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Storm Disco for Manitoba Mauler 01/26/27


Damage In Tolland

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  On 1/25/2015 at 12:35 PM, powderfreak said:

Haha, some on here will need to be smacked if they are disappointed with anything in this storm. This wasn't even here like 24-30 hours ago.

I just can't believe the "afraid of only getting 16 inches" type comments when 5 days ago they were crying in their cheerios.

these people PF are the types who are never ever satiated.
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  On 1/25/2015 at 1:40 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Where could you see potential shaft zone?

Some of the models have hinted at maxes near western new England NYC with a secondary max in Eastern New England. could see some shadowing effects in the Connecticut River Valley but with a bomb like this everyone is still going to do well.

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  On 1/25/2015 at 1:34 PM, JC-CT said:

This winter was on a futility run a week ago. Two days ago, we were getting 3-6 tainted mush followed by watching another clipper whiff south.

Everybody just stfu with the whining.

Thanks.

Agreed! Two days ago, we were getting ready to count down to May! What a turnaround. Savor every moment.

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  On 1/25/2015 at 1:40 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Where could you see potential shaft zone?

 

I can't really say given the model differences.  If this tucks in close, then there may be a relative min spot in between the low level forcing out east and the deformation stuff out west. No tuckie, no suckie for everyone.

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  On 1/25/2015 at 12:08 PM, Clinch Leatherwood said:

I thought the 6z rgem looked better in that regard. If I had to forecast for mby it'd only be 4-6". History of events this strong isn't great nearest the water in the euro-gfs type development. However i am not at all sold the pieces come together as quickly as the models indicate. The last season or two the tucks always seem to come progressively later inside of about. 48 hours per-event and I just have a feeling that'll happen this time too.

I agree. We saw that w NEMO, which acted as a slight detriment to us. In this instance, we would avail of it.
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  On 1/25/2015 at 1:48 PM, CoastalWx said:

I can't really say given the model differences. If this tucks in close, then there may be a relative min spot in between the low level forcing out east and the deformation stuff out west. No tuckie, no suckie for everyone.

I fear that from my area to ORH, vut hopeful it tucks a bit east
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  On 1/25/2015 at 1:22 PM, heavy_wx said:

The 06z GFS has minimum omega values right within the dendritic growth zone. Lapse rates between 550 and 500 mb are around 7 deg/km so bands that develop should realize some very good vertical motion and therefore have excellent growth conditions for dendrites.

 

For Boston:

 

attachicon.gifScreenshot from 2015-01-25 08:15:05.png

 

Desturctive, dendrite-destroying winds for the ratio loss.

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ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WATCH FOR 12 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW. ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE TO

UPGRADE SOME OF THAT REGION TO A BLIZZARD WATCH/WARNING...BUT WAS

UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WOULD MIX DOWN ACROSS THAT REGION AND ITS

STILL A LATE 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT. WE ARE ALSO LEANING TOWARDS

THE WESTERN ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME LED THE CONSISTENT

ECMWF. IF THE STORM TRENDS EAST A BIT...WE MAY BE OVERDONE WITH OUR

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES SO SOMETHING FOR LATER

SHIFTS TO WATCH.

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  On 1/25/2015 at 1:31 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

He's right for folks down here..but that's besides his point. I don't like the tucking trend. probably means we get a dryslot or flip

The only model that would even come close to tainting you is the gfs. I had a bit of concern about that as well, but ultimately, I find it hard to believe taint makes it much further than the canal

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  On 1/25/2015 at 2:01 PM, Ginxy said:

me and 10 other posters and it wasn't just you, it's all good

Yea, I was catching up. People need to understand that stakes are high in an extreme event like this....there is going to be a bit more consternation over relative mins and maxes than there is in an ordinary storm. That being said, there should probably be a seperate thread for that.
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