Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link for SREF plumes Click around on the map and check out your location's snow, temps, etc. The possibilities are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It is not uncommon for a low to track through the Valley and jump to the coast. I think the main energy goes south with a bit of energy coming up west and creating a warm nose. That low tracks over us...crazy stuff can happen though. I just don't think the story is written. The NAO is moving towards negative which signals a storm. So things are yet to unfold. The next three weeks should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The NAM continues to be the western outlier on the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 How about a Reelfoot Lake cutter on that 0z GFS? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 How about a Reelfoot Lake cutter on that 0z GFS? LOL Yup,the northward trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well onto the next storm... December 2015?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 0z Euro is a dumpster fire. Aside from one decent cold shot there is nothing of interest, even the mean and control were terribad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The GFS meteograms for the past two runs are actually showing a couple of inches at TYS, TRI, and even MKL at 11:1. Of course the Cobb is next to nothing but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 To state the obvious, modeling depicts a cutter...stick a fork in the weekend system. Not good trends in the LR as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 WPC this morn ...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS REACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY01/1200Z......SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD... FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWFFORECAST CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE A BAND OF HEIGHT FALLS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRALPLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE FORECASTGIVEN THE THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION FROM THE CENTER OF THECONUS EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS WAS THE CASEYESTERDAY...THE QUICKER AND MORE AMPLIFIED 00Z/12Z UKMET SUPPORTSURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT THAT IS MORE DEFINED AND NORTH OF THEMODEL ENVELOPE. THIS RESULTS IN A NORTHWARD DISPLACEDPRECIPITATION AXIS ON DAY 2. AS TIME MOVES FORWARD...TIMINGDIFFERENCES PREVAIL WITH THE 00Z UKMET CONTINUING TO BE QUICKERRESULTING IN THE SURFACE WAVE BEING OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND BY 02/1200Z. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM/CMC BEING SLOWERRESULT IN TIMING ISSUES. THE MODELS DO CONTINUE TO WAFFLE ASEVIDENT BY THE 00Z GFS WHICH SHIFTED ITS LOW TRACK BY A COUPLEHUNDRED MILES ON MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF DIDFOLLOW THIS MOVE NORTHWARD WHICH COULD BE THE LATEST TREND TO ATLEAST CONSIDER. A SNEAKING SUSPICION SAYS THE 12Z GUIDANCE WILLCOME BACK SOUTH BUT FEEL THE FORECAST AT LEAST SHOULD CONSIDERWHAT THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT. WILL PRESENT A BLEND OF THE 00ZGFS/ECMWF BUT MAINTAINING THE AFOREMENTIONED BELOW AVERAGECONFIDENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Jaxjagman, the pattern isn't setup for us this winter. Don't know what else to say. If we had a decent -ao or nao we would be in great shape. Its not there or very weakly negative. Perhaps march offers a ULL that sometimes happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm not ready to write off February by any means. It would be different if the models were half way decent in the long range and we had some semblance of confidence that the next 4 weeks will suck. But we can barely get in the ball park with storms inside of 5 days with these things. All options are on the table as far as I'm concerned with February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It's looking better. I kind of want to wait until I see the SREF plumes as well. I worry that it's the outliers of the models that are pulling the mean of the meteograms higher than they should be. It'd be nice if we had a surprise though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The meteograms and plumes are down to a dusting to half inch today for east TN. No surprise really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z GFS has the Friday storm at 2 to 3 inches statewide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is the year of the 5-6 day fantasty storm. I have no faith at all that it will happen. But I generally always get at least one 3-4 inch snow every winter. Even if it takes until March or even April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z GFS has the Friday storm at 2 to 3 inches statewide. Very close to being much more. If the timing is off even a little, southern stream slows or northern stream is quicker, that storm could be much stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Very close to being much more. If the timing is off even a little, southern stream slows or northern stream is quicker, that storm could be much stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 250MB winds for mid next weeks storm the GFS is sharper,the euro is cutting trough the valley and dampening out.The euro today IMO trended better as you can look at the reflection maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Has to phase for anything to happen. Potential is still surely there. 12z Euro is close on several occasions. Much better look than we have had all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We'll hit one of these storms hopefully,there is even a threat both the GFS and euro is showing around the 8th,the cold air looks stagnant right now,but none the less it's there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's about half and half for next weekend looking at the members of the gefs,but the gefs mean sure looks euroish NW flow that will shear our system out mid week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 pretty bad though the models have no semblance in mid range #dontknowwhatwillhappen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 we seem to have another player on board for the mid week storm,hello GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 GEFS seems to have moved the HP in eastern Iowa to western Iowa this allows the N/JT to carve more by the looks of the map per recent runs.It also lifts the LP in the GOM more northward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 good thing for Nashville we are on the northern edge?Does it matter for us?.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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