NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Binghamton currently forecasting 8" over the next couple days. The length may be a factor in issuing headlines, but I'd think at least a WWA would be fair to get an alert out. Tonight Snow, mainly after 2am. Low around 15. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Monday Snow. High near 25. East wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 3 inches. Monday Night Snow. Low around 19. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches. Tuesday Snow likely, mainly before 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Northwest wind 13 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Imagine if the GFS is right and we wind up with a March 2001-style bust for NJ/NYC/HV areas... Imagine if Euro is king :snowing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Here's the point and click for the town (Chatham, NJ, Morris County) I grew up in and lived for 41 years before moving out here 14 years ago. I have never seen this much snow being forecast ever... Tonight A chance of snow, mainly after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Northeast wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Monday Snow. High near 26. Northeast wind 11 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Monday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Blustery, with a northeast wind 17 to 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Tuesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 26. Blustery, with a northwest wind 23 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible. Tuesday Night A chance of snow showers, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Blustery, with a northwest wind 14 to 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. For those who do not want to do the math the storm total is forecast to range from 19" to 34". The single biggest storm I ever lived through there was 26 inches...from the January 7-8 1996 Miller A. My head is literally spinning. I have 2 sisters who still live back in that area along with many weather weenie friends, so I won't have a problem staying on top of what they're going through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Amazing that the wx channel is still on regular stupid programs with this hitting the major markets. Any way should be interesting how this turns out. At least in Lancaster to York Co. thinking 5-8 till it over. Man this is a weird one to even get close to predicting totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Binghamton currently forecasting 8" over the next couple days. The length may be a factor in issuing headlines, but I'd think at least a WWA would be fair to get an alert out. Tonight Snow, mainly after 2am. Low around 15. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Monday Snow. High near 25. East wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 3 inches. Monday Night Snow. Low around 19. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches. Tuesday Snow likely, mainly before 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Northwest wind 13 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches. that's what I am wondering. why not a WWA for the valley cities, towanda, and Binghamton? wonder what their thinking is, away from the discussion, on why that's not the case. 4-6 (imho) is not no slouch amount. it also leaves a nasty hole in the watch/warning/advisory board between state college, philly, and Brookhaven. if anyone here is on NWSchat, maybe someone can ask the guys at I-86 and I-81 what's going on with that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Plain rain in Gettysburg right now. 36 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 btw, for my snowmap, here's my thinking, take it fwiw. https://twitter.com/hpbear149den/status/559482543834406912 (would have posted the pic instead of the twitter status, but i see they're still getting some parts of the board fixed after the ugly crash). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 my wife works at a local school district and I work/teach at a college. I know the college plays by different rules. but it would be easier if the alert came out now and the schools closed now. 8 inches over 24 hours is enough for a winter storm warning. otherwise a advisory should be issued.. what is the NWSchat you mention? Is it something us mere mortals can see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 State College posted a good discussion today regarding the questioning of advisories, and while this is only State College addressing themselves, they do mention consulting with other agencies... Many of you are noting that our Storm Total Snowfall graphic shows that we expect places will receive 6+ inches of snow and are asking the question: Why has there been no Winter Storm Warning issued? Answer: The criteria for issuing Winter Storm Warnings for snow is not a simple 6" number/pixel on the picture. The forecasters should have an 80% or better confidence that a county-wide average of 6 or more inches of snow will occur in 12 hours or less. The criteria for a warning for any 24 hour period is slightly more at 8 inches or more as a county-wide average. The Storm Total graphic routinely covers a period of more than 12 hours, and sometimes even more than 24 hours. Note that, at this point, there are no locations which meet Warning criteria (confidence, timing, amounts). In order to issue a Winter Storm Watch, the forecasters must have at least a 50% confidence that Warning criteria will be met. A Watch is meant to be a pre-cursor to a Warning. There is currently a Winter Storm Watch for a few counties in the Southeastern part of our forecast area of responsibility. Of course, our forecasters have the discretion to issue Warnings and Advisories at times when the strict criteria may not be met -- due to a high confidence that weather conditions will lead to an unusually high impact to the area. Situations like these may include: a storm which may occur unusually early or late in the season, or when the conditions will be dangerous during a particularly high travel day or time, or when there will be a combination of many weather hazards that, when taken as a whole, will create unusually hazardous/dangerous conditions. We do collaborate with our neighboring offices when making forecast and warning decisions. Note that there are different criteria in place for warnings in locations outside of Central PA. Also, timing of things like the storm onset, heavy snow, etc., factor into our warning decisions - and when these decisions are made. The main factor for issuing Watches, Warnings and Advisories is forecaster confidence that conditions will be met. At times, due to higher uncertainty in a particular situation, warning decisions will be made at shorter ranges. The Watch, Warning and Advisory criteria for Central PA (and surrounding locations) are described in more detail on our web page: http://www.weather.gov/ctp/wwaCriteria Our goal is to make forecasts which will provide scientifically sound forecasts so that you may make prudent decisions, stay safe, and minimize travel impacts and economic losses. The official snowfall forecasts in 6-hourly blocks may be seen on weather.gov at: http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/ctp.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sorry, that page doesn’t exist! btw, for my snowmap, here's my thinking, take it fwiw. https://twitter.com/hpbear149den/status/559482543834406912 (would have posted the pic instead of the twitter status, but i see they're still getting some parts of the board fixed after the ugly crash). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 My prediction: Harrisburg: 4.5" York: 5.5" Scranton: 3" State College: 4" Williamsport: 3" Lancaster: 7.5" W-B: 3" I'd bump H-Burg to 5" and lower York to 4". Otherwise, that's incredibly reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Why you hatin on York?? ETA- light rain and 39. York is a snow town! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 what is the NWSchat you mention? Is it something us mere mortals can see? it's a chat line that is made available to NWS personnel, media members (which i was one with Weathereye), EM agencies, and even some storm spotting organizations. but it required clearance from the NWS to get in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sorry, that page doesn’t exist! try this link. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8OuaJPIUAAL2Pf.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Why you hatin on York?? York doesn't do so well with Miller B's. I live in New Salem, so I'm in the same boat. Temp went from 41 to 35 in about the past 2.5 hours. Light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Why you hatin on York??Ever been to York? (I kid!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluestring Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 btw, for my snowmap, here's my thinking, take it fwiw. https://twitter.com/hpbear149den/status/559482543834406912 (would have posted the pic instead of the twitter status, but i see they're still getting some parts of the board fixed after the ugly crash). Sorry, that page doesn’t exist! Fixed the link. https://twitter.com/hpbear149den/status/559482543834406912 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Steady light snow has started here. I finished my snow map around 3, but it was after Euro time and the forum was down again. At any rate here it is, this is including the entire event including the coastal part. Click on the link, for whatever reason it won't let me upload...forums making me mad today. http://screencast.com/t/PzDzHaqjH Stayed fairly safe in far eastern PA where clipper snows might not be as great as western/central PA and it's still fairly questionable how extensive the deform snows will be for eastern PA. We'll see how well snows do in the Lower Sus Valley, I thought about bending that 3-5 down into the Harrisburg region or even further but I think snows will linger for most of the day tomorrow.Also, map uses an interpolation method based upon points I have. This is meant to be a PA only map and I don't have points outside of PA (say in NJ for instance), so the values that show outside of PA's boundaries won't necessarily be accurate. I'd be plugging in higher accums if I had points in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 My prediction: Harrisburg: 5.5" York: 7.0" Scranton: 7.5" State College: 6.5" Williamsport: 5.0" Lancaster: 7.5" W-B: 7.0" Edit: Mag that map is a thing of beauty!! Predictions look good to... Jim M nice map also!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Steady light snow has started here. I finished my snow map around 3, but it was after Euro time and the forum was down again. At any rate here it is, this is including the entire event including the coastal part. Click on the link, for whatever reason it won't let me upload...forums making me mad today. http://screencast.com/t/PzDzHaqjH Stayed fairly safe in far eastern PA where clipper snows might not be as great as western/central PA and it's still fairly questionable how extensive the deform snows will be for eastern PA. We'll see how well snows do in the Lower Sus Valley, I thought about bending that 3-5 down into the Harrisburg region or even further but I think snows will linger for most of the day tomorrow.Also, map uses an interpolation method based upon points I have. This is meant to be a PA only map and I don't have points outside of PA (say in NJ for instance), so the values that show outside of PA's boundaries won't necessarily be accurate. I'd be plugging in higher accums if I had points in NJ Thanks for the map! Hoping for a solid advisory snow here and it looks like it may happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Steady light snow has started here. I finished my snow map around 3, but it was after Euro time and the forum was down again. At any rate here it is, this is including the entire event including the coastal part. Click on the link, for whatever reason it won't let me upload...forums making me mad today. http://screencast.com/t/PzDzHaqjH Stayed fairly safe in far eastern PA where clipper snows might not be as great as western/central PA and it's still fairly questionable how extensive the deform snows will be for eastern PA. We'll see how well snows do in the Lower Sus Valley, I thought about bending that 3-5 down into the Harrisburg region or even further but I think snows will linger for most of the day tomorrow.Also, map uses an interpolation method based upon points I have. This is meant to be a PA only map and I don't have points outside of PA (say in NJ for instance), so the values that show outside of PA's boundaries won't necessarily be accurate. I'd be plugging in higher accums if I had points in NJ Try projecting the map in PA State Plane South in the future. Much better presentation, otherwise nice work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'll go with 4-7" here for now, varying depending on how banding sets up. One fluke band could change it all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 try this link. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8OuaJPIUAAL2Pf.png that worked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Map looks good Mag. Site is super fast for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Map looks good Mag. Site is super fast for me. Yep, looks like we're back on in full again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 My prediction: Harrisburg: 5.5" York: 5.5" Scranton: 7.5" State College: 6.5" Williamsport: 5" Lancaster: 7.5" W-B: 7" Edit: Mag that map is a thing of beauty!! Predictions look good to... Jim M nice map also!! thanks. i have to admit, i'm not totally going ballistic with NYC itself, given some of the 18Z runs. but that being said, it's still going to be nasty at 18-24 with blowing and drifting in play. as for PA, the forcing in the susquehanna valley looks like it almost negative bubbles a bit during the jump. but i am just hoping there isn't too much hype where its shouldn't be, and hoping that the mets back there do emphasize the 2-phase aspect oft his system in central and especially northeastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 steady snow falling in Altoona. Walks and side streets are covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Steady light snow has started here. I finished my snow map around 3, but it was after Euro time and the forum was down again. At any rate here it is, this is including the entire event including the coastal part. Click on the link, for whatever reason it won't let me upload...forums making me mad today. http://screencast.com/t/PzDzHaqjH Stayed fairly safe in far eastern PA where clipper snows might not be as great as western/central PA and it's still fairly questionable how extensive the deform snows will be for eastern PA. We'll see how well snows do in the Lower Sus Valley, I thought about bending that 3-5 down into the Harrisburg region or even further but I think snows will linger for most of the day tomorrow.Also, map uses an interpolation method based upon points I have. This is meant to be a PA only map and I don't have points outside of PA (say in NJ for instance), so the values that show outside of PA's boundaries won't necessarily be accurate. I'd be plugging in higher accums if I had points in NJ WTF mag...You had to carve around Clearfield - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 2001kx looks like he got you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 MAG thanks for your input as always!..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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