pasnownut Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 If anyone didnt see the happy hour runs of the GFS....go take a little look see.... all but brought a tear to my eye... I know that after yesterday some/many are gun shy as those who were supposed to get it...didnt and some who thought they wouldn't....did. Taking a look back from afar it does appear that we are heading into a better period with the NAO neut and PNA holding. To see a parade of storms in a potential pattern like this is what I live for with the weather. Even if one cuts or doesn't pan out....its nice to see them lined up for the next chance. Oh to be in the bullseye at 0 hours.... Here's to hoping. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GFS and Nam @ 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 If anyone didnt see the happy hour runs of the GFS....go take a little look see.... all but brought a tear to my eye... I know that after yesterday some/many are gun shy as those who were supposed to get it...didnt and some who thought they wouldn't....did. Taking a look back from afar it does appear that we are heading into a better period with the NAO neut and PNA holding. To see a parade of storms in a potential pattern like this is what I live for with the weather. Even if one cuts or doesn't pan out....its nice to see them lined up for the next chance. Oh to be in the bullseye at 0 hours.... Here's to hoping. Nut Nut The 1 isn't showing in the picture at Haneyville. https://sites.google.com/site/haneyvillesnowcam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Nut The 1 isn't showing in the picture at Haneyville. https://sites.google.com/site/haneyvillesnowcam/ My buddy owns the Carter Camp cabin (second camera). Originally he and i were going in together on a place, and he found this and jumped on it. Really nice area (Short Run Rd.) a couple miles down 144 from Germania. Rode 135 up there last weekend with my son. Hope to be back this weekend as it is real good. Just got off the phone with my bud and his wife. they rode from Gaines to Hyner Run, then back to Germania, Ansonia, then Gaines. Said it was beautiful. Get out and enjoy it however you can folks. Heres a link to a bunch of cams throughout PA and NY. http://www.swedenhillsnocam.com/ Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Off topic but spending the night at Sapp Brothers in Clearfield. Picking up in Du Bois first thing in the morning. Were neighbors for the night Why are the temps incorrect on the forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 GFS partying like it's 2008 with an Apps Runner and a snow-to-garbage event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 CTP on crack? Sun Night Snow likely. Low 24F. Winds light and variable. Chance of snow 90%. 5 to 8 inches of snow expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GFS partying like it's 2008 with an Apps Runner and a snow-to-garbage event. Snow to inches of rain on top of that fresh 3 feet of snow in southern New England too haha. I dunno if I buy that track, I really like a track just south of PA or some attempt at a Miller B evolution if it's going to amplify and take a crack at going into the cold air and snowpack up north. GFS does have a high up north, not overly strong.. but it's there. NAO's forecast to even dip slightly negative during the storm time frame currently, with the continued +PNA/-EPO. Progressive has been a thing this year with southern branch stuff, so we'll see if that continues and eventually keeps the storm south. The 12z suite had the Euro with a storm evolving like the 0z GFS has, and GFS had the same kinda track but plenty cold enough for snow in PA despite that track. And of course 18z GFS was way south of now. Definitely lots of agreement on a widespread winter storm near Groundhog day, but nothing set in stone as to track yet. Also, the GFS and Euro are on the same footing in my eyes for the time being after this past storm. I generally gave the Euro slightly more weight in most situations (esp coastals), but it's tendency to over amp things this winter coupled with the GFS being updated and still feeling out it's tendencies makes it even more dangerous to just assume the classic biases of the GFS and roll all in with the Euro. Thursday clipper system is looking a bit more feisty QPF wise, though the track north of PA will continue to suggest snow is hindered off the mountains in the east (esp LSV). Starting to look like a potential advisory event for the west and perhaps some of the central counties. Should add that SW PA and perhaps the Pittsburgh metro might have some mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 CTP on crack? Sun Night Snow likely. Low 24F. Winds light and variable. Chance of snow 90%. 5 to 8 inches of snow expected. Chris, you're looking at the best forecast from Wunderground, not NWS. NWS never issues snowfall accumulations until within 36 hours of an event. Of course, it would be great if this forecast verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GGEM followed the GFS this evening with low taking a shortcut through PA. Euro is a bit south, in fact taking the precise low track I alluded to in beginning of the previous post above regarding favoring an under PA track. Low runs just underneath the Mason-Dixon with 850 0C line literally straddling the PA/MD border, pretty solid shot of precip for all of PA (likely mainly a sig snow with minor mixing threat near the border). 5 days to go lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 ECM had 12"+ for everyone in the northern side of this region..cuts back to 6-9" for LSV area. Normally I'd get excited about that but...this is the first time I've ever said this: It's the ECM, take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 and the threats start lining up......i still think 1-3 is doable for the LSV thursday into Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Chris, you're looking at the best forecast from Wunderground, not NWS. NWS never issues snowfall accumulations until within 36 hours of an event. Of course, it would be great if this forecast verifies.I actually have it set for KMDT. :shrug: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It's only the Nam but look it that dry slot. Looks like the ole middle finger. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Can someone please explain what may have happened with CTP's official snow measurement for yesterday at MDT ? At the 5pm daily update, it showed 2.9 inches through 5 pm. Then, with the 1 am final update, they lowered it & posted only 1.9 for the day. I don't know how it could have been lowered by 1 inch, especially when the best band of the day that came through the LSV between 5 and 8 pm yesterday. So, I am scratching my head as to how 1 inch got chopped off. I thought if anything, they would have tacked on another .5 to 1 in. when that evening band rolled through? yea this is strange... their snow depth report over the course of the day went from 1" to 4" so I have no idea why the official total is 1.9" now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Can't you challenge snow total measurements through CTP somehow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Jim Cantore is going ape**** on the tweetbook about 4 potential storms between yesterday and next thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Jim Cantore is going ape**** on the tweetbook about 4 potential storms between yesterday and next thursday. Seems like the threats on 2/1 and 2/5 hold some promise to potentially be the most widespread snow events across our forum this season to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I've seen competing theories about why the storm busted so badly from NYC west. Some say that the storm tracked about 50 miles east of where the models had it. I've also heard that the trough which dropped 8 inches on CTP sucked the moisture out of the main storm. Does anyone have insight on that? Was that trough picked up by any of the models? Quote from a met (can't remember the name) in the NYC forum: There is a growing concern with the Euro's performance in primarily positive NAO regimes. If you look at this storm, one of the reasons why it busted is because of the fast progressive flow that allowed it to not be "captured." The Euro forecasted to have the NAO index significantly lower than what verified (even 24 hours before the event). In general, the Euro's performance during -NAO periods is unparalleled (2009-2010), (Feb 13, 2014), but I think it's time we evaluate every model's biases especially with a faster NAO+ period we are in.The GFS might be king this winter for that reason alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Quote from a met (can't remember the name) in the NYC forum: That is my concern with Euro looking good with Monday event now that if there is not enough blocking it will trend a little south and east over course of next few days and move through quicker because of the progressive pattern than what is currently being shown. I beliee this is what occured for the Dec 10-11 event but that is just off the top of my head. I think QPF wise Euro was running in the .4-.6" range for Harrisburg and due to it moving through quicker we still had 3.5" snow but only from .25" liquid. GFS still appears to struggle with north/south stream interaction and may be performing better when that is not involved. I would still lean toward Euro vs just GFS but (this is all assuming 12z is similar to past few runs) maybe 2/3rds the qpf output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 That is my concern with Euro looking good with Monday event now that if there is not enough blocking it will trend a little south and east over course of next few days and move through quicker because of the progressive pattern than what is currently being shown. I beliee this is what occured for the Dec 10-11 event but that is just off the top of my head. I think QPF wise Euro was running in the .4-.6" range for Harrisburg and due to it moving through quicker we still had 3.5" snow but only from .25" liquid. GFS still appears to struggle with north/south stream interaction and may be performing better when that is not involved. I would still lean toward Euro vs just GFS but (this is all assuming 12z is similar to past few runs) maybe 2/3rds the qpf output. What's the temps look like? It looked to me like it went above freezing towards the end of the precip.. what happened to our Clipper for thursday/friday. looks like not as much precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Seems like it's a good year for snow in the air, just a tough year to get everything lined up for a bigger hit. Still this year has been solid, hoping the LSV gets good totals in the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 What's the temps look like? It looked to me like it went above freezing towards the end of the precip.. what happened to our Clipper for thursday/friday. looks like not as much precip The low tracking north of PA hurts precip prospects in eastern PA, especially in the LSV. When you have the low going above PA the westerly flow you have being south of the low can eat precip up via downsloping off of the Alleghenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm actually surprised how much the models are showing here...mainly .14 and up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 One other item about the blizzard last week. Eric Horst and the KU snowstorm books always talk about the importance of a negatively tilted closed low at 500mb. For the heavy snow to work its way back into Central PA you need the 500 mb trough to be neutral-going-negative / closing off as it crossed the Mid Mississippi Valley. If you go back and examine the 500 mb charts from the past 2 days, you will notice things don't close off until the trough is crossing Ohio...way too late for /SEG/MDT/BWI -> NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12z run of euro has stronger high and colder air in eastern canada that just crushes the wave for our Sunday/Monday event... 1040 mb high over weekend out west and -36C at 850mb over eastern Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I think the only thing that busted on NYC more than the Euro/NAM with the blizzard was Jon Stewart on the media coverage of the storm... LOL. http://thedailyshow.cc.com/full-episodes/ss1ifm/january-27--2015---jill-leovy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 What's ECMWF showing for clipper since it got rid of second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I think the only thing that busted on NYC more than the Euro/NAM with the blizzard was Jon Stewart on the media coverage of the storm... LOL. http://thedailyshow.cc.com/full-episodes/ss1ifm/january-27--2015---jill-leovy Believe it or not, there were still mets in the NYC threads that said the euro outperformed the gfs on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I think the only thing that busted on NYC more than the Euro/NAM with the blizzard was Jon Stewart on the media coverage of the storm... LOL. http://thedailyshow.cc.com/full-episodes/ss1ifm/january-27--2015---jill-leovy lol - Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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