Bostonseminole Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 ene Tic is music to my ears. Yeap, looks fantastic for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think we will see the euro tick NE just a touch but still be W of gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Clown map (Mr. Evan Kuchera method) seems to be truncated at the top of the range. Jackpot for nearly everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looks like GFS made a jog east. So, getting closer to a consensus it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yea we dont want another boxing day fiasco in NJ where people were stranded on the Garden State Parkway. 100% agree with you. WFO's I bet are siding on the side of caution away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 ene Tic is music to my ears. IMO it'll likely continue right into the end, so there's room for more erosion in some areas and a shift NE of some of the maxes but it's a great hit for the subforum, really everyone. I'm not looking all that closely for the reasons above but this run looks very cold too similar to the RGEM. Without the foolish tuck way left which I expect the Euro drops too....the warmth cannot really get here. I'm convinced the Euro will come east too, more towards the E ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 gfs: .. done by noon tuesday.. don't think so what are you talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GFS totals in Eastern Mass are on the order of 2-3 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looks like GFS made a jog east. So, getting closer to a consensus it seems. Thats a crushing from you down this way. Plenty for sledding lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It doesn't have much of an effect for the posters here, it will curtail snows pretty dramatically in NJ etc. I think it's a very valid trend just based on model performance/issues the last two seasons. There was one case last winter where even the Euro was suffering the same fate in being way too far SW and gradually shifted those bands NE. I like blizzard criteria for the Cape, PYM perhaps Bristol and up into coastal MA north. the 48 hour map on the GFS and similar on the RGEM are just astounding. Yeah, Not at at all in our area, Wider swing will effect some way down south but its also a colder solution out your way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It is very difficult to get Blizzard Criteria: Heavy Snow, Less than 1/4mi visibility and 35mph sustained winds for 3 hours Over larger land mass that is a challenge. The Cape and Long Island have more ocean surrounding them. Yeah, I get that. Just figured that with high qpf and an insane pressure gradient, winds could extend father inland. Was looking to pick your brain as to why you didn't think inland blizzard warnings would verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I don't think I've ever seen Mike Wankum bullish for a snow event. He hates it. I agree. He down plays everything. Inevitably, something, will always be "moving over the top os us" to limit snowfall accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 what are you talking about lots of tv mets stating shower after tuesday noon.. GFS has it snowing at a pretty good clip till evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Western MA/VT approve of the GFS. Just crushed w banding w those ML tracks Savoy Mass will have there "weather team observation" in the PNS of about 48" but NE mass just gets crushed and doesn't give up till 6z Wednesday. Too bad it's the GFS. The clown maps for NE mass should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 ene Tic is music to my ears. That is what we wanted to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Holy crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Really like that tic east. Travel will be impossible Tuesday, and more than likely Wednesday as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think we will see the euro tick NE just a touch but still be W of gfs. Agreed. I just want that H7 dry slot out of here...yes, I realize we get well over 1' before that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Really as modeled right now - this is probably the biggest snowstorm for the largest number of posters we've had in the americanwx era. This is wall to wall, east to west, north to south crushing. So much so Ray only may complain modestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looks like GFS made a jog east. So, getting closer to a consensus it seems. it's so different from the euro down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Just crushed w banding w those ML tracks Savoy Mass will have there "weather team observation" in the PNS of about 48" but NE mass just gets crushed and doesn't give up till 6z Wednesday. Too bad it's the GFS. The clown maps for NE mass should be interesting That would work well. Give us the low level forcing, let the hills have the mid level bonanza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah, I get that. Just figured that with high qpf and an insane pressure gradient, winds could extend father inland. Was looking to pick your brain as to why you didn't think inland blizzard warnings would verify. I don't think we mix the LLJ down enough during the height of the storm across interior locations. Now don't get me wrong I think in the intense banding we will have gusts 45mph maybe 50mph. However, sustained winds of 20-30mph is just below par for Blizzard. I have been looking at this for awhile this morning (I forecast for a few clients in Mass) and it appears for a short time it may be perfect. Its possible. Hence BOX & OKX issuing the BW. Not to mention its just safer to issue it to convince people to stay off the roads. Now at the coast its going to be rocking and rolling. This is my take on it. I could be wrong. Just my two sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Really as modeled right now - this is probably the biggest snowstorm for the largest number of posters we've had in the americanwx era. This is wall to wall, east to west, north to south crushing. So much so Ray only may complain modestly. I need to step away, sometimes....I become too immersed, and overanalyze everything. Addictive personalty ftl. Zero complaints here, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 it's so different from the euro down here Rgem broke bad down there too...I think the euro will follow suit. I didn't look at the euro ens a ton but I surmised the mean was east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 All the maps I've seen ie weather channel, box, even before these latest runs, jack Emass anyways so why are further east tics desired lol? We need something left out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Euro def gonna shift east today. Gibbs is fully convinced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 anyone's significant other's about to lose it thanks to this storm Disco , lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I don't think we mix the LLJ down enough during the height of the storm across interior locations. Now don't get me wrong I think in the intense banding we will have gusts 45mph maybe 50mph. However, sustained winds of 20-30mph is just below par for Blizzard. I have been looking at this for awhile this morning (I forecast for a few clients in Mass) and it appears for a short time it may be perfect. Its possible. Hence BOX & OKX issuing the BW. Not to mention its just safer to issue it to convince people to stay off the roads. Now at the coast its going to be rocking and rolling. This is my take on it. I could be wrong. Just my two sense. How far inland do you think blizz conditions will extend in MA? Rt 128, 495, immdiate shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Rgem broke bad down there too...I think the euro will follow suit. I didn't look at the euro ens a ton but I surmised the mean was east What makes you say that? The mean was a crushing job for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I need to step away, sometimes....I become too immersed, and overanalyze everything. Addictive personalty ftl. Zero complaints here, though. Same here. At the supermarket on my phone holy mental case my wife says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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