NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 If you ran the NAM (Yeah, I know...) beyond 84 hours, everyone here would probably get 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If you ran the NAM (Yeah, I know...) beyond 84 hours, everyone here would probably get 6"+. You beat me to it. The 0z NAM looks like a big hit for PA, but it is the NAM at 84 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks like we've had a bit over an inch here so far. Now for the gfs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 0z GFS appars to be a PA special, nearly the entire state getting 6"+. It shifted north from previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not as cold as run, PHL might flip to rain for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 A little close for comfort down here! Needs some i83blizz mojo to make sure we are okay n of the mason Dixon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I haven't looked at the MA forum but my disappointment sense in tingling. I think you'll see a waver over the next 3 runs of the models until we start grasping something here. Until the northern s/w gets sampled better, there will be shifts north and south. I'm thinking a track along Rt 50 in MD seems to be a good point. That would be great for all of PA except the extreme northern tier, and even then they'd still have good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I haven't looked at the MA forum but my disappointment sense in tingling. I think you'll see a waver over the next 3 runs of the models until we start grasping something here. Until the northern s/w gets sampled better, there will be shifts north and south. I'm thinking a track along Rt 50 in MD seems to be a good point. That would be great for all of PA except the extreme northern tier, and even then they'd still have good snow.I think the term to describe our souther friends is distraught. They all were headed out to the WV gorge after this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Have to wait and see what the euro does. Plenty of time to bounce north and south. 72 hours out is an eternity especially this year with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Here's my final total from the clipper: 1.0" accumulation with 0.07" liquid for a ratio of just shy of 15:1. Nice little quick event with by far the heaviest rates of this season. The landscape is beginning to really take on a wintry appearance with the snow depth slowly increasing. I'd say there's between 3 and 4 inches on average on the ground, all now snow-covered. Add another 9" from the Super Bowl storm and we've got nearly a foot base. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Spoiler alert: This ends waaaaaaaay north of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 ECM is a thing of beauty. 12+ for many, a little less in the southern parts. Let's hope we can give our dethroned king his crown back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What can go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 When all the models are where they are right now showing a foot of snow 4 days out, it usually ends up being 3 inches then slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Can we lock this in? It looks like the perfect low track for most of us would be almost directly over Washington, DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Another inch overnight brings clipper total to 2.5" now here. Wow, I guess the 0z suite put the above I-80 fringe zone idea to bed for now. The overall bump north leaves some concern for far southern tier mixing to come into play (esp in the Sus Valley). 6z NAM and GFS take the track right to the PA/MD border and would likely set the rain/snow line on or near that border. Actually in reality it probably would be a snow/mix or snow/ice line cuz with the pressing cold its likely there's going to be a zone that gets an ice event. Any rate this storm looks like it could be the best shot in awhile to deliver the rare PA special. There's not really any established downstream blocking to press this thing way south (though NAO has been forecast to briefly drop to slightly negative) and the storm amps enough (but not too much) to place the zone right thru PA. As long as models don't revert more amped west or thru PA solution they had a couple days ago I think most of us will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Actually looks like a decent agreement between guidance for the potential storm on Sunday/Monday. The 06z GFS has central PA in the right entrance region of a jet streak (at 300 mb) in northern New England. There is also a hint of a wind maximum over the southeast. This is a projection of the jet streak associated with the subtropical jet at 200 mb. These features should enhance lifting over the region as they induce ageostrophic secondary circulations. The level of greatest frontogenesis (where rising motion occurs on the warm side of the thermal gradient) in central PA is around 850 mb. There may also be some lift from associated with the southern jet streak at a higher level, due to the circulation sloping poleward with height. If these forecasts pan out, there could be some solid banding somewhere in central/northern PA. Also, given the track of the 850 mb low seems to roughly follow the orientation of the northern jet streak, this banding may remain fairly stationary (continuously regenerates over the same areas), increasing QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 2.25" overnight bringing my total for clipper to 3.4" not bad Love the way the sunday storm looks.It makes me nervous though. Fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yea def nervous time feels like it can only shift the wrong way from here. What's the biggest upside from this event probably 5 to 8 ish? If so sign me up!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yea def nervous time feels like it can only shift the wrong way from here. What's the biggest upside from this event probably 5 to 8 ish? If so sign me up!!! Knowing how things play out for us central folks, I'm cautiously optimistic at this point. As for the current event, the snow this morning finally pushed me over an inch. I measured 1.1 when I put the dog out about 15 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Knowing how things play out for us central folks, I'm cautiously optimistic at this point. As for the current event, the snow this morning finally pushed me over an inch. I measured 1.1 when I put the dog out about 15 minutes ago. looked like a full out flizzard this am, wasn't expecting that when i let the dogs out. looking ahead, i guess my 2 concerns, as others have said, those of us in the lower counties switch over for a period or this thing moves so far north with get fringed. Maybe this is a dumb question, but where does the warm air come from? It looks like it's in the teens here and then warms up as the precip arrives, then we go to the brutal cold. maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Anyone who follows Joe Lundberg's daily blog saw that yesterday he said this baby was coming north. There was so much talk about suppression, and then I read him talking about it coming NORTH. Still some time left, but it sure looks like he might have nailed it. Again. It's a shame that Accu Weather has such a bad rap (though deservedly so at least in part) because Joe is really, really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Had a nice rogue band drop in from the north earlier this morning and drop a half inch of pure fluff rather quickly. Brings the storm total to 2.6", another nice little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 but where does the warm air come from? It looks like it's in the teens here and then warms up as the precip arrives, then we go to the brutal cold. maybe I'm not a met, so Mag and some others may have better answers, but I suppose if the low comes north enough, it'll bring warm air with it, especially near and below the actual low center. As you know, during the winter, if we get a cutter, we are on the southeast side of the low and as such we get a slop to rain event. Thats my "weather simpleton" idea, anyway. As for today, if it keeps snowing at the rate it is right now, I may end up close to 2" from the event. Don't have time to measure as I have to head off to Reading for a physical. I'll check it when I get home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarks green snow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nice heavy band for the past two hours. Nice 3 inch dump and looking good for Monday!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm not a met, so Mag and some others may have better answers, but I suppose if the low comes north enough, it'll bring warm air with it, especially near and below the actual low center. As you know, during the winter, if we get a cutter, we are on the southeast side of the low and as such we get a slop to rain event. Thats my "weather simpleton" idea, anyway. As for today, if it keeps snowing at the rate it is right now, I may end up close to 2" from the event. Don't have time to measure as I have to head off to Reading for a physical. I'll check it when I get home. Correct. The more amped up runs that track the low just south of PA try to bring just enough warm air north for mixing. If we get a good thump of overrunning it could very well end up like friday where rates were so heavy it kept the column cold enough to stay snow until the very end. From the 0z runs it looks to me like the UKMET is furthest north with the track (not good for southern PA) while the Canadian stays way south (mid atlantic special) with GFS/Euro/GGEM/NAM in the middle. Canadian never brings the low north of alabama/georgia/north carolina which is not even close to any of the other models and what they are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 with the low tracking so close to the M/D line, the southern tier has mixing potential due to southerly flow prior to the passage of the low. I'd think once by we'd flip back, but qpf totals would be tainted by sleet/ZR. Reading in some other forums, that the pros think a southern tick is still possible. Having a decent arctic airmass close by would lend my weenie eyes to think this has some merit. thats not a wishcast, that's just physics. I wish we had a stable..not transient 50/50 in place as i'd think it would help to keep this bad boy from lifting. Despite the fine detals WMSPTWX....breath....relax. You have the best seat in the house for this one and in my view, a decent amount of wiggle room to see 6+ easy. Even you Voyager. You guys wanna worry.....come to my house... anxiously awaiting the 12z's....I think. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Good Morning I wish last nights run was only 12hrs away instead of 3 days out. Seem the Euro and GFS are pretty much in agreement. Just wondering is the storm up in Maine affecting model runs at all? Today the vortex will come ashore and hopefully models will hold fairly steady. Didn't get out to measure last nights snow yet but it looks around an 1". "Coffee first" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Correct. The more amped up runs that track the low just south of PA try to bring just enough warm air north for mixing. If we get a good thump of overrunning it could very well end up like friday where rates were so heavy it kept the column cold enough to stay snow until the very end. From the 0z runs it looks to me like the UKMET is furthest north with the track (not good for southern PA) while the Canadian stays way south (mid atlantic special) with GFS/Euro/GGEM/NAM in the middle. Canadian never brings the low north of alabama/georgia/north carolina which is not even close to any of the other models and what they are showing. seeing a bunch of negatives next week, looking chilly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Lol I'm not worked up over it, I agree it has a better chance of ending up South, hopefully just not like the events of last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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