Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Subtle variations in the 18z NAM comparing to the 12z ... seemingly negligible up through 36 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 If only the SREFS were worth anything...anything at all, which they are not. But they are a crushing up here, lol. After crushing all of New England too...from BTV to the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 This one does not need to go west, It needs to gain more lat before it stalls to get more of the area in the CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I think we are almost locked in on a solution. A few more variances in track and intensity than it will lock into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Even the RPM has it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Can you imagine the ha-ha factor if this thing carved back SW so much that it ended up raining after all this ...? oh mean. wow. one word: apoplexy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:17 PM, dryslot said: This one does not need to go west, It needs to gain more lat before it stalls to get more of the area in the CCB This... even where it is on the EURO I'd do well up here if it was just like 100 miles further north. Too much more westward and its occluding on the mid-Atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 12z Euro is/was trending on twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:20 PM, jamesnichols89 said: I think we are almost locked in on a solution. A few more variances in track and intensity than it will lock into place. There's certainly time left for something funky. Remember this just showed up starting at 00z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:24 PM, powderfreak said: There's certainly time left for something funky. Remember this just showed up starting at 00z today. I know...right? lol There's still relatively a lot of time to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:24 PM, powderfreak said: There's certainly time left for something funky. Remember this just showed up starting at 00z today. lol, I don't think we have locked up anything yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 Something just tells me we aren't close to a final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:25 PM, dendrite said: I know...right? lol There's still relatively a lot of time to go. I think we are pretty much locking solutions in along a tight cluster. There may be some wobble, but the track is what is IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:26 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Something just tells me we aren't close to a final solution. King James is fretting liquid. Lots of time/shifting to go though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Amazing how every model went boom in 12 hrs, would love to know exactly what triggered that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:29 PM, MaineJayhawk said: King James is fretting liquid. Lots of time/shifting to go though You just get that uneasy feeling about this one.. Maybe it's nothing and it's feet. Tight clustering on the ens is good though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:30 PM, Ginxy said: Amazing how every model went boom in 12 hrs, would love to know exactly what triggered that I asked Will that question a couple pages back but no reply....i'm curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 nam is going to have another fun run it looks like pretty close to 12z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:31 PM, Damage In Tolland said: You just get that uneasy feeling about this one.. Maybe it's nothing and it's feet. Tight clustering on the ens is good though It is uneasy, my stomach is churning. I want to commit to an all time classic but there is too much time for something to go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:30 PM, Ginxy said: Amazing how every model went boom in 12 hrs, would love to know exactly what triggered that On 1/24/2015 at 8:31 PM, ruNNaWayIcEberG said: I asked Will that question a couple pages back but no reply....i'm curious. Better sampling of the wave moving onshore in BC is surely one of the culprits (it moved onshore for initialization of the 00z Euro last night). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 NAM looks almost identical to the 12z run at 54 comparing it to 12z at 60, remember 12z was absolutely insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:27 PM, Clinch Leatherwood said: I think we are pretty much locking solutions in along a tight cluster. There may be some wobble, but the track is what is IMO Maybe, but the timing of the energy can shift ever so slightly and you get a much earlier or later phase. In a situation like this, it'll make a big sensible weather difference due to the high stakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:34 PM, ruNNaWayIcEberG said: It is uneasy, my stomach is churning. I want to commit to an all time classic but there is too much time for something to go wrong. I've had diarreaha on and off thinking about it. Nam appears to be massive hit again thru 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:31 PM, Damage In Tolland said: You just get that uneasy feeling about this one.. Maybe it's nothing and it's feet. Tight clustering on the ens is good though Most of the monster storms have surprises within 12 hours of start time although Feb 2013 was an exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Of course, the NAM isn't exactly at its best at this lead time but I suppose it's a warm fuzzy feeling to see it nestled in agreement with everything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:30 PM, Ginxy said: Amazing how every model went boom in 12 hrs, would love to know exactly what triggered thatI will try to do one of those animated gifs later. We were close for. 48 hours, by yesterday it was essentially there....and then timing changed that final amount that triggers a major solution change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:35 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I've had diarreaha on and off thinking about it. Nam appears to be massive hit again thru 54 Milk, bread, and diapers....get em asap. nam will not disappoint, consensus builds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 nam actually looks a little better then 12z so far if thats even possible lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 NAM really starts bombing at hr 60, this will be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 On 1/24/2015 at 8:35 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Most of the monster storms have surprises within 12 hours of start time although Feb 2013 was an exception. And right up to go time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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