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Storm Disco for Manitoba Mauler 01/26/27


Damage In Tolland

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  On 1/25/2015 at 2:13 AM, wxsniss said:

Server within 10 min up and already 50+ people on this thread

NAM thru 33hrs spot on with 18z

Also while server down:

18z GEFS and 12z Euro ensembles dead on benchmark or slightly southeast, that farther east blip on 12z EC / CMC is disappearing

You meant west blip right?

Staff two words ..... Redundant backups

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  On 1/24/2015 at 7:51 PM, wxsniss said:

CMC has that feature too:

 

attachicon.gifcmc_precip_mslp_east_14.png

 

With both Euro and CMC, multiple pieces of vorticity swinging around the trough, one piece gets out farther east:

 

attachicon.gifcmc_z500_uv_vort_east_14.png

 

Third note of caution, probably less likely, is a fujiwara effect swinging our main bombing low south and east?

 

I also wonder, in the positive column, if that stray energy farther east is preventing this from occluding sooner and further southwest, and ultimately yielding a better result for SNE?

 

Still doesn't take away from fact that there's incredible consensus in the 12z suite for explosive cyclogenesis.

 

 

  On 1/25/2015 at 2:28 AM, Clinch Leatherwood said:

You meant west blip right?

Staff two words ..... Redundant backups

 

East blip... see the 12z CMC images I posted earlier, and Tip posted the 12z EC images... there was a runaway piece of vorticity that swung around farther east and developed a low much further east, Tip discussed how it could steal some of the show

 

In any case, have not seen any sign of that on the ensembles or 18z suite

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