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Central PA & the fringes - January 2015 Part II


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Idk if the board is having issues from the upgrades or just pure traffic, but it's been really slow since the announced 2pm update time. Going by CTPs fairly consistent discussion looks like we're still looking at a solid advisory snow, while the DC weenies are apparently jumping off the cliff after the 18z nam

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who nos what the snows are going to do? not the NWS. even though the Euro shows a nice snow fall, they are being super cautious. why? I figure they get bonuses for not issuing alerts until late in the game. :)

 

Maybe I am over reacting, but there are schools who won't do anything until the NWS issues the alerts.

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The NAM's gradient across northern NJ is phenomenal.  Looks like western NJ at the Delaware Water Gap have between 0.25 and 0.50 and at the eastern end near NYC is 2.00".  That would be pretty wild.

 

This reminds me a storm back in the late 90's where most of NJ was supposed to get over a foot, but when the storm arrived some kind of incredible northern precip cutoff took place with Atlantic City getting like 18" and Bergen county getting less than an inch.  That was one of the most heartbreaking storms of my life because of the incredible anticipation of what we thought was coming up from the south.  I'm guessing it was a Miller A that decided to exit severe stage right when it reached the Delmarva.

 

Meanwhile, back here both models seem to show around 0.50 to 0.70" of liquid for the 48 hours starting tonight.  Four to Six inches would certainly make up for my disappointing 2.5" I received Friday night.  Maybe this one will somehow turn out to be an over-achiever for the Susq Valley?

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So I was watching TWC earlier and then just watched this morning's WGAL video and based on that it appears as if there *might* be a band of snow that sets up around Snyder, Perry, Mifflin, Juniata, western Cumberland, SE Huntingdon and Franklin counties that continues on as the clipper transfers into the coastal.

 

This would lead me to believe that somewhere within the mid-state that may happen. Where is the $64,000 question.

 

Maybe we can get some kind of scenario like what happened last February with the deathband that went through and dropped an insane amount on some places.

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Here's the point and click for the town (Chatham, NJ, Morris County) I grew up in and lived for 41 years before moving out here 14 years ago.  I have never seen this much snow being forecast ever...

 

Tonight A chance of snow, mainly after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Northeast wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

  • Monday Snow. High near 26. Northeast wind 11 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
  • Monday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Blustery, with a northeast wind 17 to 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.
  • Tuesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 26. Blustery, with a northwest wind 23 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.
  • Tuesday Night A chance of snow showers, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Blustery, with a northwest wind 14 to 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

 

For those who do not want to do the math the storm total is forecast to range from 19" to 34".  The single biggest storm I ever lived through there was 26 inches...from the January 7-8 1996 Miller A.

 

My head is literally spinning.  I have 2 sisters who still live back in that area along with many weather weenie friends, so I won't have a problem staying on top of what they're going through.

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