Itunis Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 a little but almost within 48 hours of start for there... wonder if state college will do same in a few hours I feel like they may wait till the overnight shift to issue anything...especially for the far southern tier where there's a bit more uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GEFS supports the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GEFS supports the OP. Man Boston gets hammered again, they will have 4 feet on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off CONSENSUS BUILDING FOR A MODERATE SNOWSTORM TO AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL PA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TOUCHED UP QPF AND SNOWFALL GRIDS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME...INDICATING AT LEAST ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL. CONSENSUS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE IS FOR CENTRAL PA TO BE IN THE SWEET SPOT...AND IT APPEARS THAT WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL IS AN INCREASING THREAT GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS. STILL TOO EARLY FOR HEADLINE ISSUANCES FOR FOR A 5TH PERIOD AND BEYOND EVENT. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE AREA ON WED. HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SNOW. MORE COLD AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Man Boston gets hammered again, they will have 4 feet on the ground. and didn't they get like 6" yesterday or today too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 a little but almost within 48 hours of start for there... wonder if state college will do same in a few hours I'm pretty sure that the criteria timing-wise for issuance for a WSW is a lead time of no greater than 36 hours from the start of the event. If that is the case WSW's go up overnight with the morning package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 and didn't they get like 6" yesterday or today too? Yeah I think they did. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm pretty sure that the criteria timing-wise for issuance for a WSW is a lead time of no greater than 36 hours from the start of the event. If that is the case WSW's go up overnight with the morning package. I've seen watches go up around 48hrs before the event in the case of a pretty high confidence event, but I do think CTP will want to see another round of consistent model runs tonight before pulling the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I saw over on MA they were posting EuroWX maps. I'll post them once the run comes out. Only out to 12 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm pretty sure that the criteria timing-wise for issuance for a WSW is a lead time of no greater than 36 hours from the start of the event. If that is the case WSW's go up overnight with the morning package. their definition says "Possibility that Warning Criteria may be met at longer ranges (24 to 48 hrs out)." but after mentioning earlier in the week about how communication and coordination between offices needs to improve I thought there could be a chance. From what pawatch posted it does not look to be the case. I wouldnt be surprised to see an exception to the 48 hour thing if the offices are thinking to get message out this afternoon since it is less likely people will be watching news/following weather over a weekend and especially on Sunday this weekend. PBZ going early has caused a gap in northern ohio though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Actually I think I can only post snow maps since this is a pay site. Out to 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Definitely a bit North as compared to 0z at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 through h60 12z Euro looking very similar to GFS... which I have no idea if is a good thing or bad thing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Per MA play by play it's fairly similar to the 0z run. Good for most of CPA and certainly good to see consistency so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Fantastic Euro run, unloads squarely on everyone in PA. 850 0 line flirts around extreme SW PA at 66 and gets just to the Mason-Dixon towards Philly hour 72. -4ºC 850 line running roughly the turnpike, -8ºC 850 running roughly I-80 at 66 and 72 during the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Definitely a bit North as compared to 0z at 48 looks fairly similar to 0z to me except a little wetter... low is slightly stronger by 12z monday morning so of course it pushes 0C 850mb line slightly further north. Not nearly as strong with system as UKMET that tracks through PA... almost a 10 mb difference between UKMET and Euro/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 through h60 12z Euro looking very similar to GFS... which I have no idea if is a good thing or bad thing lol Extrapolating (I know, bad thing to do) beyond the h60 map posted in the MA forum, it looks like the heaviest snow is headed straight for central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Trying to post snowmaps and can't sorry don't how they do it. But as others said, and Mag it is really a good run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 For those who may not be able to see maps or don't want to wade through this: GFS, GGEM, ECM say we're all good to go. NAM is borderline for quite a few. UKMET is ugly. And oh yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Pretty much a foot of snow for most C PA Maryland/PA border running around 9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Trying to post snowmaps and can't sorry don't how they do it. But as others said, and Mag it is really a good run! just click on pic and copy address. click on the pic icon in the editor and paste link...done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 just click on pic and copy address. click on the pic icon in the editor and paste link...done. Got to love how that pink is like two fingers ready to smash down on the WB/Scranton area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Got to love how that pink is like two fingers ready to smash down on the WB/Scranton area. I'd have good naturedly kidded you and said that was a developing snow hole over the Wyoming Valley, but Blizz posted the h90 map so it wouldn't have worked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Holy **** haha. Also it looks like NYC might get it's 24-36" after all... just needing two storms to get it instead of one lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Thanks! That is what I tried to do. :-) Appreciate posting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Got to love how that pink is like two fingers ready to smash down on the WB/Scranton area. or develop a hole right over wmsptwx's head lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well, the 12z suite outside of UKMET great for the whole forum. Everyone getting their shovels ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wow we finally see a Pa crush job. Now we just need it to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That would be one of the most latitudinally-oriented snow maps I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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