Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,587
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

January 23-24 2015 Storm Observations


Rtd208

Recommended Posts

 

 
Holy crap, it's pouring snow out there.  1.5" over the last hour and we're up to 3.5" here in Metuchen as of 3 am; still at 31F.  2 more hours of this and we'll get to 6".  I know Mt. Holly updated their advisories, but they ought to be thinking about issuing warnings.  
 
One other cool thing: it's absolutely still out there, which is unusual for moderate/heavy snow - and it's fairly wet snow, so it's accumulated perfectly on every tree/branch, without the wind - simply gorgeous.  

 

 

As of 4 am, we have 4.75" of snow on the ground - that's 1.25" the last hour.  Snowing moderately now with temp still at 31F - not quite as heavily as it was.  If the radar is to be believed, looks like we have another 30-45 minutes of snow, so we should at least make it to 5" which is way beyond the 1-2" Mt. Holly had for us at 4 pm - and back then I pointed out the discontinuity with NWS-NYC, who had SI, to my east, getting 3-4".  Mt. Holly just updated their snowfall map and has me in the 4-6" swath and they put Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris, Sussex, Warren and NE PA under WS Warnings - but not Middlesex, lol.  

 

StormTotalSnowRange.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 337
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Winds at the surface now starting to veer to the NE as the area moves under the influence of the cyclonic circulation. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think Upton is going to go with warnings, surprisingly...

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GREATEST 3 HR PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE DELMARVA
REGION THIS MORNING WHERE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
DEEPENING. STRONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT SNOWS AIDED BY A COUPLING
UPPER JET PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH TOTALS JUST OVER 3 INCHES. FARTHER TO THE SW
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PA...THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OVER 5 INCHES.
THE HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 HOURS AT
TH COAST BEFORE A WARM AIR ALOFT CHANGES PCPN OVER TO A WINTRY MIX
WITH PLAIN RAIN LIKELY AT THE COAST BY MID MORNING. FARTHER
INLAND...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC...A MIX IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFT BEFORE ENDING A SNOW.

LATEST DUAL POL DATA SHOWS A CHANGEOVER THE SLEET AND RAIN 10 TO
20 MILES SOUTH OF LI. THIS SHOULD ADVANCE NORTH WITHING THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDES EASTERN LI AND
SE CT...WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH 3 INCHES
BASED ON CURRENT RATES.

00Z MODEL RUN PRODUCE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP THROUGH 8 AM...WITH
ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF INCH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH LESS AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN COASTAL AREAS. THE WINTER
STORM WARNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW
INTERIOR CT SHOULD PUSH CLOSE TO 6 INCHES.

TEMPS WILL STAY NEARLY STEADY OF SLOWLY RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 30S TODAY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Light to ocnl moderate snow

3.5 - 4"

 

Thinking I'm going to finish very close to 5".

 

Looks like "the line" is running from just north of TTN to Sandy Hook.

From everything I've seen and am seeing looks to me like max ants over

NNJ will end up near 6-7" with a general 4-6" for most places west of

the GSP and north of 195.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Light to ocnl moderate snow

3.5 - 4"

 

Thinking I'm going to finish very close to 5".

 

Looks like "the line" is running from just north of TTN to Sandy Hook.

From everything I've seen and am seeing looks to me like max ants over

NNJ will end up near 6-7" with a general 4-6" for most places west of

the GSP and north of 195.

 

 

W

 

Light to ocnl moderate snow

3.5 - 4"

 

Thinking I'm going to finish very close to 5".

 

Looks like "the line" is running from just north of TTN to Sandy Hook.

From everything I've seen and am seeing looks to me like max ants over

NNJ will end up near 6-7" with a general 4-6" for most places west of

the GSP and north of 195.

We are looking good in Long Hill (Stirling here). I think we never change and have the heaviest convection as mixing will likely make it to maybe middlesex. My call was 6 to 8 whole time... I am feeling good

Link to comment
Share on other sites

RU848789, on 24 Jan 2015 - 04:21 AM, said:snapback.png

I don't think Upton is going to go with warnings, surprisingly...

 

 

Most places will stay under the 6" mark most likely except for N&W of NYC

 

Yeah, but a ton of their CWA will likely get to 6", based on what we've seen in NJ: I would think Bergen/Passaic and the Hudson Valley Counties, at least, and maybe even the Bronx and western Union/Essex, would get warnings, but they didn't.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mixing with sleet here.... 4.0" on the ground.

 

 

Probably 4 to 8 inches...least in Staten Island...where the warming aloft will intrude first...and that afternoon band appears to be focused a bit to the east...so they have two things going against them. 

 

Very good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

RU848789, on 24 Jan 2015 - 03:11 AM, said:snapback.png

Holy crap, it's pouring snow out there.  1.5" over the last hour and we're up to 3.5" here in Metuchen; still at 31F.  2 more hours of this and we'll get to 6".  I know Mt. Holly updated their advisories, but they ought to be thinking about issuing warnings.  

 

One other cool thing: it's absolutely still out there, which is unusual for moderate/heavy snow - and it's fairly wet snow, so it's accumulated perfectly on every tree/branch, without the wind - simply gorgeous. 

 

RU848789, on 24 Jan 2015 - 04:12 AM, said:snapback.png

As of 4 am, we have 4.75" of snow on the ground - that's 1.25" the last hour.  Snowing moderately now and still at 31F - not quite as heavily as it was.  If the radar is to be believed, looks like we have another 30-45 minutes of snow, so we should at least make it to 5" which is way beyond the 1-2" Mt. Holly had for us at 4 pm - and back then I pointed out the discontinuity with NWS-NYC, who had SI, to my east, getting 3-4".  Mt. Holly just updated their snowfall map and has me in the 4-6" swath and they put Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris, Sussex, Warren and NE PA under WS Warnings - but not Middlesex, lol.  

 

 

 

So, sleet started mixing in around 4:30 am and we now have 100% sleet at 5 am and we're at 32F.  Final snowfall tally was 5.25", which is a huge win.  Just stunningly gorgeous out there.  And we have enough snow on the ground now that any rain that falls will be absorbed in the snowpack, rather than melting it - and when it all freezes tonight, we'll actually have more frozen mass than we have now, meaning the frozen slush will last longer than the snow we have now would have if it stopped right now.  Glad I stayed up for all of the snow.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...