NortheastPAWx Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 And regardless of how it breaks, it's funny to see how the NAM has gone in certain subforums from being an amazing model to now being worthy of the trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 And regardless of how it breaks, it's funny to see how the NAM has gone in certain subforums from being an amazing model to now being worthy of the trash. I think we know it is trash regardless. When the NAM shows 22 inches for me, I know I will get 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 nice job....i know youre still concentrating on this storm but any preliminary thoughts on thurs and sunday? Thurs looks to feature the clipper low north of PA this time, so might not be much of a snow event.. esp the further east in PA you go. Sunday looks like the next potential widespread winter weather event for the country with southern stream origins. Def lots of potential with that one, but plenty of time to get details sorted out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think we know it is trash regardless. When the NAM shows 22 inches for me, I know I will get 2. Yeah, just saying...people hoopla'd for it when it was cranking 30+ for NYC...now that it's cut back everyone's encouraging trashing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Thurs looks to feature the clipper low north of PA this time, so might not be much of a snow event.. esp the further east in PA you go. Sunday looks like the next potential widespread winter weather event for the country with southern stream origins. Def lots of potential with that one, but plenty of time to get details sorted out. nice...thnx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Can we talk for a minute on what a steaming pile of chit the GFS has been? That "upgrade" took the sick dog out back ab shot it, then set it on fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 what gets me is that they are still getting big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 MAG - nice job in western pa. Near Rt 70 especially to the southeast had mixing issues, but otherwise spot on for the immediate Pgh area. More of a marathon than a sprint, but we got there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 picked up another .8" bringing my running total to 5.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I can tell you that I was just outside and can report that we are at half (1st quarter) moon tonight, so that tells you just what the weather is like in Tamaqua...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I can tell you that I was just outside and can report that we are at half (1st quarter) moon tonight, so that tells you just what the weather is like in Tamaqua...lolLOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Measured about 11" on the ground here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Voyager, I can confirm that observation. Well, looks like those Big Apple weenies can shut up in the next hour...they'll be getting crushed with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Voyager, I can confirm that observation. For personal reasons, I'm kind of glad we didn't get much snow from this one, but it still amazes me how you and I seem to be consistantly on the wrong side of any storm, from any direction, and of any severity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Voyager, I can confirm that observation. Well, looks like those Big Apple weenies can shut up in the next hour...they'll be getting crushed with snow. might be just me, but water vapor imagery doesn't look too supportive of long duration banding for as far west as NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Craig Allen of WCBS radio ranting on facebook about how the heavy bands are not making it into the city. Says he's not ready to throw in the towel, but the trend is bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Mag you was pretty spot on with your map. Overall very professional looking! It's still snowing here. I'm about 2 miles north of IPT. Last check I had 5" of snow. I cleaned my snow boards and will check them in the am. Mag on the Thursday/ Friday storm you mentioned it looks north. The pattern this year seems to have been clippers having a south movement as they get closer. Just wondering what your thoughts are on that? Would also like to thank everyone who added input to this last storm!!! Edit: Mag seen your post on clipper being north...just wanted your thoughts on south trend. Or anyone's thoughts. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 might be just me, but water vapor imagery doesn't look too supportive of long duration banding for as far west as NYC It really doesn't and the upper air setup isn't as friendly either. This looks like a LI and SNE special. NYC will get their snow and probably get 12" or so, but those 24-36" total aren't looking too promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 might be just me, but water vapor imagery doesn't look too supportive of long duration banding for as far west as NYCI was going to say NYC weenies might be hitting the bridge they will get there snow but not what was modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Big bands are rapidly approaching the city and H5 is still not closed. They'll do fine...just not 24-30"+ fine ofc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It really doesn't and the upper air setup isn't as friendly either. This looks like a LI and SNE special. NYC will get their snow and probably get 12" or so, but those 24-36" total aren't looking too promising. I made mention of this from the radar presentation earlier this evening in the Philly thread. I overemphasized "missing" NYC, but it clearly looked like everything was headed for Long Island and New England. Looking at the radar AS CURRENTLY PRESENTED, one could almost argue that it appears as if it's going to miss New Jersey and NYC and just pummel New England. While there is always that possibility, other imagery, like what you posted, argues otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Big bands are rapidly approaching the city and H5 is still not closed. They'll do fine...just not 24-30"+ fine ofc. fine meaning what?6-10"?a lot of hype and transit shutdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 From NWS bgm facebook page about their lack of advisories: Many have asked why do we have the gap in the middle with advisories both over our far west and eastern areas. This is and continues to be a major COMMUNICATION issue for us. Getting the forecast right is hard enough, communicating it is even harder. As mentioned above we are having two separate storms impacting our area over a 2 day period with a minimum in snowfall right down the middle of our forecast area. Very hard to communicate especially when you consider the heaviest of the snow is not only falling over two different geographic areas (far west and east) but over two different time periods (Monday through early Monday evening/Tuesday morning/afternoon). Our best advice is to continue to view our snowfall maps and check for updates. Our goal is to issue the best forecast possible but trend either up or down, with new guidance and observations. We are human and do make errors but with 100% CERTAINTY we always strive for perfection in an imperfect atmosphere. Give us some room for error. 3) We respect everyone's opinion and right to free speech. With that said we want to remind everyone, as we have in past storms, we are VERY open to discussion/questions, etc. However, please remember to treat everyone with respect, including us and those that post on this page. Before you click submit, reread what you have written. Ask yourself would you want that to be said to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 fine meaning what?6-10"?a lot of hype and transit shutdown Think they'll get a foot-plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Beautiful band of snow in York County. Nice fat fluffy flakes and 23 degrees in New Salem. 2.5" since 3:00 pm today. 3.5" storm total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Think they'll get a foot-plus. I really don't think so. All the bands are drying out before they hit the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 I really don't think so. All the bands are drying out before they hit the city. They'll get there - already snowing hard in Queens. Think I bit too much earlier...12-16 sounds good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I really don't think so. All the bands are drying out before they hit the city. what a bust in NJ and PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 They'll get there - already snowing hard in Queens. Think I bit too much earlier...12-16 sounds good. 16" seems like a stretch. I can see 12" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 They'll get there - already snowing hard in Queens. Think I bit too much earlier...12-16 sounds good. The only reason they are going to get that is because of that fluke snow band that set up over them. They MIGHT hit 10-12 total, but the only reason is because they got 5 inches earlier. The main storm really only is going to give them about 5-7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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