RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I get what you're saying but it doesn't work that way after the latest modeling and discussion. Someone will get more than you, it's ok just enjoy The ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 1-2' region wide with lollies to 3' and peeps are dissapointed....ya can't make this stuff up. Expectations were always going to be out of whack. These types of occluding systems can yield some big jacks, but some weird screw jobs too. Probably best weenies don't set the over/under too high. Funny that there is disappointment though when I essentially doubled the snowfall forecast from 12 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The range of the GFS and NAM is 15-23" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 How many inches were you getting 3 days ago on this one? Haha, some on here will need to be smacked if they are disappointed with anything in this storm. This wasn't even here like 24-30 hours ago. I just can't believe the "afraid of only getting 16 inches" type comments when 5 days ago they were crying in their cheerios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Expectations were always going to be out of whack. These types of occluding systems can yield some big jacks, but some weird screw jobs too. Probably best weenies don't set the over/under too high. Funny that there is disappointment though when I essentially doubled the snowfall forecast from 12 hours ago. There will be screw jobs but worrying about being in one is not how I'd approach a historic event. Keep expectations in check for my yard but the overall picture is beautiful....and whoever Jacks will remember this forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 ANd wind gust range is 60-80mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Haha, some on here will need to be smacked if they are disappointed with anything in this storm. This wasn't even here like 24-30 hours ago. Our forecast yesterday afternoon was literally a coastal storm could affect the area Tuesday. Now we're honking big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The range of the GFS and NAM is 15-23" of snow. Given consensus tracks I'd expect much less but I still expect the evolution to change a bit ... And that would help. You and I look good for 4-8 this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The GFS is printing out 15" of snow for CC, and the NAM is printing out 23", the EURO is 20"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 You guys will all be ripping and dancing in the streets in your underwear. Here's what I'm going to be experiencing. I know who's not going to be having fun....... Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Didn't see the 00z UKMET posted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Our forecast yesterday afternoon was literally a coastal storm could affect the area Tuesday. Now we're honking big time. True. I have a jackpot fetish. Never been in one before. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 TWC seems to have a good map actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Our forecast yesterday afternoon was literally a coastal storm could affect the area Tuesday. Now we're honking big time. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 True. I have a jackpot fetish. Never been in one before. Lol. Move to AFN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Still snowing Wednesday morning most areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Ukie is an eastern outliner. I don't buy almost nothing for nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Didn't see the 00z UKMET posted... TBH I'm expecting fairly significant changes these next two runs. It'll either snap to a slightly later development this run or tip to an earlier tuck. Don't care enough to look to see where it may be headed whatever will happen will happen. I do know staring down the barrel of a few of these in the last season or two they stalled later. Euro ensembles were? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Any idea on what we can expect for ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Did anyone have significant snow pack prior to 2/2013? I honestly can't remember. Even if this storm comes in smaller than that one for a lot of areas, I have to wonder if total snow pack will eclipse it. Come to think of it - is there a place where historic snow depth is tracked officially? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Metro west always does well in these situations. Medway, Bellingham, Millis, Medfield...I suspect you will see some of the highest totals around there by Wednesday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Exciting! My forecast for mby is 18-24. Good enough...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 For the archives . . . AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 649 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 . SYNOPSIS... A CLIPPER LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY MONDAY MORNING...WHERE A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS STORM WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND BECOME A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CATSKILLS AND NE PA WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS MORNING AND CLEAR SKIES OUT ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE... JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON INITIAL CONDITIONS. FORECAST ON TRACK. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST...WHICH WILL UNDERGO MAJOR AMPLIFICATION AS A DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE MS VALLEY CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE EAST COAST TROF BY MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TODAY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LAYING DOWN THE FOUNDATION FOR COLD AIR AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. WEST WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW THIS AFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE 35 TO 40...WARMEST NEAR THE COAST. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV MOS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWERING AND THICKENING AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES TO WORK INTO THE AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MON. THE INGREDIENTS ARE THEN COMING TOGETHER FOR A POSSIBLE HISTORIC NOR`EASTER AS A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY MON. THIS LOW UNDERGOES RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE LOW CUTS OFF ALOFT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC MON NIGHT...LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MSLP DROPS NEARLY 30 MB IN 24H FROM MON TO TUE MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NW FLANK OF THE LOW WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MDT-HVY SNOW IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MEMBERS SUPPORTS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT. THAT BEING THE CASE...SNOW BANDING WILL LIKELY EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR AT TIMES. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A FOOT WITH AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 2 FT POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE MOST INTENSE BANDING IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS JUNCTURE. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW TRACK AND ITS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER PCPN HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL CREATE NEAR OR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR LI AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CT...WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH ELSEWHERE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUST OF 35 TO 50 MPH...HIGHEST TO THE EAST. LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS MON MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY PICKS UP IN THE LATE AFT. MDT-HVY SNOW WILL FALL FOR MUCH OF MON NIGHT INTO TUE BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUE EVENING. TEMPS DURING THE STORM WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... BEHIND THE STORM...DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A WEAKER LOW AFFECTS US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CAPPED POPS A CHANCE FOR SNOW...WITH PRECIPITATION MORE LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT MIXED PRECIPITATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Any idea on what we can expect for ratios? I always generally think in high wind events, 10:1 is a good starting point. 10-12:1. You can still get great dendrites but wind packing on the ground also will bring down ratios. I'm assuming with the bomb off-shore and low level jet of like 30-60kts depending on location, that this will come in under the "storm snow" ratios which generally seem to hold between 10-12:1. Maybe the last few inches go to 18:1? I bet that first slug will be pretty dense (not wet though) nor'easter snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Didn't see the 00z UKMET posted... Is that all??? :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 TBH I'm expecting fairly significant changes these next two runs. It'll either snap to a slightly later development this run or tip to an earlier tuck. Don't care enough to look to see where it may be headed whatever will happen will happen. I do know staring down the barrel of a few of these in the last season or two they stalled later. I tend to agree with you, these things do seem to end up more northeast than progged when they finally hook and stall. The models sometimes rush those things, as much as I don't like it because I need an early capture under Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 BOX forecast ending 7am Wednesday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Is that all??? :lol: Just a crushing for the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 If there was still a WOY then Ray just won hands down after that performance last night. So funny catching up on the play by play this morning. Great stuff Ray I remember in the VD storm me sleeting while you were 5 miles away in pouring snow running down your street naked. We've had bare ground for 2 months your going to Eyeore yourself to 18+. You mad bro ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I tend to agree with you, these things do seem to end up more northeast than progged when they finally hook and stall. The models sometimes rush those things, as much as I don't like it because I need an early capture under Long Island. I know what you mean, but I sort of worry of a GFS solution with such intense dynamics here. The thing is, you probably will get bured with a track SE of ACK. This circulation is huge, throw out common perceptions you have for climo snow tracks. All of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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