John1122 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I really hope one of these inside a week actually verifies. I haven't seen this many misses inside 180 in a few years. Just tough patterns this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I really hope one of these inside a week actually verifies. I haven't seen this many misses inside 180 in a few years. Just tough patterns this year. if the weeklies are right,we better cash in these next three weeks,not much cold into S/Canada,not saying it wont get cold again,but i'm just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 looking at the free maps,the euro switched to the gefs,sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 odd to say the GFS seems to be right all along,that was a big change where the Euro had the HP placed it shifted a good 200 miles at least to the W the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 we need that HP towards Iowa or even west of it,nice shift though from todays models,it buckles the N/jt like the GFS has been showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Once again,you should ignore the clown snow maps,the 850's are fantastic on the euro with the 2m's we should be loking at 12-15:1 ratios,awesome run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Once again,you should ignore the clown snow maps,the 850's are fantastic on the euro with the 2m's we should be loking at 12-15:1 ratios,awesome run I agree, I like the way things are looking at this point; I think Middle TN is in a good position this early in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 East TN isn't bad either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nashville overnight disco: DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LEAD US INTO THURSDAY. THEEURO...WHICH HAS BEEN THE DRIER OF THE TWO EXTENDED SOLUTIONS ISFINALLY COMING AROUND TO THE GFS AGAIN. THIS SEEMS TO BE A RUNNINGTREND LATELY. THE DOWNSIDE OF THIS...WE COULD BE IN FOR MORE WINTRYWEATHER THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW BY12Z THURSDAY AND WHILE QPFS AREN`T IMPRESSIVE WITH THE WEAK FRONTTHAT PUSHES INTO THE AREA...SOME SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THEDAY ON THURSDAY. Morristown was more like, ehh a front is going to come through, aint nobody got time for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 If this panned out.... 2 feet of snow on the SC beaches!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 not very impressive this afternoon,only .07 qpfs showing for BNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 ... and virtually evaporates on the 12Z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I do have to say though the NAM is just starting to model this as its on the outer edge of NAM modeling, but I do like what I see at H84 on the NAM. That is to say I like the placements of the Lows, as it looks more like the sort of double barrel Lows tracking through. Again just looking at H84 to try to guess H90 and so on... Can't wait for the next few model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Live by the models, die by the models. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Here is why I like the NAM at H84... The low at the southeastern tip of LA is nearly stationary and juicy. The Low in the panhandle of TX is sliding southeast rapidly, literally modeled as moving from northeastern CO to the Panhandle of TX in 6 Hours. The energy and cold behind it are modeled moving southeast at a nearly impressive clip. If that low at the tip of LA can stay nearly stationary or move very slow and there is no reason why it wouldn't move very slowly until its caught by the energy moving southeast out of the plains we still have a decent shot at something out of this, or at least someone in the greater SE US has a chance at something out of this I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I would just love to reel in one of these looks to 24 hours out without a major model shift. Right now we get perfect runs, OTS runs and cutters all in 48 hour periods with systems this year, of course, none have worked out. But hope springs eternal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The GEM looks pretty good, tracks a low across the N. GOM, drops energy down above it and gives a few inches of snow to the western half of the Valley. But as modeled, I'd like the track for all of us. It doesn't have nearly the precip shield that a N.GOM low produces, which is often a model issue as has been well discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nashville NWS Afternoon disco: .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT CONDITIONS COULD GO DOWNHILLWEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE STILLHAVING TROUBLE WITH THE SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IT COULDBE DRY...OR THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE MAINISSUE IS HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING A GULF COAST LOW PRESSURESYSTEM...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...A POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORTWAVETHAT WILL BE COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE DETAILS WILLWILL NOT BE WELL MODELED FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS AT LEAST. FORNOW...WE WILL STICK WITH A LOW-MID CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW. MODELSARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INWEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOOKS DRY WITH A WARMING TRENDFRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER WAVE COULD BRING SHOWERS BYSUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The 18 Z NAM at 84H still shows a good possibility of the shortwave energy in the plains possibly interacting with our Gulf low. The low is very slow moving still on the 18Z still over the N gulf, and appears to be on a potentially slow NE trek across SE GA. IF we can get that GOM low to throw some moisture back into that energy as it moves across the Tennessee Valley region we could get decent snows across most of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Definitely liking the positioning the GFS is showing of our GOM low and our shortwave at H72 as compared to H72 on the NAM... So far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 And the GFS just squashes it out into the the GOM... Suppression extraordinaire! The GFS has that Plains High move further south faster just pushing all moisture out. The NAM has the high placed further north when comparing frames.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Suppression hasn't been much of a problem all year long. I wouldn't expect it to be this time either but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I'm not sure why people are even mentioning the gulf low. There is no shot with the gilf low. The only shot we have is the shortwave digging down the backside of the teough. Problem is all guidance is too flat with the ridge not allowing it to dig . If the 00z NAM is A trend we have a huge 00z set fail incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I'm not sure why people are even mentioning the gulf low. There is no shot with the gilf low. The only shot we have is the shortwave digging down the backside of the teough. Problem is all guidance is too flat with the ridge not allowing it to dig . If the 00z NAM is A trend we have a huge 00z set fail incoming My mentioning of the Gulf Low isn't to hope for a miller. I know that isn't likely, but for Tennessee, anything in the gulf to help enhance/transport moisture northward to our region for the shortwave helps. So the Low is important, not for a mega miller, as that just doesn't appear in the cards. 0Z GFS has nicely upped the QPF for the Tennessee Valley Region, back to a sort of 1-3 inch event for most of the region. Who knows maybe a trend back toward the wetter GFS runs we saw back a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 H78 and H84 respectively 0Z GFS. Best runs for the Tennessee Valley Region since the 6Z 2/1. Maybe the beginning of trending back to a little more qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 12z GFS is basically a dry frontal passage. Edit: Canadian is too . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 12z GFS is basically a dry frontal passage. gfs_apcpn_us_13.png Edit: Canadian is too canadian too.png. Euro looks good for light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY WED MORNINGASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUE EVENING TO THE CNTRL PLAINS WED EVENING~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM / 12Z CMCCONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW HERE...GIVEN ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDEDDEEPER WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST THU MORNING...WHILEOVER THE SAME TIME...GEFS MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER. BY LATETHU...THE GFS AND GEFS REPRESENT A FLATTER/FASTER IDEA...WHILE THEECMWF/UKMET HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPRESENTED A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPERTROUGH OVER THEIR PAST 3 MODEL CYCLES. THE GFS IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER ACROSS THE WEST COAST WITH A WEAKERUPPER RIDGE LATE THU...CONSISTENT DOWNSTREAM WITH A FLATTERTROUGH. SINCE THE GFS HAS LITTLE SUPPORT ACROSS THE WEST COAST ATTHIS TIME...THE GFS/GEFS SOLUTION WILL BE CONSIDERED A LOWPROBABILITY OF VERIFYING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/UKMET REMAIN QUITEDEEP WITH THEIR 12Z CYCLES AND GIVEN RECENT INCONSISTENCIES IN THEECMWF MODEL...WE DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING TOWARD THE MOREAMPLIFIED IDEA DESPITE UKMET SUPPORT. N THE MIDDLE...WE HAVE THE12Z NAM AND 12Z CMC...HENCE THE PREFERENCE. The NAM 18z did a total flip,it's much more juiced up than it's recent runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Morristown mentioning the possible pull of moisture from the gulf. Granted still limited moisture. THE GFS KEEPS THE SOUTHERN WAVESUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH ONLY GIVING US THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITHTHE NW SYSTEM TO WORK WITH. THE NAM BRINGS THE SOUTHERN WAVESLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO TAP INTO TO SOME OFITS MOISTURE. EVEN IF THE NAM IS THE CORRECT MODEL THERE ISN`T A TONOF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE PRECIP MAY START AS SNOW ATTRI...ESPECIALLY FOR ALL POINTS NORTHWARD. A RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITIONLOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY AROUND 09/12Z AND THESOUTHERN VALLEY AROUND 12Z. HIGH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 30SNORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE EARLY MORNING HIGHSAS TEMPS DROP BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The SREF mean has crept up slightly for Thursday, Nashville and Knoxville are now both a little over an inch. For this past Monday the mean was about a dusting which is what we ended up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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