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Central PA & the fringes - January 2015 Part II


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It's interesting to see people watching or following, for me it's just not worth it unless it's a hurricane or severe outbreak. If it's a snowstorm I'm all in for CPA or not interested lol.

Growing up in Atlanta I learned to live vicariously through the sub forums here whenever someone got slammed. The mid Atlantic forum in 2009-2010 was ridiculously fun to read.

Still steady light snow here, might accumulate a bit better with the sun going down. I feel like this event had already exceeded my expectations for state college, although it sucks that the LSV got basically screwed.

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Can anyone find the latest KMDT snowfall measurement? The latest public info notice from CTP doesn't have anything from Dauphin, just a 1" report at 11:30 a.m. from Camp Hill.

 

The lack of snow here, truly, is impressive given what's happening all around. CTP's taken any accumulations out of the MDT grid forecast.

METAR KMDT 261156Z 06007KT 7SM -SN OVC014 M04/M07 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP118 4/003 P0000 60009 70021 T10441067 11017 21044 56008

 

latest I have seen is a 3" depth reported at 7am this morning

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Amazing what's going on just 100 miles to our east. Amazingly...disgusting. They're going to get 2' easily and maybe even 3'...

 

I'd still be nervous if I were especially in Philly or NJ. Thus far the HRRR and RAP have been only glancing even the NYC area and concentrating farther out on LI and Southern New England with the intense deform. The RAP hits Jersey and NYC better but man if that HRRR were to ever verify... oh man haha. It's literally leaving most of Jersey and Philly out of it at this point.

 

Still a good bit of lead time yet for those particular models so I would expect them to probably come back inside with time. Still though, they haven't been all that bad the last couple events.. they did well with the southern stream system Friday and illustrated the quick hitting intense snowfall well as well as ptype placement. 

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Radar really filling in around Baltimore metro/Lancaster county.  Coastal looks like it's starting to throw precip back.

I was just about to say that it looks like the coastal is throwing precipitation further west then estimated. I see streams of moisture going east to west. The cutoff of the moisture in the models seem to be caused by us being on the west side of a north/south flow but this looks very different. Is it due to the LP being slower moving north and therefore it is getting its act together way before reaching us? Could be some higher totals perhaps.

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I'd still be nervous if I were especially in Philly or NJ. Thus far the HRRR and RAP have been only glancing even the NYC area and concentrating farther out on LI and Southern New England with the intense deform. The RAP hits Jersey and NYC better but man if that HRRR were to ever verify... oh man haha. It's literally leaving most of Jersey and Philly out of it at this point.

 

Still a good bit of lead time yet for those particular models so I would expect them to probably come back inside with time. Still though, they haven't been all that bad the last couple events.. they did well with the southern stream system Friday and illustrated the quick hitting intense snowfall well as well as ptype placement. 

From what I've read the NAM and EURO seem on track.

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4.5" with very light snow falling.

A little over 10" snowpack.

 

We have about 10" on the ground as well. It has mainly been a steady light snow all day, with pretty good snow growth at times. As I was heading back from campus, I saw some lightly rimed dendrites mixed with aggregates and columns, which probably indicates some weak convective cells aloft.

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I have no issues with the New England guys. They are pretty laid back, and when I read their threads I find it pretty entertaining. However, I LOVE seeing NYC and the Mid Atlantic guys bust. Not all of them are terrible, but when I see people complaining about a 17 inch snowstorm I want to punch a kitten. And yes, we did see that in the NYC thread.

I agree....the only thing about New Eng is theyve had their fair share the last number of years and they act like they havent had a decent storm in a decade.  Its our turn. Lets hope we cash in the next couple months

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I agree....the only thing about New Eng is theyve had their fair share the last number of years and they act like they havent had a decent storm in a decade.  Its our turn. Lets hope we cash in the next couple months

They're New England - they have to right to complain if they don't get a 2' storm for a few years. Heavy snow is what NE does.
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They're New England - they have to right to complain if they don't get a 2' storm for a few years. Heavy snow is what NE does.

 

I always love when the NY or MA folks say to someone from my area "but you get 40-50 inches a year, stop complaining." They don't seem to grasp the concept that half of that comes from 1 or 2 inch clippers or LE events. I would take 25-30 inches on average a year, with 10+ inch storms every 2 winters, with the potential for the mega 20+ storms they have. A storm like 2/5/10 here where we got 20+ happens it seems like every 20 years here, where in NYC they seem to get it every 5 years. Heck, I don't think I have had a 10+ inches since Feb of 10.

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They're New England - they have to right to complain if they don't get a 2' storm for a few years. Heavy snow is what NE does.

I guess I should move to New England then because CPA isnt where heavy snows go anymore.  Vermont and New Hampshire are beautiful states. It would be nice to live there

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I always love when the NY or MA folks say to someone from my area "but you get 40-50 inches a year, stop complaining." They don't seem to grasp the concept that half of that comes from 1 or 2 inch clippers or LE events. I would take 25-30 inches on average a year, with 10+ inch storms every 2 winters, with the potential for the mega 20+ storms they have. A storm like 2/5/10 here where we got 20+ happens it seems like every 20 years here, where in NYC they seem to get it every 5 years. Heck, I don't think I have had a 10+ inches since Feb of 10.

Pittsburgh always gets screwed. Oh well someday.  Hey on the bright side of things only 23 days til pitchers and catchers.  GO BUCS

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Getting moderate-sized aggregates now. It seems like the recent increase in coverage and intensity of precipitation over central PA may be due to the increasingly efficient easterly moisture transport associated with the developing coastal low.

 

Both the HRRR and the 4 km NAM maintain a loosely-defined band of enhanced precipitation over central PA until at least 03z tonight. We may be able to pick up a few more inches, especially in areas where more locally-intense cells develop.

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