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Central PA & the fringes - January 2015 Part II


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I'm not sure how I feel being in a good spot this far out. When does the sampling hit the west coast?

Just wondering how much tilt were going to get with this storm....Stay tuned

 

The vortmax reaches the west coast tomorrow night. I agree with you that model changes could still be big 'til that time.

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Well...judging by the latest radar, it's looking like this clipper storm is going to last about 2 hours, tops.  Western edge already approaching Cumberland/Franklin border.  As I speak it is the heaviest it's been with decent flakes.  I've got 0.10" with maybe another couple of tenths to go.  NWS had this thing going until midnight.  What gives??

 

PS>>I'm wet-bulbing quite nicely having dropped from 30 to 26.6.  DP currently 22.9.

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Well, I guess I spoke too soon.  Like the others have said it's the heaviest rates of the season with greater than inch per hour snowfall.  Just measured 0.7" so perhaps will make it to 1.0".  It's just starting to lighten up a bit now as the radar shows the end of the echoes have reached me.  Temp 26.4.  Talk about instant gratification! :snowing:

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Mod Snow here probably another 20-30 min and we will be done. Freshens up what is on the ground.

 

18z Suite holds serve nice event coming Sunday night into Monday. MA weenies rejoicing right now but a good part of PA gets a decent snowstorm nothing huge but decent. I would suspect this would be easier for models to handle than a Miller B. Seems like consensus would take SLP off of Virginia Beach right now. N PA maybe fringed but there is time for a little more northerly shift.

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That...was a neat little "event" here over the past 30 minutes or so. Squalls seldom make it this far south and east and even when they do the trajectory off the lakes usually sends them to my west down into central MD. Just seeing it snow that hard for a few minutes makes this a win in my books once again.

 

On to the weekend...

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Im all-in on Sunday night. I have a feeling this is a LSV special.

 

It has the potential. I'm liking the mid-level boundary setup so far on the latest runs. Surface temperatures are one thing, but having a more favorable environment for better dendritic growth is key. With a nice high to the north pressing cold air south and the overrunning of moisture from the southern stream, there should be an axis of Mod-heavy snow right in the LSV region with that type of surface low track. Still time for things to change, but the outlook is looking very impressive for a significant snowfall (4"+).

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Im all-in on Sunday night. I have a feeling this is a LSV special.

The way this winter has gone I feel as if when I have a good feeling we miss out here and when I am concerned we perform well.  Right now I feel good so I should probably start to worry so we end up performing well.  It seems to me as if watching the development of the high may be just as or more important than sampling of the energy.  I really just don't see this possibly cutting west at all with a high of that strength and the cold air mass moving into eastern Canada this weekend.  As others have said it looks like we will likely see either a good hit or ends up squashed and held south because things can just never be easy this winter we just seem to have to have good and bad options.  We do well in overrunning events and I do not believe this case would be any different with the favorable north/south temperature gradient in the cold air mass with moisture trying to lift north.  Of course the track is critical, but so will be the amount of that moisture than can shove itself north and get the northern PA folks involved.  A weak low avoids concerns of any mixing as well as not being able to put up a great fight vs the high to try and push north and west as the amped up GGEM run has shown.  I think the models have presented all potential scenarios this week so hopefully this time around more will check model vs actual more often to make sure there are no major surprises.

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I just have a sneaky feeling this does get suppressed south, and those of us north of the PA pike get fringed. Call me pessimistic, but it's the way things have gone for the most part over the past few years. Either I miss out to the south southeast or east. Hopefully I'm wrong.

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I just have a sneaky feeling this does get suppressed south, and those of us north of the PA pike get fringed. Call me pessimistic, but it's the way things have gone for the most part over the past few years. Either I miss out to the south southeast or east. Hopefully I'm wrong.

You're not the only one.

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I just have a sneaky feeling this does get suppressed south, and those of us north of the PA pike get fringed. Call me pessimistic, but it's the way things have gone for the most part over the past few years. Either I miss out to the south southeast or east. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Ehh, these events are usually true central pa bread and butter. It will suck if we end up dry with that brutal cold crapola lol.

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