Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Regardless of these details, the important fact is all guidance shows the phasing. One of the more purer forms I've seen in memory. There's like nothing lost there. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Basing my forecast ideas more on a blend than specifically on Euro. With almost all guidance showing explosive development south of Long Island, would expect a surge of very strong winds during the mid to late day on Tuesday, my original comment about 70 mph was meant to refer to peak gusts which still seems reasonable at least in areas exposed to the east or northeast, sustained winds of 45-55 mph possible in coastal and elevated locations, somewhere like ORH or PVD likely to peak at about 35 mph gusting to 55. Hope that gives a clearer picture of what I'm forecasting on wind speeds, not expecting region-wide 70 mph sustained winds (Lord help you if that happens). As for snowfall amounts, local bullseye amounts of 30-35 inches possible between BOS and ORH, and in w CT, otherwise patchwork quilt of 15-25 inch amounts except only 4-8 on Cape Cod which I think will be overshot by the rapidly spinning up precip shield. Central Long Island to see perhaps 20-25 inch local max, NYC about 15-20, some higher amounts in n NJ ... I am not totally buying into a huge back-thump into n NJ and prefer a storm max in MA rather than NJ despite analogues (have to say that to some extent Mar 11-12 1888 is in the analogue set too). Not much risk of mixing issues except outer Cape Cod perhaps. No doubt it will form strong bands and variance from location to location might be on the order of 25% or even 40%. Over/under on DT insults is 37. Justified 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Basing my forecast ideas more on a blend than specifically on Euro. With almost all guidance showing explosive development south of Long Island, would expect a surge of very strong winds during the mid to late day on Tuesday, my original comment about 70 mph was meant to refer to peak gusts which still seems reasonable at least in areas exposed to the east or northeast, sustained winds of 45-55 mph possible in coastal and elevated locations, somewhere like ORH or PVD likely to peak at about 35 mph gusting to 55. Hope that gives a clearer picture of what I'm forecasting on wind speeds, not expecting region-wide 70 mph sustained winds (Lord help you if that happens). As for snowfall amounts, local bullseye amounts of 30-35 inches possible between BOS and ORH, and in w CT, otherwise patchwork quilt of 15-25 inch amounts except only 4-8 on Cape Cod which I think will be overshot by the rapidly spinning up precip shield. Central Long Island to see perhaps 20-25 inch local max, NYC about 15-20, some higher amounts in n NJ ... I am not totally buying into a huge back-thump into n NJ and prefer a storm max in MA rather than NJ despite analogues (have to say that to some extent Mar 11-12 1888 is in the analogue set too). Not much risk of mixing issues except outer Cape Cod perhaps. No doubt it will form strong bands and variance from location to location might be on the order of 25% or even 40%. Over/under on DT insults is 37. Justified 23. what are your early thoughts for southern nh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 WPC's 12"+ probabilities for Day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Given the cold HP do we see OES starting Mon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Scooter caution flag, step back and breathe. We all have seen some big changes, if tomorrow is great then hype away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Scooter caution flag, step back and breathe. We all have seen some big changes, if tomorrow is great then hype away. Get some sleep. Lots of runs to watch this unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Early thoughts for s NH ... 15-18" similar to coastal and sw Maine, fairly steep gradient there to Cdn border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Quick notes of caution... This system has evolved in the models to be a very large, and powerfully dynamic system. So much so that it will have "it's own" internal idiosyncrasies that will inevitably emerge, and be poorly modeled when they do. Such nuances can and do have an impact on sensible as well as more meaningful strike events... Having said that, the Euro actually is processing details that may not even exist ... or, perhaps they will; but the point being, with immense systems of certain power comes along equally daunting complexities, and the Euro's creating a wave out over the Gulf Stream may have a couple considerations.... ecm1.jpg One, it may rob some moisture from wrapping W into the CCB band. It may also cut off some of the WCB ingest into the core deep layer mechanics. The 2ndary result of that (if in deed it is an error) is that the system may actually not be currently modeled deep or prolific enough in that particular guidance source... That said, there is soooo much incredible dynamics with this thing, satellite vortices (to borrow an expression from our Plains brethren) almost seem necessary. I could almost even envision a wave forming over the Bahamas after the cold front clears Florida. CMC has that feature too: With both Euro and CMC, multiple pieces of vorticity swinging around the trough, one piece gets out farther east: Third note of caution, probably less likely, is a fujiwara effect swinging our main bombing low south and east? I also wonder, in the positive column, if that stray energy farther east is preventing this from occluding sooner and further southwest, and ultimately yielding a better result for SNE? Still doesn't take away from fact that there's incredible consensus in the 12z suite for explosive cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 SREF's increasing QPF over time.. looks like bullseye in EMA 1.75"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ensembles seem to match the op. Blizzard for pretty much everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro ensembles huge solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 They are east of the op a bit which is no surprise, but similar behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ensembles seem to match the op. Blizzard for pretty much everyone.mslp mean is a little east of the op, but that's fine for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 mslp mean is a little east of the op, but that's fine for us. Yeah it's a few miles east, but in terms of the general idea of bringing QPF further back west, it holds that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Euro ensembles swing the storm out further to the east but it's still a huge hit. 1"+ for most of SNE except Berkshires. 1.5 for BOS-PVD and SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 mslp mean is a little east of the op, but that's fine for us. 973.6mb on the mean, Just SE of the BM, We don't toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Very strong cluster on the individuals(Probably 30/50 within 25-50 miles of each other) just west of the mean and similar to or perhaps a hair west of the op. Then another cluster slightly NE of the mean and a couple members that are total misses(Probably miss the phase if I had to guess). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 Aren't they always east of the op? That's a good thing..Means another bumper west tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Geezus Ens really look fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Aren't they always east of the op? That's a good thing..Means another bumper west tonight I don't think you want anymore bump west. You don't want to risk a 500-600mb dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 Can't stress enough..(MPM) DO NOT focus on qpf..Huge Easterly inflow..This will snow back to Buffalo. You don't need to be in the qpf bullseye on the models to get feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Aren't they always east of the op? That's a good thing..Means another bumper west tonightThey were NW of the op for awhile for today's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Aren't they always east of the op? That's a good thing..Means another bumper west tonight No. I don't think we want another bump west, as it is you're sort of in a min between the two areas of max in NYC metro and BOS metro. I wouldn't mind even ticking it east a smidge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Scooter caution flag, step back and breathe. We all have seen some big changes, if tomorrow is great then hype away. Yup, expectations are easy to adjust up, disappointment is difficult to adjust down. This blew up really quickly on the models so it is hard not to expect some changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 This was tweeted so I think it's OK to post because it's now public domain? Cluster of lows from the 12z ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 No. I don't think we want another bump west, as it is you're sort of in a min between the two areas of max in NYC metro and BOS metro. I wouldn't mind even ticking it east a smidge. I'm not worried about anyone being in any "min". Those things never end up working out like models show them..It's a big hit for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It will be interesting to see if that is legit. IT shows up on the vorticity field too..kind of blows up NE of HSE between 60-66 versus the "real" vorticity further east swinging around the east side of the shortwave much further E. Very obvious on the vorticity fields but I don't think it can be discarded as an artifact as it could conceivably develop that way. IMO convective feedback is an overplayed relic from modeling days gone by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Aren't they always east of the op? That's a good thing..Means another bumper west tonight How do ensembles east of the OP mean its bumping west tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Wow, ensemble support and model consensus on a big hit within 3 days. Naturally it's too early to lock anything in, but I think we can say with fair confidence that the storm *is* going to affect the region, it's more a matter of how big that hit ends up being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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