MAG5035 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Do you guys mind if I use some of your reports for my snowfall map I'm making for my morning shows? CTP's PNS statement is pretty thin (right now), and it helps me fill the gaps...thanks ahead of time! I just cleared for 6 hours at 4.8". Still snowing hard, it was all out 2-3" per hour stuff 10-15min ago when I was out shovelling. Gonna get some pics up here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Do you guys mind if I use some of your reports for my snowfall map I'm making for my morning shows? CTP's PNS statement is pretty thin (right now), and it helps me fill the gaps...thanks ahead of time! 3.5" for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 About to go to sleep here, but just measured 4.3" on the roof of my car. Was a bit more than I was estimating. Per radar, looks like we should pick up a bit more before all is said and done, and our total for the storm may approach 5". Definitely an overperformer in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I had 1" around 11 and switched over to sleet/rain and decided to take a nap. Woke up to another 2.5" on board for 3.5" total. This was mostly snow with a thin layer of sleet at bottom and a crust on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 100 miles west...not impossible. We were looking at snow showers from this one a couple days ago, now we could have a few inches. Radar though...not liking it as much as I did earlier. Worried this one might wrap up in a couple hours. How much do you have so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 How much do you have so far? No idea, can't get out to measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Agreed about Dr. S -- great guy. Biggest thing he taught me was to really dig deep for reasoning on forecasts. That forecasting class he teaches would always stress that you can absolutely have different numbers than MOS/grids/etc...but if you are different, you better make darn sure you have a reason why. The thing with borderline events is, that even with warm layers in the column, big fatty aggregates can REALLY drag the sub-freezing air into the warm layers...like how turning on your shower creates a little bit of a breeze. You're right, with the isentropic lift and LLJ lining up over the LSV, the rates were able to overcome boundary layer issues to produce plowable snows across much of the area. Classic. I literally just started this class this past week in my last semester of undergrad. You are right. He's big on getting you to think like a forecaster would at a NWS office or even in the private sector where probabilistic forecasting is used heavily. You can go off models and MOS grids all day long, but you will not be right to the point where you verify all that often. He and Eric always said the models are guidance, not gospel. Any regular Joe who can read a model can make a forecast from one and walk away. A real forecaster will use more intuition and prior experience from past events and basic climatology to make a more robust forecast that benefits the area of interest. This storm is an excellent example of why you never take models verbatim. The HRRR and RAP earlier today (or Yesterday really) had us basically being rain for a majority of the storm. A lot of people took that to heart and threw away any idea of snow. Well, you can see where that went. This just shows that human elements are still superior to our computer counter parts. They are guidance for a reason and a good forecaster with a great understanding of said guidance and meteorology will get a forecast right more times then not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 image.jpg image.jpg image.jpg image.jpg Nice pics Mag. Pretty good storm for some in the Commonwealth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 2.6" here. Way better than the last NWS map of <1 for me. Still snowing but radar doesnt look to hot for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 31/29 at Millersville with some freezing rain/sleet mix creating a nice crusty, sheen layer on top of the snow that fell. Looks pretty from my bedroom window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Nice pics mag. Did this thing come a little further NW or was the precip shield more expansive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Nice pics mag. Did this thing come a little further NW or was the precip shield more expansive? NW extent of the precip seemed to be as advertised, with Pittsburgh being right on the edge of it and not too much going on further NW of you. I think the intensity of the precip was what overachieved (that's the magic of a juiced up Gulf storm) and snow growth was very efficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Heading to bed for some sleep. Another inch has fallen with some steady light snow continuing. Pretty much at warning criteria with 5.8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 NW extent of the precip seemed to be as advertised, with Pittsburgh being right on the edge of it and not too much going on further NW of you. I think the intensity of the precip was what overachieved (that's the magic of a juiced up Gulf storm) and snow growth was very efficient. Ok thanks...Hope we can squeeze the clipper in as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 nearing 5 inches here in wb. nws pushed up our totals to 4-8 . still coming down at a heavy clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Cleared the board at 5 and still at 4.5". Whatever happened while I slept didn't add to the accumulation. Not much happening at the moment. This event goes down as a big win in my book. Rates saved the day for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Woke up to 4" of snow this morning. Currently some flurries....good storm!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 Wow we must have lucked out big overnight...it's definitely mounting out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks like 4.6" will about do it here in Bellefonte. Nice event, especially considering where this was modeled a few days ago. Solidified our snow cover for next week's cold regardless of what the clipper does. EDIT: Speaking of the clipper...just took a look at the 06z GFS. Looks significantly better for most of us, >0.25" for all of true Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I estimate roughly 5" of accumulation here with about 6.5" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Picked up another 0.1" this morn for an event total of 3.6". The liquid equiv was 0.64". Congrats to everyone who cashed in on this event. Seems about everyone ended up with what they expected with a few surprises up north toward 2001wx. I'm very happy with this event as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks like the 5.8" i measured before I went to bed ended up being it as there was no new snow and it compacted a bit with temps being up around freezing. Gorgeous outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ok....just got up (went to bed around 2:45). I haven't measured yet, but when I went to bed I had a total of only 2.4". Eyeballing, I'd say another inch tops, or around 3.5". I think compaction played a bigger role in keeping my total down. For me this storm underperformed. NWS had me in 6-8", it seemed pretty likely I'd get around 6. Once again, points north, west, and east did better. Not sure about south, although I thought I read a report in York county of 5". Oh well...on to the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 1.5 inches here then a lot of zr and pl rn last night after a sleet mix. 32.5 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 I'm going to call this one done - average of some measurements gives me about 5.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Atop id measurements tell me around 3.5". Buddy in Linglestown has 4", buddy in Camp Hill says 3.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 About 4.4 here. Good storm, now maybe south guys who mixed can cash in on the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Eyeballing between 3" and 4" here...I call this a win.Went to bed with .5" on the ground and sleet falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 psu, I had just under 6... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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