forkyfork Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 really nice banding signal from nyc through western mass on the gfs and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Obviously we know Ukie and it's SE bias https://twitter.com/nwsboston/status/559304759534817282 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I know what you mean, but I sort of worry of a GFS solution with such intense dynamics here. The thing is, you probably will get bured with a track SE of ACK. This circulation is huge, throw out common perceptions you have for climo snow tracks. All of you.i'm in love with the mid levels. model qpf means little to me at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looks like you guys will be rewarded down there for your patience for sure. I expect video from the height of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I tend to agree with you, these things do seem to end up more northeast than progged when they finally hook and stall. The models sometimes rush those things, as much as I don't like it because I need an early capture under Long Island. That is what happen with Nemo, It ended up further NE then modeled for up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 From OKX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Even Albany chuckin' weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 really nice banding signal from nyc through western mass on the gfs and euro Just dusted off my set of Golden Yardsticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 If the GFS and euro are right. 2' easily to the berks and down to NYC. We'll have to see if the models are right with the second max along the low level frontogenesis area/CF like the EC and GFS have. That will depend on where the low stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 If this does stall SE and try to retro a bit, the coastal flooding I imagine, will be really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The CMC has it snowing for almost 48 hours for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I know what you mean, but I sort of worry of a GFS solution with such intense dynamics here. The thing is, you probably will get bured with a track SE of ACK. This circulation is huge, throw out common perceptions you have for climo snow tracks. All of you. Yeah there are reasons for both solutions to work out. It'll be interesting to see the trends at 12z and 00z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I always generally think in high wind events, 10:1 is a good starting point. 10-12:1. You can still get great dendrites but wind packing on the ground also will bring down ratios. I'm assuming with the bomb off-shore and low level jet of like 30-60kts depending on location, that this will come in under the "storm snow" ratios which generally seem to hold between 10-12:1. Maybe the last few inches go to 18:1? I bet that first slug will be pretty dense (not wet though) nor'easter snow. The 06z GFS has minimum omega values right within the dendritic growth zone. Lapse rates between 550 and 500 mb are around 7 deg/km so bands that develop should realize some very good vertical motion and therefore have excellent growth conditions for dendrites. For Boston: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 06z GFS has minimum omega values right within the dendritic growth zone. Lapse rates between 550 and 500 mb are around 7 deg/km so bands that develop should realize some very good vertical motion and therefore have excellent growth conditions for dendrites. For Boston: Screenshot from 2015-01-25 08:15:05.png Desturctive, dendrite-destroying winds for the ratio loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 06z GFS has minimum omega values right within the dendritic growth zone. Lapse rates between 550 and 500 mb are around 7 deg/km so bands that develop should realize some very good vertical motion and therefore have excellent growth conditions for dendrites. For Boston: Screenshot from 2015-01-25 08:15:05.png Yeah I'm just going on past experience from QPF heavy nor'easters with significant wind. It just seems hard to get 15-20:1 ratios in 40mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Desturctive, dendrite-destroying winds for the ratio loss. LOL, Eeyore. Who cares in a storm like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 How strong can we expect interior winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah I'm just going on past experience from QPF heavy nor'easters with significant wind. It just seems hard to get 15-20:1 ratios in 40mph winds. You can get dendrites still, but it will blow and drift around, thus reducing ratios on ground. I don't have Currier and Ives fetish like some do in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Im sorry, that is a terrible trendPermaban worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 How strong can we expect interior winds? Gotta imagine they'll be strong. 40? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Gotta imagine they'll be strong. 40? I've not heard much talk about winds. Potential for anything noteworthy in eastern areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Permaban worthy He had a semi meltdown on the euro last night but I think he composed himself a bit before signing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Permaban worthy He's right for folks down here..but that's besides his point. I don't like the tucking trend. probably means we get a dryslot or flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 BOX forecast ending 7am Wednesday: image.jpg Finally, Box recognizing my 500' of elevation in Columbia lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This winter was on a futility run a week ago. Two days ago, we were getting 3-6 tainted mush followed by watching another clipper whiff south. Everybody just stfu with the whining. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I've not heard much talk about winds. Potential for anything noteworthy in eastern areas? Coast could have gusts to hurricane force, esp SE MA and the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Desturctive, dendrite-destroying winds for the ratio loss. My God have you become completely miserable! Snap out of it - blizzard incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Coast could have gusts to hurricane force, esp SE MA and the Cape. Wow, that could be pretty impressive with such a long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 disturbing posting trends late last nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 dont forget to take pictures before the storm so we can compare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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