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Central PA & the fringes - January 2015 Part II


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Moderate snow with huge flakes coming down.  Still all snow here.  Temp down to 32.6.  Closing in on one inch.  It's a wet snow so it is sticking to literally everything.

 

We had a storm like this last winter.  Temp never got below 32.4 with that event.  I think we got at least four or maybe five inches with that one.

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Can anyone from the state college area tell us if the 35 dbz's going through Altoona and rapidly approaching UNV is heavy snow or sleet?

 

I suspect the same echoes near Shippensburg might be sleet??

 

Temp here down to 32.5.  Getting oh-so-close.

Twitterers I've read are saying sleet and even plain rain out near Altoona.
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Can anyone from the state college area tell us if the 35 dbz's going through Altoona and rapidly approaching UNV is heavy snow or sleet?

 

I suspect the same echoes near Shippensburg might be sleet??

 

Temp here down to 32.5.  Getting oh-so-close.

 

Just came up through Altoona, it's all snow... very heavy snow.

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Can anyone from the state college area tell us if the 35 dbz's going through Altoona and rapidly approaching UNV is heavy snow or sleet?

 

I suspect the same echoes near Shippensburg might be sleet??

 

Temp here down to 32.5.  Getting oh-so-close.

 

All snow. Not even the slightest hint of sleet. Aggregates of a mix of flake types... maybe a little riming, but barely noticeable. Even some dendrites mixed in.

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Can anyone from the state college area tell us if the 35 dbz's going through Altoona and rapidly approaching UNV is heavy snow or sleet?

 

I suspect the same echoes near Shippensburg might be sleet??

 

Temp here down to 32.5.  Getting oh-so-close.

 

All snow here. I think the heavier reflectivity you are referencing has reduced correlation coefficient values, indicating melting aloft and probably sleet reaching the surface. The bottom right panel from KCCX shows this region about 80 km south of the radar.

 

post-869-0-66778800-1422073479_thumb.png

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All snow. Not even the slightest hint of sleet. Aggregates of a mix of flake types... maybe a little riming, but barely noticeable. Even some dendrites mixed in.

 

Beautiful aggregates! Makes sense given that conditions are favorable for the growth of dendrites aloft. There's even a hint of a dendritic growth zone on radar in some of the higher tilts.

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Beautiful aggregates! Makes sense given that conditions are favorable for the growth of dendrites aloft. There's even a hint of a dendritic growth zone on radar in some of the higher tilts.

 

It's really piling up, there is no mixing to the southwest. I just came from Blue Knob which is at 3k ft in far NW Bedford County and came up through Altoona to get home. I went from just under 2" to 2.5" in the 20 minutes i've been home.

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scanner really starting to pick up with accidents around the area... correlation coefficient was showing a large area of what was likely mixing from chambersburg moving north but looks to be turning back to snow now... some sleet mixing in here but about 75/25 snow to not snow... most rain/sleet reports hanging around Mason-Dixon Line and creeping north slower than I was expecting

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I'm hearing the faint sounds of some pings outside now.  I'd say no worse than 90/10 snow/sleet mix.  Sounds like I will go back to all snow soon.  Temp down to 32.4.  Flake size keeps changing...now about medium size.  A little over an inch accumulation, it is compacting somewhat as well.

 

I am going to melt down my accumulated snow at midnight so I can get a quick look at ratios thus far.  It's been a wet snow so I am guessing less than 10:1.

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I'm hearing the faint sounds of some pings outside now.  I'd say no worse than 90/10 snow/sleet mix.  Sounds like I will go back to all snow soon.  Temp down to 32.4.  Flake size keeps changing...now about medium size.  A little over an inch accumulation, it is compacting somewhat as well.

 

I am going to melt down my accumulated snow at midnight so I can get a quick look at ratios thus far.  It's been a wet snow so I am guessing less than 10:1.

 

Update...moderate to almost heavy snow now with barely any pings (95/5).  Flake size back to huge again.

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Yeah, we've had at least 1/2" in the past 15 minutes. Up to an inch or so already. The snow is falling thick, the aggregates are puffy, there are lots of dendrites, and it's piling up very quickly! Too bad the band is almost done here.

 

Another 12 minutes, another 1/2". Up to just over 1.5" on my car, now.

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mcd0039.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0039   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1048 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN PA...CNTRL/NRN NJ...SE NY   INCLUDING NYC AND LONG ISLAND...PORTIONS OF CT   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW    VALID 240448Z - 241045Z   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT --   ESPECIALLY FROM 06Z TO 09Z -- FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL   APPALACHIANS ENEWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LONG ISLAND   COAST...INCLUDING THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA. LOCAL   SNOWFALL RATES TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHIELD OF WIDESPREAD   PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE OHIO   VALLEY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD WARM-ADVECTION ZONE ANALYZED AT   H85. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE   NIGHT...AS RELATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS MAINTAINED WELL DOWNSTREAM   OF A POSITIVELY TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WATER VAPOR LOOPS   DEPICT AS EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS   VALLEY. RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST 2-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS   AROUND 3.5-4.5 MB FROM SERN VA TO ERN NC...MOST LIKELY A REFLECTION   OF INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PRECEDING THE TROUGH BECOMING   JUXTAPOSED WITH A NE/SW-ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE/INVERTED TROUGH   ANALYZED ROUGHLY 40-75 MILES INLAND FROM THE COAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE   IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE/DEEPEN FROM THIS INTERACTION AND MOVE OFF   THE COAST...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WAA AND FRONTOGENETIC   ASCENT TO ITS N. IN TURN...PRESENT PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL BE   MAINTAINED...OR PERHAPS INCREASE...ACROSS THE DISCUSSION   AREA...PARTICULARLY AS A DEFORMATION BAND BECOMES ESTABLISHED WELL   N/NW OF THE EVOLVING SFC CYCLONE.   SUBJECTIVE SPATIAL INTERPOLATION BETWEEN THE 00Z IAD AND OKX RAOBS   SUGGESTS NEAR- TO BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXISTING...AND   CONTINUING TO EXIST...THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THE MCD   AREA. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE GIVEN CONTINUED NOCTURNAL DIABATIC   COOLING AND MODEST ADIABATIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH DCVA PRECEDING   THE APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH. WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN   SLIGHTLY ABOVE 0C FROM SERN PA TO CNTRL NJ...WET-BULB-ZERO HEIGHTS   WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 500 FT AGL -- AS AFFIRMED BY RAP FORECAST   SOUNDINGS AND INTERPOLATED OBSERVED SOUNDINGS. AS SUCH...SNOW IS   FORECAST TO BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE   DISCUSSION AREA...WITH DEEP...NEAR-ISOTHERMAL/NEAR-0-C LAYERS   FOSTERING EFFICIENT GROWTH OF SNOW AGGREGATES. AS SUCH...SNOWFALL   RATES WILL LOCALLY REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR. SUCH RATES IN HEAVY SNOW   WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z FROM CNTRL PA TO CNTRL   NJ...WHILE SPREADING ENEWD TOWARD THE NEW YORK CITY AREA AND SRN NEW   ENGLAND THROUGH THE LATE-NIGHT HOURS.   VERY LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 10Z...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT   STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE E-CNTRL NJ COAST -- IN RESPONSE   TO CYCLOGENESIS FARTHER SOUTH -- MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL   WARMING FOR PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH AND/OR CHANGE TO RAIN.   HOWEVER...THIS WILL GENERALLY BE IN A CONFINED AREA NEAR THE COAST   WHERE OCEANIC HEAT FLUXES ARE MAINTAINED INLAND ONLY OVER A MODEST   DISPLACEMENT.
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