CT Valley Snowman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 So in general Windsor doesn't get screwed in events like this because of its elevation or anything? I am not familiar with the area obviously. Sorry to clutter up the thread. unless you are under some mesoscale type of band, the valley usually will get less snow than the surrounding hills, but there is a lot to do and it is a convenient location. Unless there's a significant upslope signal , it usually isn't that extreme maybe a 24 in the surrounding hills might bring you down to 18-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Can someone explain this? How are they coming up with 9" for BOS on the Euro. Lol what? 6 inches on the euro and 4 on the gfs in brockton? Thry could jack. Thats wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Posted 4 min ago to Facebook. They seemed to have pulled it down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 I might end up coming to Tolland then lolIf the Euro is right NW ct is prime spot. If Ens and Nam are right that would be good choice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 ask yourself, have they even been ground zero. the valley location there gets shafted alot. check out mass. heck hit up long island instead CT in general? Yes we have jackpotted many times (most recently Nemo). Not Windsor Locks though, I would definitely avoid that place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 So you can clearly see the changes at 500 and at the surface on this run of the GFS. You can see how it's elongating a bit or leaning ENE up to the point where the convection really fires. Subtle but there for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 As modeled totals over 20" seem possible but nobody should be expecting that in their back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 RGEM not doing the loopy doopy has significant impacts to the SW and W. Will have to see how the GFS plays it this run but I think I like where it is going through 30 And there is the shift NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 And there is the shift NE The last 1-2 seasons it happens EVERY time. Only year it didn't was the year of the big M-A blizzards. It's maddening to watch the SW edge tick away when you're near it. For SNE/ENE/C/NE it's mostly very much game on, and for some of the fringers like James it's better news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 As modeled totals over 20" seem possible but nobody should be expecting that in their back yard. Probablistic, not deterministic. GFS is showing qpf a little earlier than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think its going to be tough to make Blizzard criteria unless your on the Cape & Islands. As well as Long Island. Elsewhere I think its more for wording and precaution to folks. However I don't work for those WFO's so I don't know. Just my two sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Mike Wankums team has screwed up the outputs like 4 times in a row That stuff shouldn't be posted anyway. Tenths of an inch on snow algorithms on model runs shown to the general public. Good idea. Just show your own damn forecast! That's what the general person wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GFS is just a devastating blow in SE/E MA. (not commenting on other areas). That's a whooping, yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 do you have AWD? if so, head to any place but be ready to re-locate once the deform band forms lol. awesome Ya, I mean at this point with some ideas on track to be worked out it Is not yet time to pick a spot, but I would eliminate a few and BDL is too risky to get downsloped to be considered a top option. IF Euro doesn't trend east over next couple runs I personally would look for a spot elevated in W SNE. Thou I would defer to what some of the Best Mets in the Area think about them being "safe" to see 2 feet plus. They will get crushed with easterly inflow (upslope enhancement) and then could get serious banding. So ya I think if Euro doesn't shift east a tad with stall or track that is where I would go. Looking for anything upslope over 1300' or so as close to the high spots of noted jackpot magnets. Savoy and Peru , MA. But if shifts east a lot, you will be reliving the movie deliverance out there. It looks like the banding and inflow would still be sick on the GFS track out there, looking at ML low track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The last 1-2 seasons it happens EVERY time. Only year it didn't was the year of the big M-A blizzards. It's maddening to watch the SW edge tick away when you're near it. For SNE/ENE/C/NE it's mostly very much game on, and for some of the fringers like James it's better news. Pretty noticeable at H5 early on as the trough did not dig to southern FL like the Nam did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 gfs is about 2 feet for here looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think its going to be tough to make Blizzard criteria unless your on the Cape & Islands. As well as Long Island. Elsewhere I think its more for wording and precaution to folks. However I don't work for those WFO's so I don't know. Just my two sense. I think while most locals outside of SE MA wont meet the criteria but in a region wide 1-2' storm, its best to hoist them up to alert the public of how big of an impact this system will have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 gfs: .. done by noon tuesday.. don't think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think its going to be tough to make Blizzard criteria unless your on the Cape & Islands. As well as Long Island. Elsewhere I think its more for wording and precaution to folks. However I don't work for those WFO's so I don't know. Just my two sense.Why? Not anticipating big winds, or heavy snowfall rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Pretty noticeable at H5 early on as the trough did not dig to southern FL like the Nam did It doesn't have much of an effect for the posters here, it will curtail snows pretty dramatically in NJ etc. I think it's a very valid trend just based on model performance/issues the last two seasons. There was one case last winter where even the Euro was suffering the same fate in being way too far SW and gradually shifted those bands NE. I like blizzard criteria for the Cape, PYM perhaps Bristol and up into coastal MA north. the 48 hour map on the GFS and similar on the RGEM are just astounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah that's my point. Outside of of SE Mass & tip of LI its just for wording and to convince people to stay off the roads. I think while most locals outside of SE MA wont meet the criteria but in a region wide 1-2' storm, its best to hoist them up to alert the public of how big of an impact this system will have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 If you believe the GFS, heavy banding persists well into Tuesday night, making this at least a 36 hour event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GFS buries everyone in EMA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah that's my point. Outside of of SE Mass & tip of LI its just for wording and to convince people to stay off the roads. Yea we dont want another boxing day fiasco in NJ where people were stranded on the Garden State Parkway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Western MA/VT approve of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The last 1-2 seasons it happens EVERY time. Only year it didn't was the year of the big M-A blizzards. It's maddening to watch the SW edge tick away when you're near it. For SNE/ENE/C/NE it's mostly very much game on, and for some of the fringers like James it's better news. ene Tic is music to my ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It is very difficult to get Blizzard Criteria: Heavy Snow, Less than 1/4mi visibility and 35mph sustained winds for 3 hours Over larger land mass that is a challenge. The Cape and Long Island have more ocean surrounding them. Why? Not anticipating big winds, or heavy snowfall rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I don't think I've ever seen Mike Wankum bullish for a snow event. He hates it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GFS buries everyone in EMA... ...and snows for days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GFS buries everyone in EMA... Define "buries." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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