ROOSTA Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I knew as soon as I got to FL. and settled in winter would commence in New England. Right on cue, I'll take credit for the turn around...thank-you, thank-you. Had a good thunderstorm last-night booming till the early hours. Wind was gusting in the mid 30's most of the day. Been here for a week wearing nothing but t-shirt and shorts with temps mid 70's with lows in the upper 40's. Beautiful early Spring wx by NE standards. Now with no dog in the fight tough to watch snowstorms unfold but no bias involvement re: accumulations. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 never bet against the euro 18z gfs was almost exact to the euroThe gfs agreeing with an already "unrealistic" op euro run per ncep...enough reason to be suspicious of both.Again it's just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 i think that is bs even dt said the same thing i just think they cant believe it to be honest The gfs agreeing with an already "unrealistic" op euro run per ncep...enough reason to be suspicious of both.Again it's just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It's the nam.remember when it led the way with the last snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 That said, a non-hydrostatic model like the 4 KM NAM isn't the best either. lol that said twice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 That said, a non-hydrostatic model like the 4 KM NAM isn't the best either. lol that said twice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 i think that is bs even dt said the same thing i just think they cant believe it to be honest Convective feedback is touted far too often. I think it's overall influence in disturbing model runs is much lower than sometimes believed at this stage. That said for a few different reasons I don't believe....yet...in a solution like the op 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It's the NAM for christ sake...a mesoscale model we're trusting with a highly dynamic system...Uhh how about no. If the GFS/RGEM/GGEM head east I'll be concerned, but till then it means nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Posted a while ago but with the server crash, some may not have seen it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Its was the Nam, Step back from the keyboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Any word on rgem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Rgem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It's the NAM for christ sake...a mesoscale model we're trusting with a highly dynamic system...Uhh how about no. If the GFS/RGEM/GGEM head east I'll be concerned, but till then it means nada People take opinions too literally. Saying that a consensus/slight east side of the cone is preferred doesn't equal "the nam is right" The NAM is a terrible model. It's unlikely right at this stage. But I do think if there is going to be movement it'll be towards the consensus tracks near the BM and not suddenly over buzzards bay for instance. But that's just my opinion. I think the pattern favors a system that hits the eastern areas hardest. I could be totally and completely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Rgem? Its late, Like i think they all will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Posted a while ago but with the server crash, some may not have seen it: King James won't approve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I posted earlier, huge factor is how all the pieces of energy rounding trough interact. I would not put too much weight on this specific 0z NAM solution, though I'm not dismissing it entirely because if pieces of energy at H5 overshoot as they do on 0z vs. 18z NAM, the system gets dragged east. Take comfort in Euro ensembles which were pretty dead on benchmark or slightly southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 VERY early obviously, 6 hours in lol, but it seems the shortwave is a tad weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Bufkit for PYM is 38 inches, 6 at ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Nice to have a few hour break but nice to see us back up. I will start to fret or cheer E or W trends starting with 0z Euro. I really don't care if E MA gets 30" of snow if we can pull 6-8" out here. 8 hours of -SN is the only thing that would have me melting down and that doesn't seem likely at the moment but tomorrow will establish the goal posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The cutoff on the Nam is comical. 18-24 SE mass to about 3-6 central Connecticut west. That would be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 IF this ends up moving toward a SNE crushing, I wonder how many weenies from other regions will make the trip up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The cutoff on the Nam is comical. 18-24 SE mass to about 3-6 central Connecticut west. That would be interesting The Fujiwhara a few years ago had not a flake in W MA while places in ORH Co. had 18"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The cutoff on the Nam is comical. 18-24 SE mass to about 3-6 central Connecticut west. That would be interesting Not saying its right or wrong...but how often do we see the north and west extent of precip underdone on the models in major events like this? Seems to happen more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 gfs less amped like the nam was at the start of its run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Not a surprise to see the GFS less amped...it was waaay west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Not saying its right or wrong...but how often do we see the north and west extent of precip underdone on the models in major events like this? Seems to happen more often than not. Oh I agree. I doubt it would verify like that. Just kind of funny too see that kind of gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 massive hit still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 GFS looks like a big-time hit again through 57 hrs for a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 still looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 978mb sitting on 41/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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