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Storm Disco for Manitoba Mauler 01/26/27


Damage In Tolland

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I don't think a track over ack would hurt too many folks. I doubt there would be taint anywhere west of the low center. But SnowMan is not forward thnking. He'll be struck in Boston for days if he just decided to stay in town Monday night. :P

 

He also doesn't need a track over ACK...

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I don't think a track over ack would hurt too many folks. I doubt there would be taint anywhere west of the low center. But SnowMan is not forward thnking. He'll be struck in Boston for days if he just decided to stay in town Monday night. :P

Actually I work in Nashua now :). No worries about commutes lol.
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One thing I learned from road tripping to NEMO in Marlboro MA was the deform zone tends to set up slightly W of modeled

 

My rule of thumb is to expect it to setup over MPM.

 

HAHA Nice. Well I'm sure glad I didn't come home for the 3-6 dud (Which I felt was a dud all along) but I'm supposed to come home Tuesday from the NAMM Show in LA. I'm relying on All my best weather buds to tell me if I should change flights to Monday (Currently about 200 bucks more) to not miss this.

Thanks in Advance!

Book it  :cory: HECS seems to be on the table.  

 

(PS. Don't listen to me, I just wanted to use the emoticon mostly)

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CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM EVOLVING INTO A NOR'EASTER MON/TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE (CLOSE TO THE UKMET)
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH SOME OF IT
INTRODUCED BY AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE STREAKING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOME INTRODUCED BY ITS BURGEONING SIZE OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM
AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS
FARTHEST TO THE EAST/WEAKEST ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO ITS
FASTER PROGRESSION WITH BOTH THIS AND AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WHILE
THE 12Z GFS IS THE STRONGEST/MOST CONSOLIDATED ALOFT. THE 00Z
ECMWF/12Z UKMET/12Z NAM/12Z GFS TAKE THE SURFACE LOW MUCH CLOSER
TO THE 40N 70W "BENCHMARK" (A RELIC TERM FROM THE OLD ACETATE DAYS
AT NMC). WITH AT LEAST TWO NOTABLE SHORTWAVES MERGING TO CREATE
THIS LARGE SYSTEM, IT COULD TAKE A WHILE TO CONSOLIDATE ALOFT, SO
THE GFS IS PROBABLY TOO DEEP ALOFT. THE TREND IN THE ECMWF IS
TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY SYSTEM, WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMET HAVE
TRENDED STRONGER ALOFT OVER THEIR PAST DAY OF RUNS, WHICH HAS
FORCES A WESTWARD TREND AT THE SURFACE. WITH THE STRENGTHENING
TREND ALOFT/WESTERLY SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK TREND, THE 00Z GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAY HAVE LITTLE UTILITY TODAY. A COMPROMISE OF
THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF, CLOSE TO THE 12Z UKMET, AND IS PREFERRED
WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE EVER-CHANGING
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.

 

THIS STORM AND MONITORING EFFORTS ARE IN HIGH MODEL FLUX AS THE 

TREND IS TOO FAR FROM RESOLVED TO MAINTAIN A COGENT AND REALISTIC

CONFIDENCE ... CHECK BACK WITH ME LATER. 

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH

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It looks very similar to 00z...maybe just a smidge more amplified through 48h...but this will be another hit. We can obsess over the details of the hit, but they don't mean too much yet. The important thing to take away right now is the phase/retro will happen.

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