Nygmen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 when i mean west im saying with the precip shield...srry for not clarifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 If anybody on here is worried about "only" getting 15", I really don't know what to tell you Its a tough life sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 00z P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif 12z P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif Yeah, lol, How is that west, Its actually the eastern outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 That band over the interior is insane. Off the charts VVs. image.jpg I was looking at the NAM a little more discretely too and that sucker has one mother f'er of a meso band extending NE-SW through NH into N Mass at 50 to 55 hours. I mean, like 10" of snow in 3 -hours in there... I'm wondering with so much uniquely intense UVV's, could there be thunder snow in a powder column? Usually you'd have to be off one's rocker, because thunder in snow is usually a TROWAL presence/thing, or just west of the flip over lines, etc.. But ... you don't usually see cumulonimbi category upward motion, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It could be better for the NJ crew. I don't want it better for the NJ crew - I want it better for Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I don't want it better for the NJ crew - I want it better for Ray Lol, I was commenting on why someone from LI said it was west. It did look a bit west with qpf down there in the frame that Scooter posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 To some extent the models underestimate the banding...it's mesoscale. The higher res models can sniff it out though. Another thing is that the QPF can be less, but the ratios are sky high in those bands with deep saturation and strong lift in the max dendritic growth zone. So although the QPF may drop off...the ratios and amounts climb. We won't have the winds that they'll have closer to the center and along the coast so there will be less crystal destruction via BLSN/DRSN too. I really like where you are for this event. We are too far NW for that band, but I think you rot for like 12 hours straight of deform snows. You could quickly and quietly rack it up. You gotta find a way to put a yardstick that's viewable in your camera image, then make a time lapse loop of this system. Though I know you don't like footprints in the yard...maybe just javelin a yard stick out into the ground from the driveway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Thanks Scott. Ukie actually shed a few mb at peak intensity per those maps. So we are getting a better overall consensus, I'll be shocked more than Coach B about the deflated balls If it does bounce NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It is. 00z... image.jpg I've been posting too many QPF maps lately. How meteorological of me. Nice deform bands out here on that run. Jesus 2"+ qpf in the Berks. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Not this time sadly. Models have really consolidated the precip shields today taking me from a foot plus on the euro last night to maybe an inch with the 12z models today. That is a pretty common situation in upstate ENY for these storms however. A short half hour drive will get you to the good stuff. I wish I was back home in CT for this one! See that image that Brian posted. In this storm, the big NW deform band looks to be somewhere in central New England down into western SNE. I could see it arcing from like Dryslot to Dendrite and down into CT. There probably won't be some jackpot band going from like BML to MPV to GFL in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Wxrisk.com 47 mins · COMMENTS ON 12z ( midday) GFS model run... ITS A BAD JOKE Here we are only 36 hrs From the start event and the new or midday Sunday GFS model now has a TOTALLY different and completely new solution to what's going to happen with a severe nor'easter Monday night into day. The model remains a bad joke when it comes to forecasting East Coast snowstorms. Complicating the problem is that the GFS model is so heavily followed in NWS and by TV meteorologists yet ifthere is this insistance on ignoring its serious inconsistencies. As I stated in the Blog on the website this is a particular type of Low is refer to as a MILLER B. Without getting too technical this is a type of system which jumps over the mountains and re- develops on the Middle Atlantic Coast. These sorts of weather systems almost invariably always SCREW over Washington, DC Richmond and much of Virginia. So this new solution by the GFS model I simply cannot state. It appears that the classic model bias or tendency of the GFS model is at more here once again. The model again has shifted the LOW further to the east than any other model and as a result it's heavy snow band is this place to the east. The 12z GFS Model only has 10 to 12 inches of snow and New York City and the thing that is going to be correct I have a bridge to sell you. And that places the entire snow forecast wash and DC Baltimore Northern Virginia in jeopardy. Logic tells us that if the entire system a shifted to the east... The significant to heavy snow area should be over the Delmarva NOT over central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Well....gotta call all the stakeholders and change meetings Tuesday and Wednesday. Pain but folks flying in so gotta notify them. Big dog incoming is more and more apparent and the cold foundation comes in tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sorry for the cluttered DT post on FB, thought it would post with correct paragraphs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I really like where you are for this event. We are too far NW for that band, but I think you rot for like 12 hours straight of deform snows. You could quickly and quietly rack it up. You gotta find a way to put a yardstick that's viewable in your camera image, then make a time lapse loop of this system. Though I know you don't like footprints in the yard...maybe just javelin a yard stick out into the ground from the driveway? I have a snow depth sensor that I haven't installed yet. I'm kicking myself for dragging my feet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 At the core of this its just as much about a slightly later development/slightly weaker as it is a jog in any one direction. They're part and parcel really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Don't know, but if it pans out, heading straight for the Tobin. Reminds me of that subsidence band Ginxy got stuck under in March '13. Brutal16 versus 22 west meh, in 13, subsidence was in RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 4 diff models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Too bad ALL of those models are using 10:1 ratios, kinda useless IMO. And 850/700 temps support all snow all the way down to the canal/upper cape. 4 diff models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'll take the lower right and I'm willing to pony up $1,000 for a guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 yup same here lol euro about to roll I'll take the lower right and I'm willing to pony up $1,000 for a guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 lol at putting out a map with 41.1" at ORH. Hype machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 lol at putting out a map with 41.1" at ORH. Hype machine. Gotta keep those people tuned into garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 nam ftw lol lol at putting out a map with 41.1" at ORH.Hype machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Which model is the buzzkill at the bottom left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 lol at putting out a map with 41.1" at ORH. Hype machine. Reminds me of Nemo when on-air folks were posting like 50-60" totals off some steroid RPM model at 20:1 ratios lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Bob, you think we see the Euro close 5H earlier this run. The Ukmet doing that slightly concerns me. Long Island could be LA EPIC on most models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 You toss the 2 bottom ones and the top two are reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Just caught up. Took last night off from work because I hadn't gone out on the weekend for awhile. Noticed many discussing best regions to chase and locate themselves for the storm. I would definitely want to be ORH on east for the wind. I think deform band from hell might form somewhere out west but tough to know where Also pickles was talking bout chasing deform during the storm.. don't think anyone is going to be going anywhere. Probably a travel ban. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 16 versus 22 west meh, in 13, subsidence was in RI My bad, for some reason I thought you were in that area. Should have scrutinized your profile a little closer lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 I wouldn't toss any of them. Just blend all 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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