L.I over thru West CT and "W" MA over thru CNE get some sick deform band where the 1-2 punch of higher ratio's and higher QPF than actually modeled buries someone under 3' + (wether the band is 35 miles either side will separate have's and have not's) The question I have is if this set up w/ Easterly inflow leaves the same sort of sharp cut off To the NW of the SE Mass fronto /CF set up or if it is more gradual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Just in case anyone didn't notice the notice at the top of the page, board will be down again for a time this afternoon. From the FB page: "Ok, after some research we've found that our Apache software has been configured where it is not taking advantage of all of the CPU cores we have (16 total!). Therefore, we are going to take the board offline for a short time after the Euro has completed to make this upgrade. Please stick with us here for updates. Thanks." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Ncep still insists the euro and all models are suffering from feedback. Hard to believe http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html Does that mean more/less qpf or just a redistribution ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 That Euro snow map was only thru Tues eve. I think there would be more snow after that, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 shutdown in 10 minutes hope the site is back up for 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I guess. I kinda lump CON in with the jackpots since they're all on the higher end. PWM 31.9" ORH 28.7" BOS 24.9" CON 24.0" BDL 22.3" I think Will was just looking to dispel the myth...I know how much he hates absolute terms about storms. Like when I say this track is good for here while that track is better for location XYZ. He'll find storms to prove it wrong...or the deform band always ends up in location XYZ...except when it doesn't. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Folks ... even as near as 48-60 hours from max impact across SNE, I would caution you use the QPF/ and/or snow totals with a degree incredulity from all guidance. I discussed this yesterday and now NCEP is also latching on ... THE 12Z ECMWF, 12Z NAM, AND 12Z GFS HAVE WHAT APPEAR TO BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYES CONTAMINATING THEIR SOLUTIONS -- This system is a particular challenge even to the higher res, favorable scoring tools, due to it's anomalous characteristics. There are going to be details and nuances and idiosyncrasies endemic to big bombs/monster ilk going on, and the models will bicker and argue over what details emerge or don't. The convective scheming as this thing loops over the Gulf Stream for one ... heh, good luck. I just don't how much I believe it's a big factor. Sure for now take a consensus of the models and no individual model (I still doubt the euro is explicitly correct notwithstanding this run) but time is running short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Its a pretty big difference between euro and gfs/nam for western sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Does that mean more/less qpf or just a redistribution ? Reading what they say it's impossible to tell - if the assumption is correct that ALL models have a convective issue. To me that means thise with the best chance are in the max areas on the most models. Not sure I buy the convective stuff, let's see what the 18z does. Euro was most sw at this range on the last captured system that trended away. Doesn't mean it's happening this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 That Euro snow map was only thru Tues eve. I think there would be more snow after that, yes? Correct...esp for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I wouldn't be surprised to see a local "min" here in CT. I like 2 jackpot zones one around NYC up through the Berkshires from the mid level frontogenesis and a second near the south shore of Boston? Lots of funky dry slot issues develop as the storm winds up so much but damn this is one impressive storm. Just about ready to get into work to start chucking em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Will , what are you thoughts about this storm for SNE I mean, what are you looking at to gauge the relative snowfall impact and distribution over the area given what models have shown and perhaps having an understanding of the difficulties models may be having with this set up that NCEP is alluding to. Do you think a quicker 5H close would tuck this closer to S NJ coast then depicted my MSLP placement on models, or anything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Our consolation prize here will be a modest 3-6 inches as per BTV but it is better than none. It seems reasonable as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hoping Logan manages to pull an all timer (~28"+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 With the Euro being the only piece of guidance that far west..you have to wonder if it does indeed slide east to match the mesos/globals or does it win and the west solution verifies.. At this point it's impossible to tell where the have's and have nots so to speak will be. No one thought CT was going to jack from NEMO until it actually started happening..Just remember that..so if you are in the cross hairs now..congrats..but know it could change. I'm expecting around 18-20 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 With the Euro being the only piece of guidance that far west..you have to wonder if it does indeed slide east to match the mesos/globals or does it win and the west solution verifies.. At this point it's impossible to tell where the have's and have nots so to speak will be. No one thought CT was going to jack from NEMO until it actually started happening..Just remember that..so if you are in the cross hairs now..congrats..but know it could change. I'm expecting around 18-20 here It's been very consistent tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Attleboro, Sharon, interior SE MA NW of TAN will jack IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Will , what are you thoughts about this storm for SNE I mean, what are you looking at to gauge the relative snowfall impact and distribution over the area given what models have shown and perhaps having an understanding of the difficulties models may be having with this set up that NCEP is alluding to. Do you think a quicker 5H close would tuck this closer to S NJ coast then depicted my MSLP placement on models, or anything else NCEP is tlaking convective feedback...which isn't that uncommon in dynamic systems like this. It happened in Jan 2011, Oct 2011 and in Feb 2013...it can sometimes cause model guidance to overphase the storm and we see the last second tick east when the models "figure out" the convective feedback....but it is difficult to tell the difference between convective feedback and what is real. I think at this point, it doesn't matter that much for impact purposes...it's not like anywhere in SNE might see only 6-8" of snow if they get in a subsidence zone. We're talking the difference between 24" and 14" or something. We really won't know the answer to this until probably tonight or tomorrow morning even. The 500-700 dryslot could work into the region if it is very phased, but one of the differences between a storm like this and boxing day 2010 (where some places got screwed with only 6") is that the dryslot collpases back SE as the storm rots back to the E and also the WCB is more powerful in this one as the storm is undergoing max intensification a bit further north than that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 My expectation here is 22-25 inches. Completely doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 WXRISK.COM @WXRISKCOM 22m22 minutes ago WXRISK FIRST CALL MAP IS HERE detailed analysis https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717/809771155736811/?type=1 … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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