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Central PA & the fringes - January 2015 Part II


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Just got home from work. Im measuring 3" right on the button.  The roads are pretty tricky. Not a plow in sight here in Altoona. The snow seems to be coming down a little harder now. It almost felt like a little mix at times on the windshield. Its reallly beatiful out. So calm and peaceful.

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Moderate snow continues in Marysville.

We are well on our way to the best snow

Event of this season thus far here in the Harrisburg area.

How is the Clipper looking for Sunday night Monday

For the Lower Susq. Valley?

ECM blew it up but this region, as of now, is in the screw zone - we all largely miss the initial clipper and when it blows into a big storm. 95 east sees significant accums. but we get zilch.

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ECM blew it up but this region, as of now, is in the screw zone - we all largely miss the initial clipper and when it blows into a big storm. 95 east sees significant accums. but we get zilch.

 

It does sneak a frame of .1" - .25" into the Lower Sus Valley up to about Harrisburg but yea storms still south and the snow runs the southern tier til it kinda dies and the low redevelops well offshore. Guess we'll see if we can reel that one back in at the last minute like we did with this current storm.  

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I was told it is now raining in york... anyone still up able to confirm?

 

Judging by the Hydrometeor classification and correlation coefficient, the south regions of York might be having some rain/sleet mix while the north side is snow/sleet or all snow once you are further north in the county. I hope that helps.

 

Edit: It does look like the rain line is trying to recede back to the southwest, so they should be changing back over soon.  

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It does sneak a frame of .1" - .25" into the Lower Sus Valley up to about Harrisburg but yea storms still south and the snow runs the southern tier til it kinda dies and the low redevelops well offshore. Guess we'll see if we can reel that one back in at the last minute like we did with this current storm.  

100 miles west...not impossible. We were looking at snow showers from this one a couple days ago, now we could have a few inches.

 

Radar though...not liking it as much as I did earlier. Worried this one might wrap up in a couple hours.

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Hey Allweather. I see you poking in to the forum. Looks like your map you issued earlier is going to verify in many areas. Awesome job. Over 3" here in Millersville. I'll get the final tally tomorrow from Dr. Sikora over in Millersville who takes the measurements for the area. Nice surprise.

 

Thanks brother. If I had to do it over again, I'd account for compaction, as actual snowfall was on the low-end of my ranges. Very close call and a marginal "slop" storm at best SE of I-81. I measured 3" right on the nose here in Lancaster, but since we've flipped to ZR/RA, that has compacted to 2.5". Tell Dr. S I said hello...one of the best meteorology professors out there!

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Thanks brother. If I had to do it over again, I'd account for compaction, as actual snowfall was on the low-end of my ranges. Very close call and a marginal "slop" storm at best SE of I-81. I measured 3" right on the nose here in Lancaster, but since we've flipped to ZR/RA, that has compacted to 2.5". Tell Dr. S I said hello...one of the best meteorology professors out there!

 

No problem. He truly is a great professor and just overall human being. You have to get used to his brand of humor or else he'll come off as annoying to some. I enjoy it and I've learned a lot from both he and Eric Horst. Great forecaster duo there. 

 

Amazingly the area looked like we got some sleet, but we still managed to have mostly snow. One of the benefactors was the precip intensity. There was a steady shield that moved from the SW of the region right into Lancaster county. The intensity helped shield off the warm nose aloft at times and cause the sleet to switch over to a heavy wet snow. I think the area of best lift was nearby and that really helped many get some of the good totals in the LSV. I've heard 5" in parts of York county and I know after my snow drive this evening that areas along 283 including Salunga and Elizabethtown really were getting the business. Roads were awful and snow packed. They easily have to be pushing near 5" by now, so your map should easily verify for most of the region. Can't be perfect in a setup like this, but you can sure try. 

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Do you guys mind if I use some of your reports for my snowfall map I'm making for my morning shows? CTP's PNS statement is pretty thin (right now), and it helps me fill the gaps...thanks ahead of time!

Yeah no problem at all, I have a picture on the board to verify but not sure how to upload but it's strinestown which is York off 83 mile marker 28. Final was 5 even then changed over. Any chance we get any more snow out of this.

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No problem. He truly is a great professor and just overall human being. You have to get used to his brand of humor or else he'll come off as annoying to some. I enjoy it and I've learned a lot from both he and Eric Horst. Great forecaster duo there. 

 

Amazingly the area looked like we got some sleet, but we still managed to have mostly snow. One of the benefactors was the precip intensity. There was a steady shield that moved from the SW of the region right into Lancaster county. The intensity helped shield off the warm nose aloft at times and cause the sleet to switch over to a heavy wet snow. I think the area of best lift was nearby and that really helped many get some of the good totals in the LSV. I've heard 5" in parts of York county and I know after my snow drive this evening that areas along 283 including Salunga and Elizabethtown really were getting the business. Roads were awful and snow packed. They easily have to be pushing near 5" by now, so your map should easily verify for most of the region. Can't be perfect in a setup like this, but you can sure try. 

Agreed about Dr. S -- great guy. Biggest thing he taught me was to really dig deep for reasoning on forecasts. That forecasting class he teaches would always stress that you can absolutely have different numbers than MOS/grids/etc...but if you are different, you better make darn sure you have a reason why. 

 

The thing with borderline events is, that even with warm layers in the column, big fatty aggregates can REALLY drag the sub-freezing air into the warm layers...like how turning on your shower creates a little bit of a breeze. You're right, with the isentropic lift and LLJ lining up over the LSV, the rates were able to overcome boundary layer issues to produce plowable snows across much of the area. Classic.

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Yeah no problem at all, I have a picture on the board to verify but not sure how to upload but it's strinestown which is York off 83 mile marker 28. Final was 5 even then changed over. Any chance we get any more snow out of this.

 

You can send me a photo through e-mail if you'd like: [email protected]

 

Or post it on our work weather team Facebook page - whichever is easiest: https://www.facebook.com/StormTeamWGAL

 

Areas southeast of I-81 could see a little more snow on the strung-out backside of this, but I would imagine most of the accumulations are done with at this point for areas that flipped to a rain mix.

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No problem. He truly is a great professor and just overall human being. You have to get used to his brand of humor or else he'll come off as annoying to some. I enjoy it and I've learned a lot from both he and Eric Horst. Great forecaster duo there. 

 

Amazingly the area looked like we got some sleet, but we still managed to have mostly snow. One of the benefactors was the precip intensity. There was a steady shield that moved from the SW of the region right into Lancaster county. The intensity helped shield off the warm nose aloft at times and cause the sleet to switch over to a heavy wet snow. I think the area of best lift was nearby and that really helped many get some of the good totals in the LSV. I've heard 5" in parts of York county and I know after my snow drive this evening that areas along 283 including Salunga and Elizabethtown really were getting the business. Roads were awful and snow packed. They easily have to be pushing near 5" by now, so your map should easily verify for most of the region. Can't be perfect in a setup like this, but you can sure try. 

Having pwat values above .7 around here really helped this!!

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