jamesnichols89 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 GFS at hour 60 is a dynamite solution at H5, negative trough centered over NC. Kaboom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Feb 69 enroute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Pretty awesome that the gfs is the "tame" solution still gives 20" to Boston and warning snows to west of ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Feb 69 enroute Time to revise that 30% chance of snow for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What a beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 WOW even the GFS snow map includes Cape Cod in it to 24" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Pure weather greatness in that weather depiction even on the tamer GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 D.C. gets 4-8", Philadelphia gets 1-3", NYC gets 10-15", BOS gets 24"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Check that PHL gets 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 winds are impressive also on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Yup. We are trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Gotta hand it to a lot of the mets sniffing out this possibility from long range. Also, crazy uncle may have scored a coup along with the formerly named nogaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Yeah but in my eyes the uKMET can't score the coup because it lost it as of 00z last nights run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 D.C. gets 4-8", Philadelphia gets 1-3", NYC gets 10-15", BOS gets 24"+on the GFS? Seems a lot less for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 In reality, all of them had this at one time and lost it before the consensus starting coming back in the biggest way yesterday at 12Z. When I saw the MEX snow number for BOS and BDL at 8 it seemed to be perhaps a flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 D.C. gets 4-8", Philadelphia gets 1-3", NYC gets 10-15", BOS gets 24"+ The negative tilt happens about 6 hours too late for NYC and western Long Island. It would be a few inches there on the GFS. If it happens a little sooner, then NYC gets pounded too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 12z JMA @ 72 hours looks like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 GFS is a little east of the NAM, but the trend continues...BOS gets about 20" on this run. The GFS is a bit east of the NAM, but it did make about a 100 mile shift west from it's 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 GFS gets over half inch of QPF up here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Would love for this to tuck in a little closer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 BOS may have gone from being in the futility race a week ago to the epic run by Wednesday. As of yesterday BOS had 5.5. Today should double+ that and the new sum may be tripled by mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 BOS may have gone from being in the futility race a week ago to the epic run by Wednesday. As of yesterday BOS had 5.5. Today should double+ that and the new sum may be tripled by mid week. Probably better suited for the pattern thread, and I don't want to get too far ahead of myself, but there's more right on the heals of 1/27...1/30 is trending much better and there's a fairly robust signal for 2/1-2/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Sorry Kevin... Didn't see you had this thread ...I've been having PC issues this morning so just performed a sys restore... Anyway, this event is intriguing for me, in that it was suspect over the last couple of days with regard to the models, et al, handling the wave length between the western ridge, and the eastern trough, amid this particular period/details.. of a +PNAP pattern. I mentioned this yesterday or the day before, that I was holding out optimism(pessimism) based upon the relay off the Pacific ocean into the denser more materialized sounding grid, and certainly enough... it appears the physics are compensating for the erstwhile "over" stretched look to the larger circulation character. The result is that the multi-dynamical jets piling up into the eastern trough are being forced to phase ...ever more across successive model runs. This may in fact be a uniquely qualified NAM performance opportunity because all of the mechanics are within it's processing domain at this point, and I have personally noted that although this model more often than not leaves me in a state of neck rubbing distraction ... there are times when it does perform well, if perhaps ignored due to its reputation, and having all of the sampling squarely inside it's domain is almost always occurred when it does perform better. In this case, we have a correction that is also applying to the other models. The 00z unilaterally started this trend. Even the 06z GFS, though leaving still some to be desired (not just sensibly but sense-ably), closes off the 500mb 528dm surface some 6 hours sooner and farther back SW on average. Trends I think, if not suspect, will continue as these other models roll out here over the next few minutes/hours. So essentially what we are seeing in how this plays out ... The multi-dynamic wave structure pours down the negative aspect of the emerging eastern long wave trough amplitude ... as the western ridge flexes/repositions E more between 110-120 longitude, which is really quite ideal for a Del Marva mid level closure in both climo and wave length arguments. Hence the eye-brow raising over previous east positions... But now we see that the wave structure slows dramatically as it nears the middle Atlantic states, usurped to do so by the larger scale synoptic wave length argument. It's really quite analogous to a wave piling up just before it curls against the shallows of the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What is the timeline for a start for the Monday storm RI /Boston area please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I hope folks will give a play by play at 1 for what may be the biggest model run of the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 GGEM is on board. Blizzard for eastenr half of SNE and Maine, but warning event for all of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 ggem also trending west from previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I hope folks will give a play by play at 1 for what may be the biggest model run of the season! Don't think there is much of a problem that does not happen..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Canadian. I believe yellow is 0.75" in 6 hours dark green is 0.5" but don't quote me on that. Edit: 0.5" and 0.25", still a huge hit. Will grab a totals map when it's out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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