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Storm Disco for Manitoba Mauler 01/26/27


Damage In Tolland

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I like this thought

THE CURRENT THINKING IS CLOSE TO WPC CONTINUITY BUT ADJUSTED FOR

THE LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z CMC CLOSE TO

WHAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL ROUGHLY 00Z/28...AT WHICH POINT

THE 12Z CMC STARTS TO MOVE NORTH OF THE BETTER ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING

TO THE SOUTH. THIS PREFERENCE REFLECTS MODEL TRENDS AND IS AWAY

FROM THE EDGES OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING...LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF.

HOWEVER...POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND ABOVE AVERAGE ENSEMBLE

SPREAD LOWERS CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

OTTO

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