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Storm Disco for Manitoba Mauler 01/26/27


Damage In Tolland

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I know what you mean, but I sort of worry of a GFS solution with such intense dynamics here. The thing is, you probably will get bured with a track SE of ACK. This circulation is huge, throw out common perceptions you have for climo snow tracks. All of you.

i'm in love with the mid levels. model qpf means little to me at this point
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I tend to agree with you, these things do seem to end up more northeast than progged when they finally hook and stall.  The models sometimes rush those things, as much as I don't like it because I need an early capture under Long Island.

 

That is what happen with Nemo, It ended up further NE then modeled for up here

 

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I know what you mean, but I sort of worry of a GFS solution with such intense dynamics here. The thing is, you probably will get bured with a track SE of ACK. This circulation is huge, throw out common perceptions you have for climo snow tracks. All of you.

Yeah there are reasons for both solutions to work out. It'll be interesting to see the trends at 12z and 00z today.

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I always generally think in high wind events, 10:1 is a good starting point.  10-12:1.  You can still get great dendrites but wind packing on the ground also will bring down ratios.  I'm assuming with the bomb off-shore and low level jet of like 30-60kts depending on location, that this will come in under the "storm snow" ratios which generally seem to hold between 10-12:1.  Maybe the last few inches go to 18:1? 

 

I bet that first slug will be pretty dense (not wet though) nor'easter snow.

 

The 06z GFS has minimum omega values right within the dendritic growth zone. Lapse rates between 550 and 500 mb are around 7 deg/km so bands that develop should realize some very good vertical motion and therefore have excellent growth conditions for dendrites.

 

For Boston:

 

post-869-0-81829800-1422192071_thumb.png

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The 06z GFS has minimum omega values right within the dendritic growth zone. Lapse rates between 550 and 500 mb are around 7 deg/km so bands that develop should realize some very good vertical motion and therefore have excellent growth conditions for dendrites.

 

For Boston:

 

attachicon.gifScreenshot from 2015-01-25 08:15:05.png

 

Desturctive, dendrite-destroying winds for the ratio loss.

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The 06z GFS has minimum omega values right within the dendritic growth zone. Lapse rates between 550 and 500 mb are around 7 deg/km so bands that develop should realize some very good vertical motion and therefore have excellent growth conditions for dendrites.

For Boston:

Screenshot from 2015-01-25 08:15:05.png

Yeah I'm just going on past experience from QPF heavy nor'easters with significant wind. It just seems hard to get 15-20:1 ratios in 40mph winds.

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Yeah I'm just going on past experience from QPF heavy nor'easters with significant wind. It just seems hard to get 15-20:1 ratios in 40mph winds.

 

You can get dendrites still, but it will blow and drift around, thus reducing ratios on ground. I don't have Currier and Ives fetish like some do in the interior.

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