MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The northward trend better stop or we'll all be raining come Monday morning... I think if this storm ends up tracking thru PA in some fashion the folks that change over would probably be worrying about sleet/zr over plain rain.. or perhaps even just the dry slot. The flat track would prevent a strong drive of warm air into the state outside of the vulnerable SW PA region and perhaps right on the PA/MD border. I don't really think there's a lot of room for this to go much further north. This system isn't going to amplify enough to drive into the cold air and established snowpack so I suspect that the surface low will run along the baroclinic boundary that should be just to the south of us. In the grand scheme of things the models aren't really that far off, but the NAM is the model that's notably to the north out of the GFS/EURO/NAM comparison, with the GFS in the middle and the Euro just a hair south and about 4mb weaker. Euro ensemble mean largely supported Euro op track and thermally (Euro seems solidly colder in PA vs the GFS/NAM). If the low went through PA I think everyone would still see solid front end snow.. but with the best forcing and precip usually north of the low, we would probably get slotted and spotty precip anyways when the low passed overhead regardless of ptype...hypothetically. I'm still pretty firm attm with thinking the track will ultimately run just under the mason-dixon though. Just my gut feeling given the setup.. hope I'm right. The models could always end up dialing back slightly towards go time also... which is what just happened at the beginning of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The way dew point temps look going into Sunday we should be similar to last Friday where wet bulb and we stay snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I think if this storm ends up tracking thru PA in some fashion the folks that change over would probably be worrying about sleet/zr over plain rain.. or perhaps even just the dry slot. The flat track would prevent a strong drive of warm air into the state outside of the vulnerable SW PA region and perhaps right on the PA/MD border. I don't really think there's a lot of room for this to go much further north. This system isn't going to amplify enough to drive into the cold air and established snowpack so I suspect that the surface low will run along the baroclinic boundary that should be just to the south of us. In the grand scheme of things the models aren't really that far off, but the NAM is the model that's notably to the north out of the GFS/EURO/NAM comparison, with the GFS in the middle and the Euro just a hair south and about 4mb weaker. Euro ensemble mean largely supported Euro op track and thermally (Euro seems solidly colder in PA vs the GFS/NAM). If the low went through PA I think everyone would still see solid front end snow.. but with the best forcing and precip usually north of the low, we would probably get slotted and spotty precip anyways when the low passed overhead regardless of ptype...hypothetically. I'm still pretty firm attm with thinking the track will ultimately run just under the mason-dixon though. Just my gut feeling given the setup.. hope I'm right. The models could always end up dialing back slightly towards go time also... which is what just happened at the beginning of the week. Thanks mag...Hope your right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Take it from someone's who lived here for most of his ~23 years of life, we're far from safe...also read what red taggers are posting elsewhere. The 18z GFS wasn't even remotely close to us mixing tho.... It is better for us for a GFS-like scenario to verify because we get the better dynamics. We don't need Philly to be all snow for us to get a good snow storm... I'm not worried, especially since the south tick recorrection is historically bound to happen anyway within the next 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The 18z GFS wasn't even remotely close to us mixing tho.... It is better for us for a GFS-like scenario to verify because we get the better dynamics. We don't need Philly to be all snow for us to get a good snow storm... I'm not worried, especially since the south tick recorrection is historically bound to happen anyway within the next 48 hours CTP mentions this in their afternoon discussion. A good read for anyone who hasn't read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Thanks for your insight, Mag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We don't need Philly to be all snow for us to get a good snow storm... This is true. I remember a storm back in the early 80's where 90% of the storm was rain in Philly and we got a good dumping in Allentown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I think if this storm ends up tracking thru PA in some fashion the folks that change over would probably be worrying about sleet/zr over plain rain.. or perhaps even just the dry slot. The flat track would prevent a strong drive of warm air into the state outside of the vulnerable SW PA region and perhaps right on the PA/MD border. I don't really think there's a lot of room for this to go much further north. This system isn't going to amplify enough to drive into the cold air and established snowpack so I suspect that the surface low will run along the baroclinic boundary that should be just to the south of us. In the grand scheme of things the models aren't really that far off, but the NAM is the model that's notably to the north out of the GFS/EURO/NAM comparison, with the GFS in the middle and the Euro just a hair south and about 4mb weaker. Euro ensemble mean largely supported Euro op track and thermally (Euro seems solidly colder in PA vs the GFS/NAM). If the low went through PA I think everyone would still see solid front end snow.. but with the best forcing and precip usually north of the low, we would probably get slotted and spotty precip anyways when the low passed overhead regardless of ptype...hypothetically. I'm still pretty firm attm with thinking the track will ultimately run just under the mason-dixon though. Just my gut feeling given the setup.. hope I'm right. The models could always end up dialing back slightly towards go time also... which is what just happened at the beginning of the week. thanks Mag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Thanks Mag...wouldn't mind a 20-25 mile bump south just to be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 FWIW, the 50 Euro ensembles show 100% snow at State College. Looking at Harrisburg, the mean qpf is 0.75", and mean snow qpf is 0.70". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Starting to get into the range for the RGEM to start having a take on this storm as well. Here's the edge of the RGEM range at 54h vs NAM 54h. Note that RGEM is solidly south of the NAM. (and the 18z GFS has it's low placed pretty much where the NAM has it at that particular hour and same strength) RGEM NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Rgem is further south, stronger high to the north...but somehow manages to look warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The high off the SE coast and the lack of a transfer of energy to a coastal low (a la Miller B )is not helping us. This results in a prolonged southeast wind for those east of I-81 which just eats away at the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It seems like once we see a consistent north trend develop, it never really abates. It’s not like models are jumping around, they are just ticking north with each suite. Hopefully I’m wrong but I think the southern crew might be disappointed with this one. Hopefully you true central people can cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Even up here I'm slightly uncomfortable about the north trend. I'd take the 12z Euro/gfs and run if I could. Watch out for the 850mb low track closely. We've seen too many times a nice thermal profile modeled at this stage even when on or south of the 850mb low, and every time the warm air at 750-800mb was undermodeled and it turned into a pellet-fest, if not freezing rain. The 18z NAM has the 850 low making it up to almost the NY/PA border, and the GFS has it roughly on I-80. The 12z GGEM and GFS have it along maybe Rt. 22. From there south, I think sleet and freezing rain can be a significant part of the storm, and if the 18z models are right, anywhere I-80 and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It seems like once we see a consistent north trend develop, it never really abates. It’s not like models are jumping around, they are just ticking north with each suite. Hopefully I’m wrong but I think the southern crew might be disappointed with this one. Hopefully you true central people can cash in. every model has given us a good bit of snow to start I am not sure why the hopeless comments. It will be nice when we see good 0z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Watch out for the 850mb low track closely. We've seen too many times a nice thermal profile modeled at this stage even when on or south of the 850mb low, and every time the warm air at 750-800mb was undermodeled and it turned into a pellet-fest, if not freezing rain. The 18z NAM has the 850 low making it up to almost the NY/PA border, and the GFS has it roughly on I-80. The 12z GGEM and GFS have it along maybe Rt. 22. From there south, I think sleet and freezing rain can be a significant part of the storm, and if the 18z models are right, anywhere I-80 and south. Thank you for the heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 00z NAM is very similar to the 18z run. A touch warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM held it ground since 12z today implies mixing in LSV and north potentially let's see what the other models trend towards they were all favorable for a PA snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 00z NAM is very similar to the 18z run. A touch warmer. Yea agreed, very similar to 18z and maybe slightly warmer at 850 by the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 We need the GFS to tick south or, at the very worst, hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 850 is looking a little warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM held it ground since 12z today implies mixing in LSV and north potentially let's see what the other models trend towards they were all favorable for a PA snowstorm Looking at the 850 map, even my location goes above freezing at hr60. South and east of I-80 and I-81 mix/change on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Station: 40.80,-75.96 Latitude: 40.80 Longitude: -75.96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 -1 SFC 958 341 -0.3 -0.9 96 0.5 -0.6 87 6 276.2 276.8 274.8 286.4 3.74 2 950 408 -1.1 -1.5 97 0.4 -1.3 89 9 276.0 276.6 274.5 285.9 3.60 3 900 839 -1.0 -1.2 98 0.2 -1.1 185 16 280.5 281.1 277.3 291.3 3.88 4 850 1297 1.0 0.8 98 0.3 0.9 233 36 287.2 288.0 281.7 300.7 4.76 5 800 1783 -1.4 -1.6 98 0.3 -1.4 245 32 289.7 290.5 282.2 302.0 4.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Weird dryslot keeps showing up on NAM lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On the NAM from hour 60 to 63 the 0c line crashes again seems to me a lot of CAD in play I am reading other forums this is a lake cutter rain in NY BOS not even close this isnt a bad run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Question after the snow or storm, will it get windy? I'm talking 20-30 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Question after the snow or storm, will it get windy? I'm talking 20-30 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On the NAM from hour 60 to 63 the 0c line crashes again seems to me a lot of CAD in play I am reading other forums this is a lake cutter rain in NY BOS not even close this isnt a bad run @ 63 850 temp does really drop off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Can't we have ONE FREAKING STORM where we don't have to worry about fringing, mix lines, or any of that bullshyte? I was thinking the same thing...when those maps from earlier today were showing a statewide plastering, I thought to myself "this is too good to be true." And, unfortunately...it looks like it was. You know, there's a reason why big, double digit snows are a once in a decade event down this way. We, and I'm not including you because I know how painful it was up that way in previous years, but down here (and especially in NYC) were utterly spoiled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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