Reb Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The Euro is jackpot! Unfortunately we know which way these things have trended this year. The Euro seems to have the upper energy more strung out than the GGEM and GFS which didn't let the warm nose get as far north. It also didn't dig as much south compared to the other 12z models. At least we now have something to track and the models are coming into a better consensus of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Just looking at the Euro ensembles, they still show a 2 to 4+ inch mean across the entire state of TN (gradient from south to north), BUT there are several more members with a track to our north and west. I didn't want to see that, but I guess we can hug the OP run for about 10 more hours (or in my case 15 since I won't stay up for it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Just looking at the Euro ensembles, they still show a 2 to 4+ inch mean across the entire state of TN (gradient from south to north), BUT there are several more members with a track to our north and west. I didn't want to see that, but I guess we can hug the OP run for about 10 more hours (or in my case 15 since I won't stay up for it) Yeah it's an uneasy feeling to be seeing such good things 7 days away. At least we have the 3 major models mostly on board with a storm following crazy cold air. Most of the times these fantasy clowns have been just a flash in the pan. It'll be interesting to see the next couple of runs to see if there is consistency. We're all thirsty for something to track, lawdy mercy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Anything is still on the table,the gefs is taking it through W/TN,the last thing you want to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 We will need to place our hopes in longer lasting cold. If the system is weak enough (that appears to be a distinct possibility) we can place our hopes on a nice overrunning event with limited WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 MRX's afternoon discussion. I haven't read one of these things all winter lol. THE MAIN WEATHER OF CONCERN IS STILL BEING ADVERTISED AS ARRIVINGLATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SHOWNTO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY...WITH GOOD AGREEMENTBETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF...TAKING THIS LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULFCOAST STATES ON TUESDAY.A LARGE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP AND SHOULD SPREADPRECIPITATION INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS FROM 06ZTUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE REAL PROBLEM THIS CREATES IS DUETO THE COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. IF THE TRACK OF THE LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM STAYS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS CURRENTLY INDICATED...THEN A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR. UNDERCUT THE MAX TEMP GRIDFOR TUESDAY TO ADVERTISE MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS INTHE HWO PRODUCT...AND WATCH AS WEEKEND DRAWS CLOSER TO FINE TUNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 So is there any mechanism that could budge this thing south over time or can we expect the typical NW trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 We will need to place our hopes in longer lasting cold. If the system is weak enough (that appears to be a distinct possibility) we can place our hopes on a nice overrunning event with limited WAA. Yes, or we would need to the precip to move in faster before the cold gets shoved out. I would like to see in future runs the vortex/low in the northeast hold on as long as it can. We don't have a -NAO to help us out but this vortex could act like a pseudo -NAO if the timing is right. This would help to suppress the storm track. I would also like to see the upper energy flatter to keep the warm nose and further northwest track out of question. More digging of that shortwave will mean a bigger storm and a bigger warm nose. That is my biggest concern (our track of the low and associated warm nose trend northwest). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 So is there any mechanism that could budge this thing south over time or can we expect the typical NW trend? Need to hold the tall ridge out west and it doesn't need to migrate ANY further west. In fact, a little east of 12z would be great. Need the storm to absolutely blow up and crawl off the northeast coast this weekend. Need the incoming high this weekend to be strong and for it to run into the roadblock thrown out by the storm mentioned above. We can score with a Miller B (which this will likely be), but I'd really like to see the high coming behind it to speed up by 12-24 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 There are 31/51 individual eps members that show 2+ inches of snow for Gallatin in northern middle TN. The mean is showing over 4 inches and the OP is near 10. These are all increases from 0z. I look at this area b/c it's where I grew up.Interestingly, northeast TN individuals actually decreased, though still a great signal for wintry weather. 33 individuals have over 2 inches that begin between 120 and 168. The OP has over 9 inches for KTRI through day 10 with a mean around 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I was just about to post that BNA's ensemble chart was lit up like a Christmas tree. 12 members with over 6 inches of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 At his point, anything could happen. I will watch closely the trend tomorrow. I think we had one good run last time, and then it moved 300 miles to the north. For example, the last one of these that looked good went to Detroit. However, over time the southern track is a realistic track, meaning late season favors a more southern track(Gamble says this). Again, climo and Nino are nice cards to have in hand at this point. The CPC ensembles show the NAO taking a pretty significant dip(all of the way to neutral, if not a bit negative) right after mid-month. The signal for a storm is there. If not this one, then one upcoming. With the brutal Arctice air in place, I am very concerned about an ice storm. Looks like a pretty wild pattern on the way. Maybe this will be one of these winters where winter begins Mid-February and rolls into March. Certainly is beginning to get that feel. Like I said...I hate Nino winters. They require massive amounts of patience as most Nino winters don't deliver the goods until late in the season - if at all. Edit...Don't take that as a negative. I have stated recently I am bullish on the upcoming pattern and remain equally so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 0z GFS wasn't a good run. Advertises an apps runner that is mostly rain. A lot of QPF though. 0z GGEM was much better. Most of the state is in the 4-6 inch range. It comes in 2 waves looks like. The southeast gets hit with a big ice storm. Let's see what Dr. No has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 0z GFS wasn't a good run. Advertises an apps runner that is mostly rain. A lot of QPF though. 0z GGEM was much better. Most of the state is in the 4-6 inch range. It comes in 2 waves looks like. The southeast gets hit with a big ice storm. Let's see what Dr. No has to say. Considering how bad the OP has sucked lately at this time frame, I'd rather have the ensemble support. That being said, it's really a long way out so I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Serious case of deja vu... Earlier models Snow Snow, then now cutter (of sorts), with follow up deep south snow. My guess is the coming models will be all rain with back side flurries and no deep south snow. That is if what seems to be the repeat over and over with models this winter continues. Craziness... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Man that 0z GGEM was wild. Snow: Sleet: Ice: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That would be the worst ice storm in Chattanooga in my lifetime, were it to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It's worth mentioning that the 0z UKMET brought the goods for the Tuesday storm. Covered pretty much all of TN with 4 to 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It's worth mentioning that the 0z UKMET brought the goods for the Tuesday storm. Covered pretty much all of TN with 4 to 6 inches. So, from the 0z runs it's the GFS/Euro vs Ukie/CMC. 12z GFS is rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So, from the 0z runs it's the GFS/Euro vs Ukie/CMC. 12z GFS is rolling. If it's going to trend away from the past day or so and toward something wintry, it will likely begin to do so in the next 24-36 hours. Time will tell. Maybe the initial system goes to our west, then sets the table for Thursday"ish" next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 If it's going to trend away from the past day or so and toward something wintry, it will likely begin to do so in the next 24-36 hours. Time will tell. Maybe the initial system goes to our west, then sets the table for Thursday"ish" next week. The low behind the Tuesday system might get the job done (similar to 6z). It'll be interesting to see how that progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Looks like the valley finagles 2 or 3 inches of snow on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Looks like the valley finagles 2 or 3 inches of snow on the backside. Some on our board (sw VA) may work themselves into a front end thump of some kind. That part will be interesting to follow for them. I hate relying on anything on the backside of a storm system. They almost never work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Definite shift back to the S,the ratios should be decent also,so what Stove said you'd probably bump up a lil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 We definitely need to root for something weaker and flatter with this. Similar to what the UKMet is showing, not the Euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 We definitely need to root for something weaker and flatter with this. Similar to what the UKMet is showing, not the Euro and GFS. I agree,we don't want to see this wrap up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Crazy ice storm for much of TN on the 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Crazy ice storm for much of TN on the 12z GGEM. Looks like a front end sleet/zr to rain, then back to ice topped with a little snow on the GGEM today. Kentucky gets buried. Lucky them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The ggem maps suggest a decent backside snow, 2 or 3 inches with more towards the KY border, but who knows. At least it cut farther east over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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