2001kx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-290745- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0009.150129T1600Z-150130T1200Z/ WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT... ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD... JOHNSTOWN...SOMERSET 238 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WITH SNOW FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE. * TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Can't you challenge snow total measurements through CTP somehow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It would be interesting to see why they made the change on their daily Measurement. It just didn't make any sense, especially when a little more snow fell in the evening. I just want us to reach our climo snow total as soon as possible and losing at least an inch didn't help the cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 0z GFS buries the LSV and out west Sunday into Monday. Below 80 cashes in big time, the Mason Dixon line especially. MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 GEM's even nicer, a good hit for everyone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Good morning 3 degrees this morning with maybe an 1-2" of snow in the next 24hrs. Sunday's storm is looking good for the southern tier! Good to see the storms getting spread around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Seems like the Euro is Struggling some...it's the furthest south. Definitely a nice hit from the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Bottomed out at -4° in Bellefonte this morning...didn't think we'd drop below 0. Looking good for 1-3" for AOO-UNV-IPT this afternoon into tonight. I'm glad to see things looking a bit better for Sunday-Monday. That storm track with the high pressing in to the north is usually good for most of PA. It would be nice to get a region-wide moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 with the super bowl coming up and the talk of a storm, i was thinking this morning that not to long ago we had a good snow on Super Bowl Sunday, Looked back through my notes, January 30th 2000 we had close to 12". Started snowing around noon and snowed until almost midnight. As i looked at my notes that was a good week, we also had significant snow on Tuesday the 25th. so we had 20" on the ground come Monday morning. Also Thursday the 27th leading into Friday the 28th was bitter cold, -15 with wind chill. We need a week like that edit- my Thermometer showed 1 this morning at the house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Go GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Go GFS. I'm very interested to watch its verification this winter after the update. I posted a few days ago that it handled this past storm terribly but I read a lot and apparently it did pretty well given the complexity and far outperformed all other models. For sinking millions upon millions into it I certainly hope it's a much more robust model. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Seems like the Euro is Struggling some...it's the furthest south. Definitely a nice hit from the CMC. Euro ENS mean has a more organized system than the operational run but I also recall Euro struggled with handling a strong high diving into midwest from western canada earlier this winter that GFS nailed. I can't remember when that was though, anyone recall? From 0z Runs last night, the GGEM/CMC kept high moving in slower and further west by Sunday night/Monday morning allowing a pretty good hit, GFS a little quicker to bring the high south but stayed a bit west allowing for a decent hit, and Euro quickest in bringing it south with tracking the furthest east which of course suppresses the system. Euro ENS mean has high a little northwest of operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'm very interested to watch its verification this winter after the update. I posted a few days ago that it handled this past storm terribly but I read a lot and apparently it did pretty well given the complexity and far outperformed all other models. For sinking millions upon millions into it I certainly hope it's a much more robust model. Time will tell. People are giving GFS a win the other day because it had the qpf right for NYC. It mishandled some upper level features and just happened to get lucky that it had surface features closer to what actually happened than Euro/NAM. UKMET did do pretty well so I would give it the win title more than GFS imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 OUCH! Boy that is cold!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 EURO is vodka cold for the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Wow look at those temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 OUCH! Boy that is cold!!! It drops CXY down to a low of 14 below on Tuesday morning with strong radiational cooling. Many other spots west of the LSV it has down to 20 below. Quite a few single digit lows throughout the 16-day run. For the upcoming storm (Sun/Mon) this run gives 0.36" total liquid at CXY. Last night's 0Z gave 0.46" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Is it me or is this clipper crazy looking lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 crazy??? I think it is very dry and not much snow is reaching the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 EURO is vodka cold for the end of next week. I 'd rather it be Pina Colada warm. I don't mind periodic cold, but I wish it wasn't presistant. The 6z GFS didn't have a temp above 32 for my location for the entire 384 hr run, with a low next Tuesday of -15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Don't mean good, Rick, I mean it just looks weird. Should have clarified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I 'd rather it be Pina Colada warm. I don't mind periodic cold, but I wish it wasn't presistant. The 6z GFS didn't have a temp above 32 for my location for the entire 384 hr run, with a low next Tuesday of -15. Same, not big on the negative temp stuff, though I do like snow. I guess that's more your thing if you're into record keeping and things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Don't mean good, Rick, I mean it just looks weird. Should have clarified. I get weird a lot at work "the printer printed weird". "The network is weird" "I got this weird email"--- when ever some one says weird, I respond. the Radars do look "weird", but I stand by my prediction that the air is so dry that is sucks the snow right out of the air. We won't see much. I wasn't bashing you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I know bud, you're one of my favs. Hope you get something out of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 advisories dropped for the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Three GFS runs in a row have had a WSW-level snowstorm for 80 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Wow..GGEM is no fun. Have a feeling this either makes a good run at PA or is a MA special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Over running events creep north last minute. The low level jet is rarely modeled correctly on the globals. I-80 and points south are very much primed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 advisories dropped for the clipper I have a feeling it is going to get a little icy around here over the next few hours... precip moving in earlier with warmer air aloft still in place is not what the models/forecasts had. 12z Euro is much much better for us than 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I have a feeling it is going to get a little icy around here over the next few hours... precip moving in earlier with warmer air aloft still in place is not what the models/forecasts had. 12z Euro is much much better for us than 0z run I was just going to say that djr looks to be more similar to the GFS good snows into most of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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