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Central PA & the fringes - January 2015 Part II


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NWS seems to be playing it a little conservative in my opinion. Be interesting to see how things play out. I think that map will be changing a little. So far this season we have been over archiving. Lets see if the trend continues.

BIG THANK YOU to whoever got us back up and running!!! Did that crash deploy both airbags :-)

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NICE ADVISORY/WATCH COMBO FOR LSV

 

Statement as of 7:54 AM EST on January 25, 2015 ...

 

Winter Weather Advisory now in effect from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday... ... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning... The National Weather Service in State College has issued a Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. * Locations... the lower Susquehanna valley. * Hazard types... snow. * Accumulations... 3 to 5 inches tonight through midday Monday. Additional significant accumulation is possible from a secondary storm Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. * Timing... snow should arrive this evening and last through Monday. However... most of the accumulation will likely occur tonight. Additional significant snowfall will develop on the western edge of a strong secondary storm Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning... and several more inches of snow are possible in the watch area at that time. * Impacts... hazardous travel. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Hazardous winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Use caution if traveling. For the latest weather information... go to weather.Gov/statecollege or monitor NOAA Weather Radio. Report snow or ice accumulation to the National Weather Service State College by sending an email to [email protected]... posting to the NWS State College facebook Page... or tweet @nwsstatecollege with the hashtag c... T... p... W... x.

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I think the advisories are advisories and not warnings because of the amount of time in which this event is going to span. Most areas are under an advisory for 4-6, which, I believe under normal circumstances would warrant a warning due to the possibility of over 6 inches, no?

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I think the advisories are advisories and not warnings because of the amount of time in which this event is going to span. Most areas are under an advisory for 4-6, which, I believe under normal circumstances would warrant a warning due to the possibility of over 6 inches, no?

 

warning criteria for much of PA is county wide average of 6" over 12 hours or 8" over 24

 

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I wonder if the Susquehanna valley will receive more than the NWS is projecting for us. Is it possible?

 

It is possible but hard to say until system gets closer to developing off of coast.

 

There is more moisture worked into this system than the clipper we had on Wednesday and I believe ratios look to be better too (correct me if wrong)

 

To get above the projection we may have to rely on what falls on western side of strengthening system.  Far too often we see the dry slot screw job than the narrow deformation banding.  I would think the areas that may over perform for those in this forum would be more scattered than widespread.  4-6" I think is a pretty good storm total forecast right now.

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Unlike Friday I will have time to crank out one of my new-fangled snowmaps today, which will be including BOTH the clipper and eventual coast storm. I will be waiting on some 12z guidance to input some QPFs. I'm currently trying to scheme how I want ratios. Snow growth of this clipper should be great but warmish surface temps might keep accums from getting out of hand due to ratios. Might be why SREFs are pretty high overall. Right now working my map mostly on 12-14 ratios and 15 in the Laurel Highlands.

 

Speaking of temps, they crept back above freezing over night here. Sitting at 34F at the moment. I'm glad I have a pretty sheltered yard and surrounding woods. Took a snow depth measurement and it's only down to 8" from around 8.5-9" yesterday morning.

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warning criteria for much of PA is county wide average of 6" over 12 hours or 8" over 24

 

 

Yes. I was answering wmsptwx's question as to why Clinton and Lycoming havent received advisories and that usually a 4-6 would because the advisory is over a 25 hour period. Under usual circumstances, we would probably be looking at warnings (depending on county-wide averages) with a smaller time-frame of event.

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I'll meet you in banter PSU lol. In all honesty I was expecting 2 to 3 and if I get that I'm happy. Not sure if we get there though.

 

This region needs its own subforum for banter and complaining the way things go with these storms. :lol:

 

You'll probably see a little more (3-6") thanks to the clipper.

 

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SREFs are notoriously over amped on the western edge of Miller B's.

 

Usually you can weed out the typical over-amped runs by looking at the general consensus of the ensembles. I'm not completely against what that method shows for eastern areas ONCE you take out the obnoxious members. 

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