djr5001 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'll meet you in banter PSU lol. In all honesty I was expecting 2 to 3 and if I get that I'm happy. Not sure if we get there though. I think you will get at least 2-3"... could be a lot worse where it could be 32-33 and rain like some spots in central Indiana/Illinois right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hm. The GFS might send some NJ/NYC weenies to the bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hm. The GFS might send some NJ/NYC weenies to the bridge. Honestl, and this might be cruel, but I wish for every Nyc storm to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NWS Mt Holly has issued Weenie Suicide Watches after that GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Holy ****. Can we have that GFS run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think this storm is pretty exciting!! On Friday we was looking at a clipper that might even had been south of us. Now we are possibly looking at a historic storm. I realize it might not effect all of us, but it will be fun to watch it evolve. Now relax and enjoy....watch this unfold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm thoroughly confused. The 09z SREF maps from the e-wall page show a mean of around 0.4" of QPF for State College. However, the 09z SREF plumes from both both the NCEP page and the eyewall page give a mean of about 0.75" of QPF, instead. What's with the huge discrepancy? EDIT: This discrepancy isn't just limited to the 09z SREFs, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I just looked at the radar, the clipper seems even bigger then what it was this morning anyone else see this, or am I nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Noticed same thing mallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm thoroughly confused. The 09z SREF maps from the e-wall page show a mean of around 0.4" of QPF for State College. However, the 09z SREF plumes from both both the NCEP page and the eyewall page give a mean of about 0.75" of QPF, instead. What's with the huge discrepancy? EDIT: This discrepancy isn't just limited to the 09z SREFs, either. Wait, even an expert like you is confused? I give up then!GGEM following the GFS path apparently. This might go east enough the LSV/UNVgets the backend heavy rates while 95 gets the dryslot. Wouldn't that be the damnedest thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I just looked at the radar, the clipper seems even bigger then what it was this morning anyone else see this, or am I nutsNo, not nuts. It's like its tapping GOM moisture or something. Will not be shocked if I wake up tomorrow with 8". Will also not be shocked if only 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Question: what history does the CTP region have with Miller Bs? Brutal, I'd assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Question: what history does the CTP region have with Miller Bs? Brutal, I'd assume? well, I use to think we did well with Miller B, but got bitched at one time on the forum when I said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Wait, even an expert like you is confused? I give up then! GGEM following the GFS path apparently. This might go east enough the LSV/UNVgets the backend heavy rates while 95 gets the dryslot. Wouldn't that be the damnedest thing. And wouldn't be a bad thing either - would rather see UNV get hit than NYC for sure, even if I'm no longer out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm so confused they're say 2 or so so are we looking at 10 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm thoroughly confused. The 09z SREF maps from the e-wall page show a mean of around 0.4" of QPF for State College. However, the 09z SREF plumes from both both the NCEP page and the eyewall page give a mean of about 0.75" of QPF, instead. What's with the huge discrepancy? EDIT: This discrepancy isn't just limited to the 09z SREFs, either. So, Mallow, WPC actually says the 09z SREF is most realistic: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM EVOLVING INTO A NOR'EASTER MON/TUE ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~ PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE THERE REMAIN SOME SLIGHT EAST-WEST AND SLIGHT PROGRESSION ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH PLAY HAVOC WITH THE QPF/PRECIPITATION/WINTER WEATHER FORECAST. IN REVIEWING THE 00Z ECMWF, 12Z NAM, AND 12Z GFS, ALL THREE HAVE WHAT APPEAR TO BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYES CONTAMINATING THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF'S SLOWS DOWN THE OVERALL CYCLONE MORE THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM'S BULL'S EYES OVER THE GULF STREAM OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST APPEAR TO CAUSE AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN ITS 12Z SOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE GFS'S BULL'S EYE/QPF BOMB DRAGS ITS BOUNDARY LAYER WIND CIRCULATION ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS ON ITS 12Z RUN, MORE TO THE WEST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE DESPITE ITS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME WOBBLING OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM DUE TO AN INVADING SHORTWAVE ROUNDING ITS SOUTHWEST SIDE ON TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A LESS EVEN FORWARD PROGRESSION. THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS MIRRORS THE ENVELOPE OF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AMONGST THE GFS, NAM, ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND UKMET. THERE IS NO OVERARCHING TREND SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY TOWARDS A QUICKER OR SLOWER SOLUTION, THOUGH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD -- IN THE DIRECTION OF THE 12Z GFS. THE OCCASIONALLY SLOW/PLODDING 09Z SREF MEAN LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD, QUICKER THAN THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. SINCE NO SOLUTION CAN BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED WHEN USING THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD, 700 HPA HEIGHT FIELD, AND 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELD, FAVOR A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN/12Z GFS/12Z NAM, WHICH ROUGHLY RESEMBLES THE 09Z SREF MEAN AT 500 HPA AND THE SURFACE. FOR QPF AND WINTER WEATHER CHOICES, SEE OUR QPF AND WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSIONS AND GRAPHICS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 So, Mallow, WPC actually says the 09z SREF is most realistic: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd That's not exactly what they said, but the still begs the question. Is the 09z SREF mean showing 0.4" or 0.75" for State College (and likewise for other areas in central PA)? Such a big discrepancy between the maps and the plumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 I get the same inconsistency just for the record. E-wall 9z maps show about .75" for AVP area, but the plumes have 1.06". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I just looked at the radar, the clipper seems even bigger then what it was this morning anyone else see this, or am I nuts I just let the dog out and there is a light rain here (outdoor sensor reading 38 F) so some of the moisture is indeed east early though light and not snow right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It is like everyone doesn't know which way to go..75 for AVP at 12:1 rations would be 9 inches where the 1.06 would be 12.74 or so. looks good, but what I am wondering is why bgm hasn't pulled the triggers yet for watches or WWAs yet. PSU-- I live by the Hanover High school on the hill. I suspect my measuring was before the compaction happened. Rick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 It is like everyone doesn't know which way to go..75 for AVP at 12:1 rations would be 9 inches where the 1.06 would be 12.74 or so. looks good, but what I am wondering is why bgm hasn't pulled the triggers yet for watches or WWAs yet. PSU-- I live by the Hanover High school on the hill. I suspect my measuring was before the compaction happened. Rick What time did you measure? I did my measurements around 9am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I just let the dog out and there is a light rain here (outdoor sensor reading 38 F) so some of the moisture is indeed east early though light and not snow right now I was under the assumption it would be a later evening start, but looking at radar, we may have snow much earlier, maybe 6-7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Question: what history does the CTP region have with Miller Bs? Brutal, I'd assume? Not necessarily, it depends on the track and when/where the transfer to the coast occurs. The Feb 16-17, 2003 PDII storm and actually the Feb 5-6, 2010 storm are two examples where it worked out for the CTP region (or half of it in the case of Feb 2010). We're usually more vulnerable with northern stream clippers transferring to coastals if the clipper track is too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 That's odd. The 9z SREF mean from BUFKIT has 0.72" QPF FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Not necessarily, it depends on the track and when/where the transfer to the coast occurs. The Feb 16-17, 2003 PDII storm and actually the Feb 5-6, 2010 storm are two examples where it worked out for the CTP region (or half of it in the case of Feb 2010). We're usually more vulnerable with northern stream clippers transferring to coastals if the clipper track is too far north. I gpforgot that Feb 2010 storm was a Miller B. God that was a fun five days here!I am not envious of any of you mets okay/tomorrow. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 That's odd. The 9z SREF mean from BUFKIT has 0.72" QPF FWIW. After looking at the Hi-Res NMM/ARW, my best guess is that the SREF maps on the e-wall are shown at lower resolution and are missing a lot of the small-scale banding features. Since it's a long-duration event here, those bands add up quite a bit, hence the discrepancy. The plumes (and BUFKIT) would then be working from the higher-resolution runs. That's just a stab in the dark, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 After looking at the Hi-Res NMM/ARW, my best guess is that the SREF maps on the e-wall are shown at lower resolution and are missing a lot of the small-scale banding features. Since it's a long-duration event here, those bands add up quite a bit, hence the discrepancy. The plumes (and BUFKIT) would then be working from the higher-resolution runs. That's just a stab in the dark, though. Yeah, the plumes and BUFKIT I believe are based off of the bufr files that are written for a number of stations as the model runs. So those would be at the highest available resolution. However, it seems weird that both UNV and AVP would have the negative biases in QPF in the charts vs. the station output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 starting to snow here a bit in Altoona Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Euro text output copied from accuwx forum: Harrisburg: .5" Lebanon: .6" Reading: .8" Lancaster: .7" Baltimore: .4" DC: .4" Philly: 1.8" Allentown: 1.2" Scranton: .7" Trenton: 2.0" NYC: 2.4" Atlantic City: 1.3" State College: .5" Ratios between 12:1-15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 EURO holds serve and buries NYC. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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