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Central PA & the fringes - January 2015 Part II


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Is the shift west due to the low from last night acting as a 50/50 low? Being in Harrisburg I hope this storm trends another 50 miles west. I know it has come westward a lot, but I'm not sure how much a chance this has to come further west.

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Take the ECM verbatim, we only need a little...50 miles if that...we'd be in 18"+ amounts.

 

(Posted by DT in the NYC forum)

  • post-9415-0-18629700-1422123709.png

What the hell? I need to start focusing on weather lol. I really haven't paid attention since yesterday morning. I'm thinking another 2-4, now this possibility ?

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I hate to be this guy, but I'm going to be this guy right now --

 

The Euro control was great, but looking at the GFS ensembles, there are only one or two members that show anything close to the Euro's coastal stack/retrograde. At this stage in the game, you would think that either a) the GFS members are all out to lunch and the Euro is correct or B) The Euro control is out of its mind, and believe your ensembles. I don't have access to the Euro ensembles, so I'll have to wait until they get posted elsewhere or someone summarizes them. I'm curious to see if the Euro ensembles agree or refute the control.

 

NOW that I've somewhat squashed your hopes and dreams, here's some good news snow lovers: We're right in the Euro's "wheelhouse" for being accurate. Also, when I came into work this morning, our in-house model (the RPM) showed about a foot of snow widespread across central PA - including MDT/LNS/THV and up north to UNV - from tomorrow evening through early Tuesday. The RPM bombed a low hugging the coast, just like the Euro is hinting at. The RPM does have a knack for sniffing these types of things out in the day + 2 range, but until I see more ensemble agreement, I have to side with us getting most of our precip from the clipper. 

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I hate to be this guy, but I'm going to be this guy right now --

 

The Euro control was great, but looking at the GFS ensembles, there are only one or two members that show anything close to the Euro's coastal stack/retrograde. At this stage in the game, you would think that either a) the GFS members are all out to lunch and the Euro is correct or B) The Euro control is out of its mind, and believe your ensembles. I don't have access to the Euro ensembles, so I'll have to wait until they get posted elsewhere or someone summarizes them. I'm curious to see if the Euro ensembles agree or refute the control.

 

NOW that I've somewhat squashed your hopes and dreams, here's some good news snow lovers: We're right in the Euro's "wheelhouse" for being accurate. Also, when I came into work this morning, our in-house model (the RPM) showed about a foot of snow widespread across central PA - including MDT/LNS/THV and up north to UNV - from tomorrow evening through early Tuesday. The RPM bombed a low hugging the coast, just like the Euro is hinting at. The RPM does have a knack for sniffing these types of things out in the day + 2 range, but until I see more ensemble agreement, I have to side with us getting most of our precip from the clipper.

Mets in the NE thread say Euro ensembles match, or surpass, original run fwiw.
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18z NAM is actually a nice snowfall for many in the forum. Doesn't have the ultra cutoff of the NW extension of the precip shield like the Euro and gives a steady snowfall for all. The LSV looks like the spot for now for the best accumulation, but CPA up to State College is fair game at this point. Would like to check Bufkit once the run is done to see how the mid-upper levels are doing as far as moisture and temps for best dedritic growth. Not bad. I'd rather have the NAM than the Euro at this point. Too much bust potential for Euro.

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