40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Euro def gonna shift east today. Gibbs is fully convinced We pray...tickle, tickle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Rgem broke bad down there too...I think the euro will follow suit. I didn't look at the euro ens a ton but I surmised the mean was east sigh...the gfs was too far east the whole time with the last storm...id bet its too far east again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 We pray...tickle, tickleYeah one bumpie east is all we need and seems likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I don't think we mix the LLJ down enough during the height of the storm across interior locations. Now don't get me wrong I think in the intense banding we will have gusts 45mph maybe 50mph. However, sustained winds of 20-30mph is just below par for Blizzard. I have been looking at this for awhile this morning (I forecast for a few clients in Mass) and it appears for a short time it may be perfect. Its possible. Hence BOX & OKX issuing the BW. Not to mention its just safer to issue it to convince people to stay off the roads. Now at the coast its going to be rocking and rolling. This is my take on it. I could be wrong. Just my two sense. With the forecast wind direction what areas will take biggest pounding...Scituate/Marshfield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm behind ... first, why did the site crash yesterday? I'm assuming load balancing had something to do with it (IT talkage..) given to the emergent urgency that cannot be denied at this point. This has to be one of the steeper ratios I have ever seen, even going back to the 1970s, wrt to short term notice -vs- magnificence of plausible impact. Good Lord! The 12z NAM came back with thunderous appeal compared to its fighting and clawing to find a way to whiff between the 00z and 06Z runs. Fascinating observation re the NAM ... I put the 06Z (because it was the most pathetic) next to this newly arrived(ing) NAM run, and compared them 3-hourlies. At every time interval starting from 0 out to 60, the entire domain over the middle latitudes of N/A was correct back SW some 60 nautical miles / geopotential isopleth. It's like the NAM's 00Z and 06Z run "sloshed" (almost like an atmospheric tide) NE with the mass fields at large scales, and this really more than just seems to atone for the both the outward (east) position, as well as weakening the mechanics while the dynamics bore out the closure ... which ultimately effected intensity rates and positioning. All gone in the 12z run! It sloshed the correction back SW through the entire scope of the U.S., and I knew when I saw that, when the dynamics turned the corner down SE it would be different by the time it go up S of LI and behold... sub 522dm core now situated about quintessentially perfect comparing to climatology. In fact, I would even argue based upon a-priori in using the NAM (risky) over the years, that the model might event correct higher with precipitation totals, winds, and low pressure (sfc) depth on the next cycle, as this run is a correction, and corrections seem (usually) to take an additional cycle or two to iron out. So we'll see there... Also in being behind, I am sure people have mentioned this, but I will anyway.. The GGEM from 00z, YES yes, not the most reliable guidance type, but it pretty much brings damaging society event wind criteria to eastern New England. Period. Not sure what to make of that, but the "ink" of the gradient is so steep between 970mb low and 1040mb high, that it's a just a giant thick black line of ENE terror. I gotta think the GGEM's been eating too many ball-park franks there, but I'd just thought I mention it. I'm sure everyone's covered the usual suspects and profiled this thing to ad nauseam, so won't add more beyond that. Except that, this system is very large, and very powerful. It will contain centric mechanics that are going to be more or less accurately processed for by x-y-z model type. At this point, you almost throw every model into a blender and hit frappe; that's your storm. I can see arguments that support and deny particularly details in every model, from the GGEM, to the Euro's burying ALB in choking deformation band ... to tidal impacts and back. In terms of history... The NAM's FRH grid is a top 10 storm at Logan and LGA. Again...I think the model is amid an unfinished correction; could be wrong there but we'll see how the 18, particularly the 00z (fuller compliment of original samples in the grid) pan out. Like all big monsters, they flirt in various guidance types with historical, but more times than not, something happens to prove it was all more histrionic. After all, there can only be 1 number one. And by common sense, less rarer be a number 2 and so forth.. My opinion is that AFDs should not use "historic" -- they should just speak to the data they are looking at, and their own assessment of impacts, and then let the chips fall where they may. If it ranks, it ranks.... done deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 ginxy, what are you thoughts on Coastal flooding with this thing, How much water is this thing moving in Atlantic in comparison to others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What makes you say that? The mean was a crushing job for NYC. A couple of times last winter I was in the max jack zone and watched the model tick ene along with the others in tight. It's done it even in total misses. Just seems as the zero hour approaches we lose a few mb and In turn shift a bit. I could be totally wrong but if I gambled I'd gamble on a nudge east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 sigh...the gfs was too far east the whole time with the last storm...id bet its too far east again What about the RGEM? Always seems to be the west outlier and it made a significant leap east this run virtually eliminating the tuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 A couple of times last winter I was in the max jack zone and watched the model tick ene along with the others in tight. It's done it even in total misses. Just seems as the zero hour approaches we lose a few mb and In turn shift a bit. I could be totally wrong but if I gambled I'd gamble on a nudge east has the Euro wavered with the Mean trough location and other features that are beyond my weenie area of expertise if it is locked w that i would think all others will shift more toward it then a 50/50 compromise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What about the RGEM? Always seems to be the west outlier and it made a significant leap east this run virtually eliminating the tuck RGEM was west just not as good as a precip shield...im really not trying to trol lol but the gfs couldnt verify for me 6 hours out on the last storm wen it had me getting an inch on the front end and i ended up with 4.5...that runs not verifying lol srry...not that i care consedering i still get 12+ from it anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Do y'all ever have prediction threads like they do in the Mid Atlantic threads? Winner gets.. something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 How far inland do you think blizz conditions will extend in MA? Rt 128, 495, immdiate shore? Excuse my terrible drawing skills. Anything East and South of the Black Line I drew in but like I said its probably safer to issue them all over there because of the amount of traveling people do down there (due to population) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 RGEM was west just not as good as a precip shield...im really not trying to trol lol but the gfs couldnt verify for me 6 hours out on the last storm wen it had me getting an inch on the front end and i ended up with 4.5...that runs not verifying lol srry...not that i care consedering i still get 12+ from it anyway Agree the gfs sucks but the trend in the first guidance today is better for New England and worse for New Jersey particularly more SW areas. I think it may be a 78 type of jack distribution with NYC getting 18 and eastern mass SW of BOS and northeast of BOS getting 3 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm behind ... first, why did the site crash yesterday? I'm assuming load balancing had something to do with it (IT talkage..) given to the emergent urgency that cannot be denied at this point. This has to be one of the steeper ratios I have ever seen, even going back to the 1970s, wrt to short term notice -vs- magnificence of plausible impact. Good Lord! The 12z NAM came back with thunderous appeal compared to its fighting and clawing to find a way to whiff between the 00z and 06Z runs. Fascinating observation re the NAM ... I put the 06Z (because it was the most pathetic) next to this newly arrived(ing) NAM run, and compared them 3-hourlies. At every time interval starting from 0 out to 60, the entire domain over the middle latitudes of N/A was correct back SW some 60 nautical miles / geopotential isopleth. It's like the NAM's 00Z and 06Z run "sloshed" (almost like an atmospheric tide) NE with the mass fields at large scales, and this really more than just seems to atone for the both the outward (east) position, as well as weakening the mechanics while the dynamics bore out the closure ... which ultimately effected intensity rates and positioning. All gone in the 12z run! It sloshed the correction back SW through the entire scope of the U.S., and I knew when I saw that, when the dynamics turned the corner down SE it would be different by the time it go up S of LI and behold... sub 522dm core now situated about quintessentially perfect comparing to climatology. In fact, I would even argue based upon a-priori in using the NAM (risky) over the years, that the model might event correct higher with precipitation totals, winds, and low pressure (sfc) depth on the next cycle, as this run is a correction, and corrections seem (usually) to take an additional cycle or two to iron out. So we'll see there... Also in being behind, I am sure people have mentioned this, but I will anyway.. The GGEM from 00z, YES yes, not the most reliable guidance type, but it pretty much brings damaging society event wind criteria to eastern New England. Period. Not sure what to make of that, but the "ink" of the gradient is so steep between 970mb low and 1040mb high, that it's a just a giant thick black line of ENE terror. I gotta think the GGEM's been eating too many ball-park franks there, but I'd just thought I mention it. I'm sure everyone's covered the usual suspects and profiled this thing to ad nauseam, so won't add more beyond that. Except that, this system is very large, and very powerful. It will contain centric mechanics that are going to be more or less accurately processed for by x-y-z model type. At this point, you almost throw every model into a blender and hit frappe; that's your storm. I can see arguments that support and deny particularly details in every model, from the GGEM, to the Euro's burying ALB in choking deformation band ... to tidal impacts and back. In terms of history... The NAM's FRH grid is a top 10 storm at Logan and LGA. Again...I think the model is amid an unfinished correction; could be wrong there but we'll see how the 18, particularly the 00z (fuller compliment of original samples in the grid) pan out. Like all big monsters, they flirt in various guidance types with historical, but more times than not, something happens to prove it was all more histrionic. After all, there can only be 1 number one. And by common sense, less rarer be a number 2 and so forth.. My opinion is that AFDs should not use "historic" -- they should just speak to the data they are looking at, and their own assessment of impacts, and then let the chips fall where they may. If it ranks, it ranks.... done deal. "At this point, you almost throw every model into a blender and hit frappe; that's your storm" That's a tasty frappe! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Thoughts on power loss? I lost it in 2/13 blizzard and I usually never do. Will winds be comparable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm def concerned for my aunt and uncle who moved to Hull at 1' ASL I'm off renting to have them come out here Expecting 16-20" and would be fine with anything 12" or more. Enjoy this one folks. Models are fun to watch again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Agree the gfs sucks but the trend in the first guidance today is better for New England and worse for New Jersey particularly more SW areas. I think it may be a 78 type of jack distribution with NYC getting 18 and eastern mass SW of BOS and northeast of BOS getting 3 feet. yea idc lol im on LI im getting slammed...js be weary of the gfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Really as modeled right now - this is probably the biggest snowstorm for the largest number of posters we've had in the americanwx era. This is wall to wall, east to west, north to south crushing. So much so Ray only may complain modestly. Nah Feb 2013...we even got a foot up here out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 RGEM was west just not as good as a precip shield...im really not trying to trol lol but the gfs couldnt verify for me 6 hours out on the last storm wen it had me getting an inch on the front end and i ended up with 4.5...that runs not verifying lol srry...not that i care consedering i still get 12+ from it anyway RGEM was most certainly weaker and ENE vs the 0z. Compare the 48h 12z vs the 60h 0z. A couple of MB weaker and also ENE - which has been a persistent trend on these phase jobs in the latest variations/updates of several models including the Euro. This includes many recent "misses" that most never bothered to follow because they weren't as close as this one. It's just my opinion, but I think it'll continue. In the last similar instance last winter the Euro was actually among the worst, and slowest to move ENE eventually hosing even my area while the others were "too" far ENE all along/less severe and right. There's a lot of time left so we will see, but just my opinion. Using the maps below there's a very clear 48/60 hour move ENE. I would have posted the animation but the site be busted! http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Nah Feb 2013...we even got a foot up here out of that. Yea I don't see how this could beat 2013, wide spread 24" amounts around here and greater in the death band zones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 RGEM was most certainly weaker and ENE vs the 0z. Compare the 48h 12z vs the 60h 0z. A couple of MB weaker and also ENE - which has been a persistent trend on these phase jobs in the latest variations/updates of several models including the Euro. This includes many recent "misses" that most never bothered to follow because they weren't as close as this one. It's just my opinion, but I think it'll continue. In the last similar instance last winter the Euro was actually among the worst, and slowest to move ENE eventually hosing even my area while the others were "too" far ENE all along/less severe and right. There's a lot of time left so we will see, but just my opinion. Using the maps below there's a very clear 48/60 hour move ENE. I would have posted the animation but the site be busted! http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html the furthest east this is going is what the gfs shoes rn...if u are expecting it to trend further east u are in for disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Thoughts on power loss? I lost it in 2/13 blizzard and I usually never do. Will winds be comparable? Lots of improvements made after that storm. I bought a generator last night, as I do believe there will be extended outages although maybe not as bad due to the fact it's trending colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Excuse my terrible drawing skills. Anything East and South of the Black Line I drew in but like I said its probably safer to issue them all over there because of the amount of traveling people do down there (due to population) Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I guess showing the model snow algorithm outputs is the new thing on the news. WMUR is doing it now too. Sounds like an excuse for putting up a wide range of totals, but not having to take responsibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Agree the gfs sucks but the trend in the first guidance today is better for New England and worse for New Jersey particularly more SW areas. I think it may be a 78 type of jack distribution with NYC getting 18 and eastern mass SW of BOS and northeast of BOS getting 3 feet. Everyone is seemingly ignoring the extent to which the RGEM moved. In the 36-48 of this run it's really, really notable vs last nights 0z which was in many ways similar to the Euro and often is. We will see, I could be totally wrong but I will be curious to see if we shed a mb or two per run and a result this ends up a 978-980 ish..and subsequently tucked a little further NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I guess showing the model snow algorithm outputs is the new thing on the news. WMUR is doing it now too. Sounds like an excuse for putting up a wide range of totals, but not having to take responsibility. Agreed. I think it's ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looks like a tick east on the GGEM too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I dare peeps to scroll thru 384 hrs on the 12z gfs and try and keep their clothes on. OMG Old man winter is dropping the hammer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Everyone is seemingly ignoring the extent to which the RGEM moved. In the 36-48 of this run it's really, really notable vs last nights 0z which was in many ways similar to the Euro and often is. We will see, I could be totally wrong but I will be curious to see if we shed a mb or two per run and a result this ends up a 978-980 ish..and subsequently tucked a little further NE. While I agree with you, it wouldn't be a nor'easter without the messenger east trend discussions . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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