dryslot Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 3 storms in 7 days on the Euro, Fun times ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 When does it start? Around 6z Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I think this is the apex of the west trend. These weak niño-Miller Bs are e MA focused. The last few have strayed west....time for regression. Its fine where it is now in the west, I just need it a bit further north, haha. If it took that same track but a bit further north it would be over Long Island when it first bombs out. Though I know you are looking for that storm where it snows 24" in E.Mass but everyone west of 495 is smoking cirrus, . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 When does it start? for you...10pm Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Had to make my first Amex Facebook update in a month. Total QPF from the euro is on there if you weenies want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Anywhere from say Scituate, MA right down to the Cape Cod Canal along the coast are pretty epic during Blizzards. Thanks so much for your expertise and thoughtful advice. Last year was my very first endeavor with chasing a prospective hecs/blizzard; chose Chatham, MA (Lighthouse Beach) for the March 26 storm. As we get closer to "zero hour", I will most definitely be relying on the knowledge and experience of those, like yourself, who are vastly more experienced with this fascinating phenomenon-based on firsthand experience. Must admit that I'm genuinely more apprehensive about attempting to document a hecs (blizzard) with a couple feet of snow and 70 mph wind gusts, than all of the 25 hurricanes I've intercepted, to date. Totally feel out of my element in that regard. Hope it all works out for each of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Inside 96 hours this went from whiff to HECS. Parts of north-central NJ went from 0" to 30" in 1 Euro cycle I'm just looking at 12z suite now... incredible consensus. Just because it hasn't been mentioned yet, 12z NAVGEM can be added, 977mb near benchmark. Really just remarkable consensus all the sudden. Obviously one key variable in flux for SNE is timing of capture and when this occludes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I know people are excited (and we should be), but let's try to cut the banter and useless posts out of this thread. The pages will be flying already as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Any info on winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 3 storms in 7 days on the Euro, Fun times ahead Yeah the tide is turning for you guys... going from NW New England focused winter weather, to eastern/southern New England focused winter weather. We knew it would switch around for a period of time...climo wasn't going to allow futility in a weak Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 I know people are excited (and we should be), but let's try to cut the banter and useless posts out of this thread. The pages will be flying already as it is.For superstitious purposes.. Please let this thread take us right up to the storm. No matter how many posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick T Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 the green color is 30 inches in nj Check out the little tiny 36" blob over Trenton NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Any info on winds? Big gradient=big winds. Cold temps, very heavy snow with winds in excess of 30 knots should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I know people are excited (and we should be), but let's try to cut the banter and useless posts out of this thread. The pages will be flying already as it is. Yeah we need to keep this a bit more technical on the storm...we have the banter thread for random excitement posts. That's what we made it for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Anyone have any guesses on ratios? The SREF plumes are printing out 12-15:1 or so from this morning's run but I don't know how accurate they are with calculating that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 Any info on winds?Roger said 70mph for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Quick notes of caution... This system has evolved in the models to be a very large, and powerfully dynamic system. So much so that it will have "it's own" internal idiosyncrasies that will inevitably emerge, and be poorly modeled when they do. Such nuances can and do have an impact on sensible as well as more meaningful strike events... Having said that, the Euro actually is processing details that may not even exist ... or, perhaps they will; but the point being, with immense systems of certain power comes along equally daunting complexities, and the Euro's creating a wave out over the Gulf Stream may have a couple considerations.... One, it may rob some moisture from wrapping W into the CCB band. It may also cut off some of the WCB ingest into the core deep layer mechanics. The 2ndary result of that (if in deed it is an error) is that the system may actually not be currently modeled deep or prolific enough in that particular guidance source... That said, there is soooo much incredible dynamics with this thing, satellite vortices (to borrow an expression from our Plains brethren) almost seem necessary. I could almost even envision a wave forming over the Bahamas after the cold front clears Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Yeah we need to keep this a bit more technical on the storm...we have the banter thread for random excitement posts. That's what we made it for. Was this all of the sudden shift a function of today's storm getting out of the way? I mean, why is there clear consensus from all guidance today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Big gradient=big winds. Cold temps, very heavy snow with winds in excess of 30 knots should be fun. Winds are going to be a major issue on se and east facing shores. Tides are meh though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Roger said 70mph for all Euro has 70-80 knots at 850.. not sure how to translate that down to surface but not sure if 70 is reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Yeah...agreed. I don't want this thing occluding by the time it gets up to our region. Big hit though. Saving grace is that when full phases/stalls actually occur, its usually a bit further North and east than where modelled a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Saving grace is that when full phases/stalls actually occur, its usually a bit further North and east than where modelled a few days out. Yeah Feb 2013 actually did that...it was originally modeled to phase fully about 100 miles SW of where it did...probably prevented SNE from getting pretty widespread 30-35"+ totals vs just in that one band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Wpc THE 12Z ECMWF USES WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYE AT 60-66 HOURS/MONDAY NIGHT TO DRAG ITS SURFACE LOW DUE NORTH ONCE IT EMERGES OFF CAPE HATTERAS, WHICH LOOKS UNREALISTIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Wpc THE 12Z ECMWF USES WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYE AT 60-66 HOURS/MONDAY NIGHT TO DRAG ITS SURFACE LOW DUE NORTH ONCE IT EMERGES OFF CAPE HATTERAS, WHICH LOOKS UNREALISTIC. I'm surprised they don't see the loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Is that a 48" marker? or anomaly ? Not sure what you're referencing. No 48" on there. Max zone was 30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Wpc THE 12Z ECMWF USES WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYE AT 60-66 HOURS/MONDAY NIGHT TO DRAG ITS SURFACE LOW DUE NORTH ONCE IT EMERGES OFF CAPE HATTERAS, WHICH LOOKS UNREALISTIC. It will be interesting to see if that is legit. IT shows up on the vorticity field too..kind of blows up NE of HSE between 60-66 versus the "real" vorticity further east swinging around the east side of the shortwave much further E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Wpc THE 12Z ECMWF USES WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYE AT 60-66 HOURS/MONDAY NIGHT TO DRAG ITS SURFACE LOW DUE NORTH ONCE IT EMERGES OFF CAPE HATTERAS, WHICH LOOKS UNREALISTIC. That's a weird paragraph that I don't agree with. The Euro shows the classic capture/close off of a major nor'easter off the coast. Many of the "big ones" have that. Doesn't have a classic convective feedback sig either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Wpc THE 12Z ECMWF USES WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYE AT 60-66 HOURS/MONDAY NIGHT TO DRAG ITS SURFACE LOW DUE NORTH ONCE IT EMERGES OFF CAPE HATTERAS, WHICH LOOKS UNREALISTIC. I posted an annotated chart that discusses that very same feature... I would not take this Euro run verbatim because of that... duh, but more so than is normal for a D4-less Euro run. I think this beast is overwhelming ever for that guidance source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Regardless of these details, the important fact is all guidance shows the phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Here's a bunner thought: This system has two blizzard pulses; one from the initial backing in of the CCB, but then that wave out there moves west and slams into the coast with another greedy round... sweet - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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