TheSnowman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What's the max potential on this storm? That's really how I judge the full scope. 30" or 36" or 40"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I book my flight and the NAM backs WAY Way off. 10-15 inches, 20 for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Winter Storm Watches and Blizzard watches are up!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I book my flight and the NAM backs WAY Way off. 10-15 inches, 20 for Boston. You booked your flight based on the Euro and you're using the NAM to drive yourself crazy. The NAM really doesn't have any utility at this juncture. Peak time for the storm is still 60+ hours away. We're lucky the NAM has it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Cape Cod is left out of the Blizzard Watch but has a Winter Storm Watch + High Wind Watch. I guess their logic is to focus on the high wind potential separately since it will be high end/possibly damaging. Seems a little odd since it implies that blizzard conditions won't be possible there. Is a Blizzard Watch + High Wind Watch not allowed? Does anyone know? Just curious, I don't mean to nitpick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Cape Cod is left out of the Blizzard Watch but has a Winter Storm Watch + High Wind Watch. I guess their logic is to focus on the high wind potential separately since it will be high end/possibly damaging. Seems a little odd since it implies that blizzard conditions won't be possible there. Is a Blizzard Watch + High Wind Watch not allowed? Does anyone know? Just curious, I don't mean to nitpick. Perhaps the temperature parameters or the possibility of mixing out there. It can happen in huge storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Btv already has a WSW for SE Vermont. I don't recall ever seeing watches put out this early before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Not dissapointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 anyone staying up with me for the 06z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Wpc THE CURRENT THINKING IS CLOSE TO WPC CONTINUITY BUT ADJUSTED FOR THE LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF CLOSE TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL ROUGHLY 12Z/27...AT WHICH POINT THE 00Z ECMWF STARTS TO STRAY FROM THE PACK IN HOLDING THE SURFACE LOW MORE SOUTH WHILE BETTER ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING AND THE LATEST MEANS LIE TO THE NORTH. THIS PREFERENCE REFLECTS MODEL TRENDS AND IS AWAY FROM THE EDGES OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING. HOWEVER...POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND ABOVE AVERAGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD LOWERS CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Cape Cod is left out of the Blizzard Watch but has a Winter Storm Watch + High Wind Watch. I guess their logic is to focus on the high wind potential separately since it will be high end/possibly damaging. Seems a little odd since it implies that blizzard conditions won't be possible there. Is a Blizzard Watch + High Wind Watch not allowed? Does anyone know? Just curious, I don't mean to nitpick. The reasoning is based on visibility criteria likely not being met, with mixing potential down there. I'm not positive if the blizzard and wind headlines are not allowed, but it is awkward since blizzard contains wind criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Not dissapointed Weenies at full mast tonight at GYX. Ekster and I tried not to go triple bunner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yardsticks of snow coming folks. Yardsticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The RPM is exactly what I'm afraid of....cf ehancement at the shore, and a wsstern deform. Caught in between here...prob still like 16-18", tho Already afraid of only 16-18" huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Weenies at full mast tonight at GYX. Ekster and I tried not to go triple bunner. Can always adjust up if need be............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looks like in SNE light snow breaks out by noon tomorrow .. 48-72 hours of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Already afraid of only 16-18" huh? Was begging for an inch a week ago.............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 06z GFS weenie snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 6z GFS produces more snow over Cape Cod than the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 12z runs could really iron out the Blizzard Watch potential or warning potential for CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 You don't need to be under a blizzard watch. Yardsticks of snow coming for all. This is Hammertime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 06z GFS weenie snow map No way we get over a foot up here...much less 12-24" haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Was begging for an inch a week ago.............lol It's funny watching some worry about QPF and modeled snow amounts when they always tell us not to. All the sudden temps aren't an issue and everyone becomes a QPF queen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 No way we get over a foot up here...much less 12-24" haha. That low was tucked in and pretty far west that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It's funny watching some worry about QPF and modeled snow amounts when they always tell us not to. All the sudden temps aren't an issue and everyone becomes a QPF queen. Fore some, That's there schtick i guess, I take whatever falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Accuweather forecasts 3-6" for Cape Cod, while the NWS says 7-14" with questions if it turns to rain or not, weather channel says 12=18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Man 6z GFS would taint me...lol. Really tucked in. Also changes coastline forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Well if the potential for 24-30" I would rather the storm meets its potential for my location. Ie the NAM model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 You booked your flight based on the Euro and you're using the NAM to drive yourself crazy. The NAM really doesn't have any utility at this juncture. Peak time for the storm is still 60+ hours away. We're lucky the NAM has it at all. I'm just playing good old Doubting Thomas haha. But what do people think for the Top totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Man 6z GFS would taint me...lol. Really tucked in. Also changes coastline forever. You would take a persistent beating from the ESE that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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