Mallow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I don't know, but doesn't look like that is going to happen. People are reporting about 8-10 total in Manhattan, and that includes yesterday's snow. That surprises me quite a bit... I was seeing people say LGA was already up to 9" last night when the band first arrived. Based on the radar loop overnight, I would guess they got another 5-8 inches since then. That being said, pretty sure my 8"+ call was wrong--the banding all fell apart and never made it back in. EDIT: I see they measured 0" of snow in the past 8 hours. There's no way that's accurate, must be a wind-blown snow problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 i was banned from their page last year. Did you measure again? If so what did you have....see below reply I had measured 2" yesterday, but didn't re-measure yesterday or last night, but eye balling an additional 1". I'm putting this in my records as 3", but will adjust if i'm way off from djr, he only lives above me and he measures correctly. I had measured 2.1" yesterday and best estimate from the wind was another .6" since yesterday... may have been slightly more but tough to tell what all is new and what is old at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I had measured 2.1" yesterday and best estimate from the wind was another .6" since yesterday... may have been slightly more but tough to tell what all is new and what is old at this point We had decent winds too. i woke up early this am when they had a fire call up on your street and the wind was howling, had about 6" up against the garage door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 That surprises me quite a bit... I was seeing people say LGA was already up to 9" last night when the band first arrived. Based on the radar loop overnight, I would guess they got another 5-8 inches since then. That being said, pretty sure my 8"+ call was wrong--the banding all fell apart and never made it back in. EDIT: I see they measured 0" of snow in the past 8 hours. There's no way that's accurate, must be a wind-blown snow problem. Laguardia is known for under reporting. The reports I was going off of were from folks in the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Laguardia is known for under reporting. The reports I was going off of were from folks in the forum. Even so, I imagine with the wind it was hard to measure. Still, I was way wrong about the banding. I expected it to hold together and be reinforced by the bands coming in from the east. Instead, everything west of central LI completely fell apart. I guess since I'm not a NE guy, I should keep my mouth shut when it comes to Nor'Easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Did anyone save an S&S map they had out for the storm? Haha I never saw it. Also found another gem that DT posted on his f-book yesterday. As much as I somewhat agree with him with The Weather Channel forecasts being different from the NWS most of the time, especially on the local on the 8s forecast... (pet peeve of mine would be my father will ask a billion times about the TWC local forecast saying this or that and I have to be like they don't go off the NWS anymore)... I have to actually say they did a good job by adjusting their forecast yesterday to reflect the overall trend in the OTHER models sans the Euro. FOLKS we have ANOTHER massive WEATHER CHANNEL SCREW UP... ..TWC is calling for 8-12" in NYC and all of their on-camera Mets are all saying 8-12' TOTAL for the event in NYC.Yet NWS is calling for calling for 24-36". This is just shattering incompetence on behalf of TWC's part. If those idiots want to hire some moron like Al Roker or Sam Champion to do with their weather that's one thing. But when you are talking about 2 feet of snow or more in blizzard conditions I don't think it's asking too much for TWC to carry actual forecast. Remember most people know who watch TWC are NOT weather savvy at all. It becomes a real problem with respect to public confidence and the public's ability to figure out what is actually happening.... when on the one hand the head of NWS is on all the news and cable news stations .... talking about life threatening blizzard conditions ....and on the side we have a TWC on camera meteorologist souless flunkie that seems not to care at all about watches and warnings. They simply spout off whenever the latest piece of **** the GFS or RPM Model is producing . I know exactly where TWC is getting their 8-12" storm total for NYC. As I stated in another post the Monday midday GFS model came out and it has only 6 inches of snow and New York City... and ONLY 8-14" in CT. It's obvious what's going on here. They simply look that whenever the GFS model is showing because it's more important to TWC to produce weather stories about weather and truckers or weather and Pets. Suppose is was a hurricane? And TWC decided for some reason (that had nothing to do with actual science)... to NOT carry hurricane watches and warnings? Would you be perfectly OK with TWC telling people the winds are only going be 50 mph .. not 100... and the coastal flooding is not going to be significant? Last I checked most of the NYC metro does, in fact, have generally 8-12" city wide this morning. And though they will probably see some more additional, the excessive snowfall has occurred out on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Good morning guys... I picked up an additional 0.4" since midnight bringing my storm total to 3.3". Total liquid 0.40" (which included 0.05" of rain). I actually think I can say I'm happy now...lol...the 3.3" on my board actually looks significant! Haven't spoken to my relatives/friends yet in NJ but I don't think they got nearly what they were expecting. My one weather friend who lives in Bergen County (northeastern-most county) will probably have one of the highest totals from that area. I'll check with him a little later and give you all an update. I guess it's on to the Thursday clipper and then something maybe more significant on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Did anyone save an S&S map they had out for the storm? Haha I never saw it. Also found another gem that DT posted on his f-book yesterday. As much as I somewhat agree with him with The Weather Channel forecasts being different from the NWS most of the time, especially on the local on the 8s forecast... (pet peeve of mine would be my father will ask a billion times about the TWC local forecast saying this or that and I have to be like they don't go off the NWS anymore)... I have to actually say they did a good job by adjusting their forecast yesterday to reflect the overall trend in the OTHER models sans the Euro. Last I checked most of the NYC metro does, in fact, have generally 8-12" city wide this morning. And though they will probably see some more additional, the excessive snowfall has occurred out on Long Island. DT is a word I can't say on here. He is a good forecaster, but is arrogant, and believes that he knows better than any other met. A good met (at least I imagine) realizes that they are in a business that they won't always be right, and it isn't a crime to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I've crept up to about 5.1" in the off and on snow we've had. Looked like you had a nice round of heavy snow over Clearfield earlier this eve. yes , nice little storm. Never thought we would get 7"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 a pic from this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 LOL this storm killed the S&S kids. Their FB page is gone entirely. That's a successful storm is my book! wonderful news!! I'd say this was a successful 10 days. A couple of opportunities to track, some snow-concrete base and fluffy topcoat. More hope down the line, and some legit cold to give us a chance. Way better than 30 days ago when the local bridges were closed to weenie pedestrian traffic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Looks like 4" storm total when all is said and done here in New Salem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 i'm thinking this clipper Thursday into Friday would be similar, 1-3". I'm certainly no expert, but it looks like we'll be in the teens, even single digits, but when the precip moves in we warm up to high 20"s. Please correct me if i'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Looks like 4" storm total when all is said and done here in New Salem. I'll give you credit on your prediction. If I had time I'd go back and bump that post. Nice job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 i'm thinking this clipper Thursday into Friday would be similar, 1-3". I'm certainly no expert, but it looks like we'll be in the teens, even single digits, but when the precip moves in we warm up to high 20"s. Please correct me if i'm wrong. With the low moving to our north, I'd be wary of forecasting more than an inch or so east of the mountains...usually not a good path for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 DT is a word I can't say on here. He is a good forecaster, but is arrogant, and believes that he knows better than any other met. A good met (at least I imagine) realizes that they are in a business that they won't always be right, and it isn't a crime to be wrong. agreed. He is really hard to read sometimes. He busted bad with this storm but you would never know it from him. NYC, west, NJ, PHL all got way less than modeled. GFS didn't do a bad job after all, going up against the EURO/NAM. I do not envy forecasters with these types of storms. It can go from a Blizzard, to a typical snowstorm, to nothing just like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Is that a Miller A potential forming Sunday/Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Is that a Miller A potential forming Sunday/Monday? There has been a solid signal on most models for a storm coming up from the south in that time frame. I think that one has a better than average chance of being a hit for PA, but way too early to be sure of anything, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 There has been a solid signal on most models for a storm coming up from the south in that time frame. I think that one has a better than average chance of being a hit for PA, but way too early to be sure of anything, really. TBH, my biggest concern is actually rain/mixing, even up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 TBH, my biggest concern is actually rain/mixing, even up here. I remember that being my concern in those twin collapses last March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 12z GFS looks like a Snow/Frozen to rain situation for SB Sunday into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'll give you credit on your prediction. If I had time I'd go back and bump that post. Nice job Thanks. It pays to be a pessimist when it comes to weather. Unless you live in Oklahoma, Alabama or SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I've seen competing theories about why the storm busted so badly from NYC west. Some say that the storm tracked about 50 miles east of where the models had it. I've also heard that the trough which dropped 8 inches on CTP sucked the moisture out of the main storm. Does anyone have insight on that? Was that trough picked up by any of the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I've seen competing theories about why the storm busted so badly from NYC west. Some say that the storm tracked about 50 miles east of where the models had it. I've also heard that the trough which dropped 8 inches on CTP sucked the moisture out of the main storm. Does anyone have insight on that? Was that trough picked up by any of the models? Not sure about the 50 miles but it really didn't explode quite as quickly as NAM/Euro had so I believe it was a little more north and east its track when the best banding developed last night. The 8" on CTP is really a drop in the bucket in terms of overall moisture associated with this system. I find it hard to believe the inverted trough is to blame when there are many 20+" reports to the east to show there was a significant amount of moisture available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Not sure about the 50 miles but it really didn't explode quite as quickly as NAM/Euro had so I believe it was a little more north and east its track when the best banding developed last night. The 8" on CTP is really a drop in the bucket in terms of overall moisture associated with this system. I find it hard to believe the inverted trough is to blame when there are many 20+" reports to the east to show there was a significant amount of moisture available. Ineresting. And it turns out that 50 miles may have been an understatement. An Accuwx met posted a map showing that yesterday's 12Z Euro was off by 120 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Eastern PA Wx Authority blaming an inverted trough axis which set up over CPA for the busted totals. Sounds reasonable to me, but would love to hear from the pros here if there's any validity to that. My NYC family and friends went from disappointed to angry as they have concluded that they lost two days of work to a run of the mill storm. Not sure about the 50 miles but it really didn't explode quite as quickly as NAM/Euro had so I believe it was a little more north and east its track when the best banding developed last night. The 8" on CTP is really a drop in the bucket in terms of overall moisture associated with this system. I find it hard to believe the inverted trough is to blame when there are many 20+" reports to the east to show there was a significant amount of moisture available. I just think that at the end of the day, Miller B's will be Miller B's. There's always a zone that gets a minimum of precip when there's a transfer, and when we're talking about a northern branch system that drops in down to our latitude and reforms off the coast..it's usually somewhere in our region. I actually think all of PA would have done uniformly well had the system evolved the way the models had it before they went for the big phase and coastal hit, where the low just would have passed under us and not exploded into a new storm until it was way out. Conversely, if the storm would've been captured further west, we likely would've been talking about the western half of PA that would've been cut off while the Sus Valley cashed in. I didn't have a dog in the fight when it came to making a forecast for the tri-state area and southern New England... but I definitely would not have made a gigantic 24-36 region like Upton had in their grids... and I would've blended with the other guidance and had axis of heaviest snowfall just east of NYC, while still giving them a significant snowfall. I had mentioned this and my uncertainty for Philly/NJ in multiple posts leading up to and into the storm. Just a harsh lesson in not completely buying into a particular model when making a forecast. My forecast map for the Philly region and far eastern PA tried to blend in the further west Euro/NAM with the further east GFS, RGEM, etc... and it still wasn't enough. I think it's also important to utilize or at least consider high res near term guidance more when the event is close or occurring, the HRRR and RAP have done fairly well the last couple events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I just think that at the end of the day, Miller B's will be Miller B's. There's always a zone that gets a minimum of precip when there's a transfer, and when we're talking about a northern branch system that drops in down to our latitude and reforms off the coast..it's usually somewhere in our region. I actually think all of PA would have done uniformly well had the system evolved the way the models had it before they went for the big phase and coastal hit, where the low just would have passed under us and not exploded into a new storm until it was way out. Conversely, if the storm would've been captured further west, we likely would've been talking about the western half of PA that would've been cut off while the Sus Valley cashed in. I didn't have a dog in the fight when it came to making a forecast for the tri-state area and southern New England... but I definitely would not have made a gigantic 24-36 region like Upton had in their grids... and I would've blended with the other guidance and had axis of heaviest snowfall just east of NYC, while still giving them a significant snowfall. I had mentioned this and my uncertainty for Philly/NJ in multiple posts leading up to and into the storm. Just a harsh lesson in not completely buying into a particular model when making a forecast. My forecast map for the Philly region and far eastern PA tried to blend in the further west Euro/NAM with the further east GFS, RGEM, etc... and it still wasn't enough. I think it's also important to utilize or at least consider high res near term guidance more when the event is close or occurring, the HRRR and RAP have done fairly well the last couple events. Reminds me of this post related to the big bust in March 2001 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/9024-march-4-6-2001/where even the recent dominant and reliable models can catch you off guard when they miss on one (and wow have the times changed in the model world since then lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 so since there is a discussion on Miller B's here is a link someone shared with me once http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/Newsletter/Fall%202006/Climatology_of_Heavy_Snow.htm I don't keep to many notes, but the last record i have for a Miller B we did well was Feb 16-17, 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Can someone please explain what may have happened with CTP's official snow measurement for yesterday at MDT ? At the 5pm daily update, it showed 2.9 inches through 5 pm. Then, with the 1 am final update, they lowered it & posted only 1.9 for the day. I don't know how it could have been lowered by 1 inch, especially when the best band of the day that came through the LSV between 5 and 8 pm yesterday. So, I am scratching my head as to how 1 inch got chopped off. I thought if anything, they would have tacked on another .5 to 1 in. when that evening band rolled through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Off topic but spending the night at Sapp Brothers in Clearfield. Picking up in Du Bois first thing in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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