weathercoins Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah sleep isn't going to be happening for a while. Amazing how fast this came together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Here's one for the archives (excerpted)... apologies for long copy-paste but worth storing: Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 456 am EST sun Jan 25 2015 Long term /Monday night through Saturday/... highlights... * major to potentially historic winter storm Monday night into Tuesday night * blizzard watch eastern Massachusetts/Rhode Island * 1 to 2 feet of snow for many areas - locally higher amts possible * damaging winds possible coast especially cape/islands - gusts 60 to 70 miles per hour * significant coastal flooding possible along the eastern Massachusetts coast Details... This is pretty much a text book case for a major winter storm/blizzard in southern New England. Potent shortwave dives southeast closes off south of Long Island as low pressure bombs out and tracks up the New England coast. The highly amplified pattern will allow for a slow moving/long duration storm. In addition...high pressure across eastern Canada will supply plenty of cold air for the storm to work with so ptype will probably only be a concern for the far southeast New England coast. We are now quite confident that this will be a major winter storm and it has the potential to become historic for some locations. Will break down the various hazards in the next view paragraphs. 1) heavy snow/blizzard conditions/wind and ptype The middle level low/S are closing off just south of southern New England Monday night and Tuesday. That will probably put US near ground zero for the heaviest snow. The models are in very good agreement in showing 1 to 2 feet of snow for much of the region. Of course there may be areas that exceed 2 feet where localized banding sets up...but its too early to worry about that. Very strong pressure gradient with 1035 mb high over eastern Canada and bombing surface low will likely result in strong to damaging northeast wind gusts of 45 to 60 miles per hour across eastern MA/RI. Gusts between 60 to 70 miles per hour expected across the cape/islands! Will issue a blizzard watch for much of eastern Massachusetts/Rhode Island for 1 to 2 feet of snow and 40 to 60 miles per hour wind gusts. This looks to be a serious winter storm and travel will likely become extremely difficult to impossible with near zero visibility. Considerable blowing and drifting snow also expected. Across central and western Massachusetts/northern CT have issued a Winter Storm Watch for 12 to 24 inches of snow. Its possible we may have to upgrade some of that region to a blizzard watch/warning...but was uncertain how much wind would mix down across that region and its still a late 4th and 5th period event. We are also leaning towards the western envelope of solutions at this time led the consistent European model (ecmwf). If the storm trends east a bit...we may be overdone with our snow accumulations across our western zones so something for later shifts to watch. The cape and islands present the most challenging forecast. Depending on exact track of the storm...portions of the region may mix with or change to rain for a time. If colder solutions verify there will be blizzard conditions...but if it ends up warmer could be a fair amount of rain. Therefore...will hoist a winter storm and high wind watch. In fact...we like going with the high wind watch here for the potential of 60 to 70 miles per hour winds. This may combine with any wet snow to cause downed trees and power outages. 2) timing: The worst of the storm looks to occur Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. At least snow showers will likely linger Tuesday night as the system becomes vertically stacked and very slow to depart the region. Dry weather should finally work into the region sometime Wednesday morning. 3) narrow swath of damaging wet snow Will have to watch for a narrow swath of heavy wet snow along the southeast New England coast. This could be problematic in terms of downed trees and power outages...especially given the strong winds. It may be a small area just northwest of the rain/snow line...but could have a significant impact. Wednesday through Saturday... While the storm comes to an end early Wednesday morning and the cleanup begins...we may be dealing with another winter storm later Thursday or Friday. Outlook /Monday night through Thursday/... ***life threatening storm for mariners with seas building to over 25 feet and winds gusts to 60 knots Monday night into tuesday*** Monday night through Tuesday night...moderate to high confidence. Rapidly intensifying low pressure moving across the waters will combine with high pressure across eastern New England. This will result in northeast wind gusts increasing to 50 to 60 knots and building seas to over 25 feet across our eastern waters. Storm watches posted and low probability that we may need hurricane force wind warnings! This is dangerous and life threatening storm and mariners should return to port by Monday afternoon. && Tides/coastal flooding... a significant coastal flood event is possible along the eastern Massachusetts coast during the early Tuesday morning and late Tuesday afternoon high tide cycle. Northeast wind gusts between 45 and 60 knots will seas building to over 25 feet across our eastern outer waters. Astronomical high tide is 10.5 feet in Boston on Tuesday at 430 am. The potential for a 3+ foot storm surge may result in moderate to isolated pockets of major coastal flooding. Another high tide will have to watch closely occurs late Tuesday afternoon/early evening since seas will be built up. In addition...significant beach erosion is possible. A coastal Flood Watch has been issued for eastern Massachusetts including Cape Cod and Nantucket. && Box watches/warnings/advisories... CT...Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through late Tuesday night for ctz002>004. Massachusetts...blizzard watch from Monday evening through late Tuesday night for maz005>007-013>021. Coastal Flood Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday evening for maz007-015-016-019-022-024. Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through late Tuesday night for maz002>004-008>012-022>024-026. High wind watch from Monday evening through late Tuesday night for maz022>024. Rhode Island...blizzard watch from Monday evening through late Tuesday night for riz001>008. Marine...storm watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening for anz230>237-250-251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for anz230>234-236-251. Small Craft Advisory until 1 am EST Monday for anz235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Monday for anz250-254>256. && $$ Synopsis...Frank/doody near term...doody short term...doody long term...Frank aviation...Frank/doody marine...Frank tides/coastal flooding...staff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think the wind will be very impressive...seeing terms like "historic nor'easter" and "white hurricane" popping in the media this morning...supermarket chaos FTW...on the road all day, so it's gas and firewood before sunrise for me...enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Finally able to log in again. What have I missed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Anyone remember how long Logan was closed last time 12-18 inches fell there? I've got Monday, Wednesday and Thursday flights this week into and out of Logan. Thinking if canceling the first round trip but I'm worried about the second one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 That GFS solution does seem too tucked in based on the Euro/GGEM and Euro ens. Again..just as Ekster said ..don't use it in your forecasts..even if it is a super snowy solution. Seems like winds are going to gust to 80 mph along the coast regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 6z GEFS are pretty awesome for everyone. Would even get us into Warning criteria snows all the way up here where QPF comes to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 1 in 4 forecasts higher than this? Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Long time in coming but worth the wait. One storm will help the seasonal forecasts for sure. 3' amount jackpots likely with the slant stick observers. I'm so friggin jealous. I had a laugh lastnight watching local news with reporters in the field, down jackets adorned with mets calling it fridged, WC in the 30's. I'm still in shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Good to wake to this. Great reading the near meltdowns over 24 vs 21" How can anyone not be psyched? Lots to do today, so I can only check in now and thn. Steady as she goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The worst timing EVER for a trip to Iowa: Leave BDL at 10:00a.m. Monday, return 8:00p.m. Wednesday. Can it suck anymore than that??? Enjoy this one guys........Chris, you'll need to be texting me through this event. It'll be welcome to read during a day-long meeting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angus Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The worst timing EVER for a trip to Iowa: Leave BDL at 10:00a.m. Monday, return 8:00p.m. Wednesday. Can it suck anymore than that??? Enjoy this one guys........Chris, you'll need to be texting me through this event. It'll be welcome to read during a day-long meeting. flight out of BOS on Tuesday AM...Monday AM's "to-do" send notification of meeting cancellation to clients! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Good to wake to this. Great reading the near meltdowns over 24 vs 21" How can anyone not be psyched? Lots to do today, so I can only check in now and thn. Steady as she goes I'm allegedly flying out of Worcester Monday evening, not psyched thinking about that; very happy about the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Went to bed thinking, "OK this is great---but we'll see what's up in the morning", only to find out it just got better. And a second potential on its heels. We go from January snow desert to ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm allegedly flying out of Worcester Monday evening, not psyched thinking about that; very happy about the storm What time? That might not happen...can you rebook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What time? That might not happen...can you rebook?7pm. Going to try today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 gonna be a wild ride..... I slept naked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Man 6z GFS would taint me...lol. Really tucked in. Also changes coastline forever. I thought the 6z rgem looked better in that regard. If I had to forecast for mby it'd only be 4-6". History of events this strong isn't great nearest the water in the euro-gfs type development. However i am not at all sold the pieces come together as quickly as the models indicate. The last season or two the tucks always seem to come progressively later inside of about. 48 hours per-event and I just have a feeling that'll happen this time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Over the past few hours the clipper has gained in size by two fold. The energetic disturbance has rotated several times in the satellite loop, this is getting exciting, a lot of energy involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Wow gyx only has 12-18 inches here. Agree with Ray - if only 12 inches happens it would be a huge disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 6z rgem looks great. Just starts to get going at the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Wow gyx only has 12-18 inches here. Agree with Ray - if only 12 inches happens it would be a huge disappointment Upton has me at 10-14" right now. Should I be jumping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 How come no blizzard watch for tolland seems like a no brainer there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Wow gyx only has 12-18 inches here. Agree with Ray - if only 12 inches happens it would be a huge disappointment You should start preparing for a huge disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The worst timing EVER for a trip to Iowa: Leave BDL at 10:00a.m. Monday, return 8:00p.m. Wednesday. Can it suck anymore than that??? Enjoy this one guys........Chris, you'll need to be texting me through this event. It'll be welcome to read during a day-long meeting. You may need to get "the flu" for this one and cancel your trip. lol I will text w/ pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Wow gyx only has 12-18 inches here. Agree with Ray - if only 12 inches happens it would be a huge disappointment How many inches were you getting 3 days ago on this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I could easily see this being a 12" storm or a 36" storm for Cape Cod, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 lol image.jpg deformation bands often have higher ratios. jackpot 40+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 1-2' region wide with lollies to 3' and peeps are dissapointed....ya can't make this stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 How many inches were you getting 3 days ago on this one?I get what you're saying but it doesn't work that way after the latest modeling and discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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