RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Its east, still a big hit for eastern SNE. A little too close for comfort for folks on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 getting destroyed at hr 60 Not so much, I mean solid but no Euro or GFS now hr 66... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It is the NAM. Can't put too much stock at this range. Definitely was a coastal special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This is an eastern areas special. I don't think there is any doubt at this stage all systems go.Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Huge hit hour 66... blizzard conditions all of eastern MA However, slight tick east, want to be sure the energy rounding base of trough doesn't overshoot and pull this thing farther east We will be watching that like a Hawk at 1:05 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 lol im not worried if the other models trend that way then i will be It is the NAM. Can't put too much stock at this range. Definitely was a coastal special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I guess I will just have to be happy with 6-8 inches. Congrats Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Well this isn't what we wanted to see......NAM made a decent push east. Have fun with the rest of the model suite. I work at 3 am. Will likely see many of you when I get up in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm fine being on the edge of the heavy qpf....deform city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Agree Far more worried about east creep than anything else. And the site crashing again. Two biggest worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The NAM at this range is purely fantasy. No need to worry for western folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'd rather this, then the dreaded Berkshire to Dendrite deform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Some of you guys are talking as if this is how it's going to play out. It's the NAM at 60 hours LOL. The GFS came in with a nuke at 18Z for most of us and the Euro is widespread 12+ amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 What does it look like for ORH? Can't figure it on the models, but GFS seems to give us a big hit. Any storms to compare this with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM is crushing = "Hooray!" NAM not what we want to see = "Well, it's just the NAM ... just fantasy" Anyway, no frets ... the Hockey East models have spoken, let's see what the NHLers have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I wonder how NYC folks are doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Far more worried about east creep than anything else. And the site crashing again. Two biggest worries Has been my biggest "worry" as well. Tons of energy rounding this trough, and how it all interacts determines how this thing gets captured. That partly explains the variations we've seen, specifically: - 12z EC and CMC, there was a stray piece of vorticity shooting farther out and a low actually developed much farther east of our beast low - 0z NAM vs. 18z... vorticity overshoots and drags this a little farther east. Compare H5 at hour 54 on 0z NAM vs. hour 60 on 18z NAM, this over-shooting energy farther east is very clear on 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Some of you guys are talking as if this is how it's going to play out. It's the NAM at 60 hours LOL. The GFS came in with a nuke at 18Z for most of us and the Euro is widespread 12+ amounts. Ncep felt the op euro fell victim to convective feedback and was unrealistic. Anything GFS as of late is suspect. This is just my opinion but I suspect the non-west most tracks are going to verify. It may do the tuck and roll but I think the earlier euro type deal is very suspect . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Update: After having 0 reasonable flights possible for flying into Boston or Providence, one has popped up that gets in at 11pm Monday. The layover is Not in like Charlotte or BWI which is important. But is that too late? And if I have to fly in to BDL and if it was more 5pm/6pm, anyone willing to drive me back for $100? The flights going to Boston and Providence will be $300 more if I don't book the Boston one at 11pm. Praying the models are concise on it starting later. THANKS IN ADVANCE GUYS! GOT TO GET HOME! But I have to get info Fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The NAM at this range is purely fantasy. No need to worry for western folk. IF the Euro shifted east I would be much more concerned. The Euro Ensembles looked pretty locked in as well. This is probably just typical model noise from the NAM. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It's the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I wonder how NYC folks are doing Counting our lucky stars that the only xanax-worthy model is the NAM, mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It's the nam. people freaking out over the NAM, it's a tiny piece of the puzzle.. I mean tiny.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The Hires NAM is substantially west of the regular NAM, at hour 60(end of the run) heavy snow is back to NYC and it's still clearly retrograding west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Counting our lucky stars that the only xanax-worthy model is the NAM, mostly. Man the Gfs and Euro runs should have everyone and their mother on-line. Spend a bit of time with the lady right now fellas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 That said, a non-hydrostatic model like the 4 KM NAM isn't the best either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 That said, a non-hydrostatic model like the 4 KM NAM isn't the best either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 never bet against the euro 18z gfs was almost exact to the euro The Hires NAM is substantially west of the regular NAM, at hour 60(end of the run) heavy snow is back to NYC and it's still clearly retrograding west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 never bet against the euro 18z gfs was almost exact to the euro I'm not. Went pretty bullish in our discussion tonight, didn't throw out specifics but mentioned possible 20"+ totals in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Take a nap and wake up for the Euro. Save yourself alot of unnecessary anxiety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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