paweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 2:56 AM, PSUHazletonWx said: Can't we have ONE FREAKING STORM where we don't have to worry about fringing, mix lines, or any of that bullshyte? it is the NAM every other model has a PA snowstorm let's see what the rest of 0z says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 2:59 AM, pawatch said: 63 850 temp does really drop off. Exactly 3 hours tons of CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 2:56 AM, PSUHazletonWx said: Can't we have ONE FREAKING STORM where we don't have to worry about fringing, mix lines, or any of that bullshyte? Nope. And to think, yesterday we were worried about being on the northern edge. I do have to agree with paweather though, it isn't a long duration, yet, where we're above 0c at 850. Most of this event is still snow with a little ice, at least in my backyard. That being said, the northern push of mid level warmth has to stop...now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 0z NAM map for PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 3:02 AM, maytownpawx said: I was thinking the same thing...when those maps from earlier today were showing a statewide plastering, I thought to myself "this is too good to be true." And, unfortunately...it looks like it was. You know, there's a reason why big, double digit snows are a once in a decade event down this way. We, and I'm not including you because I know how painful it was up that way in previous years, but down here (and especially in NYC) were utterly spoiled. South of the PA/NY border, it's a fool's errand to be hopeful about SWF events. They're New England and upstate NY storms, almost to a T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The NAM is just a nuisance event for MDT. I'll be really sad if that's true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 3:19 AM, Voyager said: 0z NAM map for PA. 0z NAM.jpg South of the 850 low track, that's very likely overdone. It's almost to the NY/PA border on this NAM run. But let's see what other models have to say tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 3:22 AM, canderson said: The NAM is just a nuisance event for MDT. I'll be really sad if that's true. Not necessarily, if much of it falls as freezing rain down there. That could be much more than a nuisance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This has to be some kind of record for mood-swings around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 3:19 AM, Voyager said: 0z NAM map for PA. 0z NAM.jpg voyager thanks I still don't know why people look at a model verbatim it is happening verbatim on NAM is 3-4 inches and then a mix but that's verbatim when did that work out. I'll still say NAM not bad right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 3:26 AM, Atomixwx said: This has to be some kind of record for mood-swings around here. Welcome to an edgy forum that knows nothing but weather life on the edge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 3:24 AM, jm1220 said: Not necessarily, if much of it falls as freezing rain down there. That could be much more than a nuisance. That's the one thing about Tamaqua. If we flip to freezing rain, somehow the surface temps make a rapid rise to 33 degrees. I've never seen more than a quarter inch in town proper. Up in McAdoo and along I-81 on the ridgetop is a different story though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo radley Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 3:26 AM, Atomixwx said: This has to be some kind of record for mood-swings around here. LOL, and for once I'm not leading the charge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo radley Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm pretty cool with this one as long as it hits, I'll take snow, sleet, frz rain or whatever, at least it looks like a lot of whatever we're gonna get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 3:28 AM, Voyager said: That's the one thing about Tamaqua. If we flip to freezing rain, somehow the surface temps make a rapid rise to 33 degrees. I've never seen more than a quarter inch in town proper. Up in McAdoo and along I-81 on the ridgetop is a different story though. Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 3:27 AM, paweather said: voyager thanks I still don't know why people look at a model verbatim it is happening verbatim on NAM is 3-4 inches and then a mix but that's verbatim when did that work out. I'll still say NAM not bad right now It'll be interesting to see if the GFS follows the NAM's lead like it has all day or if it holds serve where it was at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 2:54 AM, Wmsptwx said: Weird dryslot keeps showing up on NAM lol. That's cuz it has the low moving right over our heads. Track like that would feature a front thump that would probably shut off to more scattered precip that mixes and changes back to snow whenever the low passes by. Snowfall would obviously be hurt in the southern tier by mixing but also by the fact the best precip would be from 80 on north anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lte5000 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 3:31 AM, PSUHazletonWx said: Same here. Only recent big ice storm I can remember here in Lebanon Co was Dec 2007 (or was it 2008?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo radley Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 3:31 AM, PSUHazletonWx said: Same here. Much, much more favorable set up to never get above freezing. Whoever had ice would likely stay below freezing surface then the temps crash. Would be a real mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 3:31 AM, PSUHazletonWx said: Same here. We need a direction change with the caption on our thread haha. Actually we're probably about due for a new thread anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 3:42 AM, MAG5035 said: We need a direction change with the caption on our thread haha. Actually we're probably about due for a new thread anyways. Yeah, we got over 1K quick - I'll let someone else have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Funny how I posted "This ends north of us." the other night and the sky is falling crowd right now makes it sound like i'm going to end up right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 3:42 AM, MAG5035 said: We need a direction change with the caption on our thread haha. Actually we're probably about due for a new thread anyways.I vote that you start a new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well, the GFS is def starting the event as snow as of the 48 hr frame. Same low positioning at that frame as 18z, 850s are actually a tad cooler. Seems like better presence of the building high to the north of us vs the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 3:36 AM, MAG5035 said: That's cuz it has the low moving right over our heads. Track like that would feature a front thump that would probably shut off to more scattered precip that mixes and changes back to snow whenever the low passes by. Snowfall would obviously be hurt in the southern tier by mixing but also by the fact the best precip would be from 80 on north anyways. I was wondering about dry slotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I made a part three. Maybe a new author brings luck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 3:47 AM, MAG5035 said: Well, the GFS is def starting the event as snow as of the 48 hr frame. Same low positioning at that frame as 18z, 850s are actually a tad cooler. Seems like better presence of the building high to the north of us vs the NAM thanks Mag NAM will be the warmer model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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