tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The SREF mean has crept up slightly for Thursday, Nashville and Knoxville are now both a little over an inch. For this past Monday the mean was about a dusting which is what we ended up with. I thought BNA would have a better chance with this system (if you can call it that), is downsloping cutting totals for KTRI? I also think the timing on this could create slick spots and school issues on Thursday morning for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I thought BNA would have a better chance with this system (if you can call it that), is downsloping cutting totals for KTRI? I also think the timing on this could create slick spots and school issues on Thursday morning for some. Yeah, based on the school dismissals we saw over the dusting, an actual half to one inch falling when temps are 29 or so could result in widespread closings. It would suit me fine. No reason to risk it, and it's not uncommon to have buses in ditches with as little as that much snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Not sure about the end of next week,the GFS wants to hang around the bajas again while the euro does not.Thermal questions like normal,but still we are talking long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 0z Euro was pretty lame, the op has like one brief cold snap next week. The control has light snow in north Georgia and western Carolinas. The mean has light snow in east TN. The upside of the recent modeling for me is that I may get my greens in the ground early this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Just checking the 0z Euro from last night and I noticed two main clusters for low locations at day 6. One set from ne NC to se Virginia and another set from eastern GA into SC. Not trying to give false hope,and I know it's a long shot, but if the second set is in play, then east TN/western NC might have something to at least keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Still nada tonight from the GFS, CMC, EURO. GFS looked very cold throughout most of the run. The CMC and Euro had some interesting looks at 500 mb out west. Chance for a bigger phasing solution 240+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Gotta pull for the weeklies,it kicks out the cut off from the SW much faster than what the other models are showing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 GFS is kicking the cut off out much quicker today.It's not the greatest run but by far the best we've seen in the past few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 GFS is kicking the cut off out much quicker today.It's not the greatest run but by far the best we've seen in the past few. Just don't go forward from there to see what it does at 5h beyond 222 and you will be good, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Nice run for the Euro at 12z days 8-10. Would be nice if this setup wasn't a mirage for once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 0z Euro op was a miss but not terribly far off. The ensemble mean covered the entire valley in 2 to 4 inches while the control was an east TN hit. The individual members look pretty dang good at the 200 hour mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 0z GGEM isn't far off for the 200 hour mark either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Single digits on the GFS while Euro and CMC go for low to mid teens Sunday morning...nothing good on storm front and I won't bring myself to even say that it looks like it could be good after...The winter of our discontent continues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Single digits on the GFS while Euro and CMC go for low to mid teens Sunday morning...nothing good on storm front and I won't bring myself to even say that it looks like it could be good after...The winter of our discontent continues.... Obligatory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Not trying to give false hope, but for several runs in a row the GFS has tried to drop a bit of snow on east TN this Thursday. The Cobb is showing an inch for TRI and a half for TYS. It's probably a northwest flow favored area thing so likely only a few flakes in the air at best for central valley but it's worth mentioning (this winter). SREF indicates a dusting. John's house will likely get 2 inches. If he drives to Nooga, 40 north will definately have a white ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I am not going back to Nooga until February 28th, so be prepared for have March come in like a lion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I am not going back to Nooga until February 28th, so be prepared for have March come in like a lion. Oh no. I'm supposed to go to Louisville, KY for an annual militaria show on the 27th. The combination of both our travels can mean only one thing...snowpocalypse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 For KTRI, I noted 39/51 euro ensemble members give greater than 2 inches of snow through their run, the majority of which start around 168-180. Shawn in the SE forum has been giving a breakdown of eps members for various states (TN included). Check it out if you want to see different locations. The 0z GEFS individuals have around 14/15 out of 21 with greater than 3 inch snows across a widespread area of TN, and the few that don't have snow even further south. With the 6z GFS OP hopping on board, I would hope this is the start of something trackable for the TN Valley. Generally speaking, The 6z GEFS mean shows greater than 2 inches for the eastern half of the state, growing larger the further east and north you go. From Knoxville to Tricities it's showing between 3-4+ It also shows 1-2 inches for much of the rest of the TN Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 If we can avoid any major model flip flopping for a few days in a row I think we have a real shot for this time period. Consistency is key. Like Carver said, we have climo and nino on our side at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 To add to Nut's post about the ensembles, here is the breakdown for a few areas across the valley (0z Euro): 51 total members Big Dog = 6 inches or greater Memphis: Some snow - 35 2 inches or more - 14 Big Dogs - 5 Jackson: Some Snow - 40 2 inches or more - 22 Big Dogs - 6 Nashville: Some Snow - 47 2 inches or more - 26 Big Dogs - 6 Crossville: Some Snow - 50 2 inches or more - 34 Big Dogs - 8 Chattanooga: Some Snow - 46 2 inches or more - 19 Big Dogs - 5 Knoxville: Some Snow - 49 2 inches or more - 26 Big Dogs - 6 Bristol: Some Snow - 50 2 inches or more - 39 Big Dogs - 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 And the hits keep coming, 12z GFS for the win: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 With a bonus clipper cherry on top two days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Way better look today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Big time arctic air settling in too...some of that may be snow cover driven but that is nasty.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 12z GGEM is a mess of precip types. There's a 1 inch band of sleet from Nashville to the upper Cumberland as well as NW TN, 3/4's inch of ice around TRI, and a mix of everything across the valley. NC looks to get the worst of the ice on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 12z GGEM is a mess of precip types. There's a 1 inch band of sleet from Nashville to the upper Cumberland as well as NW TN, 3/4's inch of ice around TRI, and a mix of everything across the valley. NC looks to get the worst of the ice on that run. Yeah lots of QPF on the GGEM today. Big storm on that run. Awesome run on the 12z GFS. Really close on the GGEM on big snows. 1 foot plus covers most of Kentucky. I like the signals we are seeing for a bigger storm today. Good trends. Maybe the discount tent won't be on sale anymore after this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 And the Euro goes Boom.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 EPIC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I don't have the vertical profiles but 3-6 in east TN followed by IP or ZR at face value....In Reality...this will be on an Indianapolis to Pittsburgh line by the weekend though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 12z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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