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Central PA & the fringes - January 2015 Part II


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Updated map:

 

http://screencast.com/t/tLQwTfSpk

post-1507-0-55541400-1422250921_thumb.pn

 

Reduced totals a bit in the Sus Valley. First I removed what had been a mistake in the southern Sus Valley and backed off on QPF totals by about a tenth. Truth be told I only really lowered totals an inch or so in the Sus Valley, I still think there will be general 4-5" amounts in that area with more 2-3" amounts in the far north central. Lowered extreme SW PA somewhat as they might continue to deal with mixing issues. Slight tweaks to the expected deform zone along/east of I-81. Also tweaked the ranges to make it 2-5, 5-7 and 7-10+". The + will probably only come into play if the Euro's farther west deform came to fruition. 

 

Also performed a procedure to take the excess values outside of PA (extract by mask for you ArcGIS gurus) since I'm only doing PA stations and a PA only map. 

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Finally, cold air advection is beginning to take hold as my temp has dropped suddenly in the past hour from 32.3 to 30.7 and falling at a rate of 2 degrees / hour at the moment.  Winds have picked up noticeably in the past 30 minutes from the NNE at 5-10 mph and that's aiding in bringing down the colder air.  That puts a halt to any further melting of the falling snow.  It's been snowing lightly and steadily here with flake size fluctuating, and I've got about 0.5" of snow on the board.

 

I'm heading off to bed soon.  I'm keeping my expectations wayyyyyyy low, as in I hope to reach the 2" mark by the time I get up in the morning.

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King Euro is testing his loyal subjects on the coast, that's for sure. Here we're just hoping that the lower end of the forecasts will verify.

 

I dropped a point and click into the Queens section of NYC and the added up total of those ranges is 23-39 inches. Wind gusts 50+. Looks like something you'd see in the Sierra Nevada Mountains or something. That'd be insane if even the low end of that verified. Even a more run of the mill 10-15" type snow with those high winds would be an extremely high impact storm. I'm still kinda doubtful if NYC gets the absolute bullseye of 24-36" the NWS has painted. I could def see that in interior southern New England though. 

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I dropped a point and click into the Queens section of NYC and the added up total of those ranges is 23-39 inches. Wind gusts 50+. Looks like something you'd see in the Sierra Nevada Mountains or something. That'd be insane if even the low end of that verified. Even a more run of the mill 10-15" type snow with those high winds would be an extremely high impact storm. I'm still kinda doubtful if NYC gets the absolute bullseye of 24-36" the NWS has painted. I could def see that in interior southern New England though. 

I would personally cut to about 16-24" if I were forecasting up there. That's still insane...

 

Oh yeah, I think someone in New England will see 40+ easy. Maybe the Patriots can use that to inflate their SB balls...

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I would personally cut to about 16-24" if I were forecasting up there. That's still insane...

 

Oh yeah, I think someone in New England will see 40+ easy. Maybe the Patriots can use that to inflate their SB balls...

 

The real insanity will be when NYC gets 19" and people are complaining that the forecasts were wrong because they didn't get 2'.

 

Moderate snow continues in Lemoyne, now down to 28 degrees with wind gusting a bit. Just a coating on most surfaces so far. Plows have come by twice in the last half hour, but there isn't anything to plow yet.

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Snow growth is improved at the moment with moderate-sized aggregates falling. We'll see what happens here as the primary low weakens, with most guidance placing the inverted trough feature west of State College. The 06z NAM remains the farthest east with this feature, bring the best surface convergence roughly over a line from Johnstown to Dubois.

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Ugh. Models after moving away from mega storm in nyc go back to crushing them at 6z. What a shame, as most of that group deserves as many busts as possible. Complaining about a 10+ inch storm like they were is laughable.

yes they've had more than their share of monster storms over the past 5 years. 

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Are we officially screwed on any snow from the Nor'easter?

ABC27 saying HBG might see another 1-2" before sunset but no more.

 

WGAL also appears pessimistic about round 2. I'm going to take them giving up as a sure sign that we're going to get smacked with a rogue band later tonight, but that's just the optimist in me talking. 

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