Voyager Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The IPT-AVP snow dome is stronger and further south with this one. But Tamaqua is right in the middle of it as usual... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The weenie suicides are starting in the NYC threads...precip is not really backsliding as modeled, and well, that is going to cause major meltdowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Oh, and just to throw it out there...measured about 2" today and have about 6-7" OTG. If it were just the clipper on its own it wouldn't be a big deal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windberwx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 No, I'm not complaining just asking but wasn't there talk of a Groundhog's Day storm or have the models taken that away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Oh, and just to throw it out there...measured about 2" today and have about 6-7" OTG. That's pretty much what I have. On a side note, it looks to me like the precip shield is really consolidating into a nice band of moderate snow out to the west of the Susquehanna. I almost looks like a large deformation band out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Some of the best rates and flakes of the day occurring here currently with the nice little flare up on radar in the central counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Some of the best rates and flakes of the day occurring here currently with the nice little flare up on radar in the central counties. That is what we had all day. Every time it looked like things would dissipate, a new band would pop up. What are your thoughts on what is going on out east...to my untrained eye things do not look good for NYC right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 MAG is that band going to die out or pivot back east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 DT insisting that NAM/Euro had this lull in the precip for NYC and that it will pick up after 11. As much as it stinks that we got the Miller B shaft, it's fascinating to watch this play out. 24 degrees and light snow in Lemoyne. Of course I shoveled this afternoon thinking it was over and now everything is covered again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 2.2" for the event here. brings me to an even 14" std Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 DT insisting that NAM/Euro had this lull in the precip for NYC and that it will pick up after 11. As much as it stinks that we got the Miller B shaft, it's fascinating to watch this play out. 24 degrees and light snow in Lemoyne. Of course I shoveled this afternoon thinking it was over and now everything is covered again. Not really. The NAM and Euro never really picked up correctly on that small band that set up right over NYC and gave them 5 inches. If you look at the 18z NAM, by this point the sim radar already had good returns well into NJ.....not even close to the case as to what is going on right now. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=006ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_006_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150126+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 MAG is that band going to die out or pivot back east? HRRR and RAP seem to keep this precip generally anchored where it is and slowly dissipate as the evening wears on, so we will see. Actual radar representation looks a bit healthier than on those models, so it may eventually meander back east. We're almost to the point where the coastal will have completely taken over and the deform shield will be the only game in town (or out of town for us) in terms of meaningful precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Well the insane amounts in NYC are in jeopardy looks like things ticked North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 NJ is completely dry for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If NYC's numbers are in jeopardy, the surely it's game over for Philly, right? Snow has stopped in Lemoyne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Looks like we'll have close to a foot on the ground if we can squeak out another inch or so this evening. Roads look about as bad as they've been all day, with the sun down and the plows likely not coming by as frequently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 2.25 inches for the event. Been a nickel and dime season. Best event was in November of 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 That is what we had all day. Every time it looked like things would dissipate, a new band would pop up. What are your thoughts on what is going on out east...to my untrained eye things do not look good for NYC right now. Well certainly the short term high resolution models are looming large attm. One of the mets in there made a great point about the HRRR not doing as well over water because it only initializes and modeled off of what the radars are seeing, and when the whole thing is out over water, your not getting as good of a depiction and thus it doesn't model the westward extent well. With that said, I expected a more marked westward correction as the evening wore on than has happened, and both the HRRR and RAP have in fact remained pretty steadfast. The RAP still gets the precip shield into NYC fairly decently, which is something that looks like should occur based on radar trends. As I said earlier this evening, I'd be more worried in Philly and NJ (esp interior). I still think NYC will get hit decently (and has already gotten some decent totals from some rogue bands), but it seems apparent to me that the excessive amounts could stay from about central LI outward and upward into southern New England. When I say decently I think they'll end up with a foot or so..with the associated wind impacts. The jury's still out west and southwest of that though in NJ/Philly, IMO...which I've considered as an area that would be tough to call the last day or so. Considering the snow numbers that are put out for this storm (Philly region and essentially all of Jersey 10+ and half of NJ in 18+) the bust potential is monumental. I decided on putting Philly and extreme eastern PA along the Delaware River for 7-10" in the snow map I put out yesterday for PA, and I consider that in jeopardy of verifying attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Well certainly the short term high resolution models are looming large attm. One of the mets in there made a great point about the HRRR not doing as well over water because it only initializes and modeled off of what the radars are seeing, and when the whole thing is out over water, your not getting as good of a depiction and thus it doesn't model the westward extent well. With that said, I expected a more marked westward correction as the evening wore on than has happened, and both the HRRR and RAP have in fact remained pretty steadfast. The RAP still gets the precip shield into NYC fairly decently, which is something that looks like should occur based on radar trends. As I said earlier this evening, I'd be more worried in Philly and NJ (esp interior). I still think NYC will get hit decently (and has already gotten some decent totals from some rogue bands), but it seems apparent to me that the excessive amounts could stay from about central LI outward and upward into southern New England. When I say decently I think they'll end up with a foot or so..with the associated wind impacts. The jury's still out west and southwest of that though in NJ/Philly, IMO...which I've considered as an area that would be tough to call the last day or so. Considering the snow numbers that are put out for this storm (Philly region and essentially all of Jersey 10+ and half of NJ in 18+) the bust potential is monumental. I decided on putting Philly and extreme eastern PA along the Delaware River for 7-10" in the snow map I put out yesterday for PA, and I consider that in jeopardy of verifying attm. Well, the NAM just came out, as I'm sure you see, and instead of 2-3 feet, NYC gets 5-8 inches. Had to be a tough forecast, but this has to be one of the biggest busts, if it holds, the euro has had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think I'll bite...cutting NYC down to 10-15" from 14-18". They'll get theirs but it obviously will not be the 18-24"+ the NAM/ECM were churning out for them as recently as 10-12 hours ago. NAM still gives true central another 1-3"...happier for you folks out there for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 really coming down here in Altoona. I think this is the best Ive seen from this storm. Probably picked up a good inch if not more in the last hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Well, the NAM just came out, as I'm sure you see, and instead of 2-3 feet, NYC gets 5-8 inches. Had to be a tough forecast, but this has to be one of the biggest busts, if it holds, the euro has had. March 2001 written all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 March 2001 written all over it That was miles worse for NYC...you're talking 30" down to 15 for this event...that storm was 30+" that wound up verifying as like 4"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 the Plow drivers are the real heroes here. 12 hour shifts and constant idiots on the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 msnbc is showing 10 to 14" for NYC now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Speaking of my map, here it is for posterity sakes. I'm fairly happy with it overall.. I'm glad I lowered the Sus Valley. SW PA might've been a bit high. Seemed like it did OK but haven't really scrutinized the PNS totals yet with the event still ongoing. Obviously as I just said, I think far eastern PA is in trouble attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yeah, I think this one's sunk for places like the Poconos and Philly metro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Speaking of my map, here it is for posterity sakes. I'm fairly happy with it overall.. I'm glad I lowered the Sus Valley. SW PA might've been a bit high. Seemed like it did OK but haven't really scrutinized the PNS totals yet with the event still ongoing. Obviously as I just said, I think far eastern PA is in trouble attm. post-1507-0-55541400-1422250921.png Actually, SWPA you might have been a bit low. The highest report in Allegheny County was at the NWS office in Moon and 7.5 inches, so my guess is that there was 6-9 across the county. Beaver, Butler, and Westmoreland did fairly well too. You were really close though, and not many others had even more than 6 here. Far SWPA there were major issues with mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Speaking of my map, here it is for posterity sakes. I'm fairly happy with it overall.. I'm glad I lowered the Sus Valley. SW PA might've been a bit high. Seemed like it did OK but haven't really scrutinized the PNS totals yet with the event still ongoing. Obviously as I just said, I think far eastern PA is in trouble attm. post-1507-0-55541400-1422250921.png nice job....i know youre still concentrating on this storm but any preliminary thoughts on thurs and sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 That was miles worse for NYC...you're talking 30" down to 15 for this event...that storm was 30+" that wound up verifying as like 4"... I know just making a point about busting with models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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