Scummyratguy Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 E. Horst, MU WIC @MUweather Follow Snow lovers....prepare to be let down, as impacts in our area won't likely meet the hype-machine of some in the media and METEO world. Eric Horst sticks with a conservative forecast. He's bold, but also incredibly intuitive about the local impacts of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Watching the weenies melt down on the AccuWeather forums is, admittedly, slightly amusing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GFS at 36 hrs looks like it'll be a terrible run for the coast, but it puts a nice band for CTP Actually the lift associated with the inverted trough is a bit farther west; oriented from western PA into northern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GFS way east again they should really do without this model EURO to score a coop for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well the NAM has been stuck at hr 27 for like an hour now. Apparently 30% of the reporting stations used by the NAM did not report due to some kind of computer outage. I've been lurking in the NYC subforum and there are some that think the 24" snow totals are going to be overdone, possibly by a significant amount. This type of thing almost always seems to happen when you are within 24 hours of the event and the hype and anticipation is huge. I must say that I could handle a letdown of expecting 6" and only getting 3", but when you are expecting 24"+ and end up with 12", that's a pretty significant letdown. It seems the NYC crowd is banking on the EURO holding on to it's astronomical snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well the NAM has been stuck at hr 27 for like an hour now. Apparently 30% of the reporting stations used by the NAM did not report due to some kind of computer outage. I've been lurking in the NYC subforum and there are some that think the 24" snow totals are going to be overdone, possibly by a significant amount. This type of thing almost always seems to happen when you are within 24 hours of the event and the hype and anticipation is huge. I must say that I could handle a letdown of expecting 6" and only getting 3", but when you are expecting 24"+ and end up with 12", that's a pretty significant letdown. It seems the NYC crowd is banking on the EURO holding on to it's astronomical snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 60hr GFS Snow has stopped here momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Not bad. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 [...], but when you are expecting 24"+ and end up with 12", that's a pretty significant letdown. Yeah, well, why don't they try living in the fringe zone where we have to watch them get their foot-plus while we struggle to get 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 E. Horst, MU WIC @MUweather Follow Snow lovers....prepare to be let down, as impacts in our area won't likely meet the hype-machine of some in the media and METEO world. Eric Horst sticks with a conservative forecast. He's bold, but also incredibly intuitive about the local impacts of storms. Horst saw the Nam as with any forecasters that forecast miller B they cover themselves I like Eric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 E. Horst, MU WIC @MUweather Follow Snow lovers....prepare to be let down, as impacts in our area won't likely meet the hype-machine of some in the media and METEO world. Eric Horst sticks with a conservative forecast. He's bold, but also incredibly intuitive about the local impacts of storms. I wonder who he is referencing? Not much overhype for a major storm around here. I guess some NJ peeps follow his forecasts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 (Sorry for the duplicated post, it won't let me delete the second one. The board seems to still be a bit on the shaky side operationally.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I wonder who he is referencing? Not much overhype for a major storm around here. I guess some NJ peeps follow his forecasts though. http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/SWD-latest.html I think he explains it better in the post he just did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I wonder who he is referencing? Not much overhype for a major storm around here. I guess some NJ peeps follow his forecasts though. IIRC a couple of the facebook weather bloggers had Lancaster County on the edge of the big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 we have 1.25" so far in Altoona. The snow isnt coming down heavy but steady. Very fine flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah, well, why don't they try living in the fringe zone where we have to watch them get their foot-plus while we struggle to get 6". given the trends over the last couple of days, the wyoming valley has been in the screw zone for more than a few runs in between the clipper pre-jump and post-jump. it's a reason why i went only 4-6 there. and with a tight gradient on the back side of the nor'easter, i wonder if my 18-24 in NYC is too high now. but plenty of time still, even with the storm closing in. besides, it looks like SW PA will be a bit more of the key numbers attm. besides, with Hazleton at 21/16 and AVP at 21/6 at this stage, it makes me wonder about the 4" mark for the valley, but i'll stick with what I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 besides, with Hazleton at 21/16 and AVP at 21/6 at this stage, it makes me wonder about the 4" mark for the valley, but i'll stick with what I have. Are you thinking that 4" is even too high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 5-11" total here? 5" maybe but up to 11" ? Overnight Snow. Low around 17. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Monday Snow. High near 25. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Monday Night Snow, mainly before 4am. Low around 19. East wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Snow quickly covering up sideroads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 wnep just showed the euro, it hat 12 inches for the wyoming valley.... the nam shows far less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Starting to cover everything here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Are you thinking that 4" is even too high? if that dew point at Avoca doesn't go up soon, yea it makes me wonder if 4" storm total is too high. i'd think by now we'd be at least in the low teens by now, maybe mid teens in Hazleton. there may not be enough moisture working in for that to happen. hopefully while i sleep tonight the moisture will fill in at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Blair and Bedford counties look like the winners at 6 to 8" according to NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 wnep just showed the euro, it hat 12 inches for the wyoming valley.... the nam shows far less. that the 12Z run? because the 00z ECMWF isn't out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 1.3" and moderate snow falling. Nice little NE breeze going too. I'm gonna make a couple adjustments to my snowmap before we get too deep into this system. I already needed to correct the error I had in the LSV near I-83Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So Binghamton isn't even going to go with a Winter Weather Advisory for Luzerne??? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDEW80 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 radar really not looking good for mdt at this point, hope it improves overnight. had my hopes up earlier but having my doubts at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The sense I get from the tweet-eorologists is that there are going to be a lot of disappointed snow lovers here and elsewhere. Last I heard it was still raining near the MD line. 31 and snowing lightly in Lemoyne. Roads just wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Awesome dryslot over HBG. Precip splitting north and south, breaking apart right as it hits Marysville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Awesome dryslot over HBG. Precip splitting north and south, breaking apart right as it hits Marysville. Precip is developing south east near Cumberland MD moving your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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